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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 11, 2024

[ Thursday, October 10, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 12, 2024 ]

DAY 11 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2024 12:00:01 AM

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.99°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 36.97°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.98°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.773
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:


Forecasted temperatures from DarkSky
DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 420

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)

Forecasted precipitation from DarkSky
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 83
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 349.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.

Forecasted snow from DarkSky
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 91

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025119154.98636.96845.9770001.171.17FF22.986419.98683349.798064486100.773452823453211644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 20:00:02FORECAST2025119154.9538.8446.8950001.171.17FF22.95420.9583349.798064486100.772430342322371644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 16:00:02FORECAST2025119155.52638.94847.2370001.171.17FF23.526421.52683349.798064486100.788476038295621644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025119155.45438.46246.9580001.171.17FF23.454421.45483349.798064486100.786507240669291644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025119154.7739.48847.1290001.171.17FF22.77419.7783349.798064486100.767279208478441644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025119154.53639.63247.0840001.171.17FF22.536420.53683349.798064486100.760487088625321644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-10 00:00:02FORECAST2025119154.10439.07446.589000.021.171.19FF22.104418.10483349.798064486100.747668874007821644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025119153.1539.93846.544000.031.171.2FF21.15417.1583349.798064486100.718132302874411644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2025119153.2439.86646.553000.031.171.2FF21.24417.2483349.798064486100.720988362148371644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025119153.65438.9346.292000.031.171.2FF21.654417.65483349.798064486100.73394218630671644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025119153.70838.9346.319000.041.171.21FF21.708417.70883349.798064486100.735609110891821644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:04FORECAST2025119151.87238.2145.041000.031.171.2FF19.872413.87283349.798064486100.676135115575031634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025119154.06839.0246.544000.031.191.22FF22.068410.06883349.798064486100.746584625086541644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025119153.639.05646.328000.011.191.2FF21.6410.683349.798064486100.732269962328431644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025119154.3239.54246.931000.021.191.21FF22.32413.3283349.798064486100.754122743721621644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025119154.2339.8347.03000.011.191.2FF22.23413.2383349.798064486100.751444430503141644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025119155.3140.44247.876000.011.181.19FF23.31416.3183349.798064486100.782537825896941644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025119155.02240.6447.8310001.191.19FF23.022417.02283349.798064486100.774472710511581644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025119153.67240.87447.2730001.191.19FF21.672411.67283349.798064486100.734498417951521644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025119153.6940.80247.2460001.191.19FF21.69411.6983349.798064486100.73505405980181644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025119153.97841.947.9390001.191.19FF21.978413.97883349.798064486100.743863342877321644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025119151.54840.53246.0400.366141930.406141931.181.58614193FF19.548409.54883349.798064486100.665091585738311634325250DRYMH
2024-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025119149.89240.31645.10400.2503938360.3103938361.181.490393836FF17.892405.89283349.798064486100.606580305498051634325250DRYMH
2024-10-07 04:00:05FORECAST2025119151.40439.84845.62600.1858268720.2258268721.181.405826872FF19.404406.40483349.798064486100.660136448427191634325250DRYMH
2024-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025119153.90640.62247.264000.031.21.23FF21.906409.90683349.798064486100.741675410940571644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025119151.63839.6545.64400.0070866180.1270866181.21.327086618FF19.638405.63883349.798064486100.668174092001281634325250DRYMH
2024-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025119150.37840.96445.67100.2665355770.4065355771.191.596535577FF18.378404.37883349.798064486100.624072425036881634325250DRYMH
2024-10-06 12:00:03FORECAST2025119146.11235.7840.94600.3527560960.4827560961.191.672756096FF14.112395.11283349.798064486100.465882503496561624225240DRYM
2024-10-06 08:00:03FORECAST2025119146.09435.76240.92800.35433090.45433091.181.6343309FF14.094395.09483349.798064486100.465208647166651624225240DRYM
2024-10-06 04:00:05FORECAST2025119144.43834.39439.41600.2862206270.3762206271.211.586220627FF12.438390.43883349.798064486100.403886521987861624225240DRYM
2024-10-06 00:00:03FORECAST2025119143.82631.31637.57100.0858268180.2058268181.211.415826818FF11.826380.82683349.798064486100.381728208884891624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025119143.35831.20837.28300.0811024060.1911024061.21.391102406FF11.358378.35883349.798064486100.365037122613821624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025119144.56432.28838.42600.1712599350.2412599351.241.481259935FF12.564381.56483349.798064486100.408489653208061624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025119147.13835.83441.48600.0224409570.0224409571.221.242440957FF15.138391.13883349.798064486100.504394406301861634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025119146.07635.27640.676000.011.21.21FF14.076389.07683349.798064486100.464534890587511624215220DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:05FORECAST2025119146.83236.33841.585000.011.191.2FF14.832392.83283349.798064486100.492896403024451624215220DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:04FORECAST2025119148.25436.03242.14300.0169291430.0569291431.711.766929143FF16.254390.25483349.798064486100.546226154626751634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025119148.52436.26642.39500.0094488240.1094488241.881.989448824FF16.524392.52483349.798064486100.556287727337341634225245DRYM
2024-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025119148.57835.61842.09800.0161417410.1361417411.882.016141741FF16.578385.57883349.798064486100.558295906984931634225245DRYM
2024-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025119147.71433.72840.72100.015748040.105748041.881.98574804FF15.714385.71483349.798064486100.526020193511781634225245DRYM
2024-10-04 08:00:03FORECAST2025119151.1737.92244.546000.071.982.05FF19.17386.1783349.798064486100.652025381874631634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:05FORECAST2025119148.88436.64442.76400.0716535820.1216535821.952.071653582FF16.884380.88483349.798064486100.569645822888221634225245DRYM
2024-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025119148.1137.74242.92600.5185042170.5785042171.992.568504217FF16.11380.1183349.798064486100.540847405941751634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025119146.72438.42642.57500.5653546360.5953546361.832.425354636FF14.724379.72483349.798064486100.488839201181291624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025119146.20239.27242.73700.4972443630.5572443631.792.347244363FF14.202381.20283349.798064486100.469253214095961624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 12:00:04FORECAST2025119147.5741.4544.5100.3055119760.5055119761.752.255511976FF15.57393.5783349.798064486100.520618438269871634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST2025119148.0744144.53700.2925198430.5125198431.772.282519843FF16.074403.07483349.798064486100.539501510547041634335275DRYVH
2024-10-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025119148.2938.58843.43900.5220475260.6920475261.862.552047526FF16.29406.2983349.798064486100.547569557204531634335275DRYVH
2024-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST2025119144.16836.19440.18100.5901577990.6301577991.772.400157799FF12.168390.16883349.798064486100.394068128561881624235260DRYH
2024-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025119145.80637.59841.70200.3685041360.4285041361.692.118504136FF13.806391.80683349.798064486100.454441816400561624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025119145.30234.44839.87500.2385828060.2985828061.511.808582806FF13.302394.30283349.798064486100.435684836384081624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST2025119150.0936.3243.20500.1547244930.2647244931.721.984724493FF18.09399.0983349.798064486100.613734940089741634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025119150.0936.3243.20500.1547244930.2647244931.721.984724493FF18.09400.0983349.798064486100.613734940089741634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025119146.92236.62641.77400.0417323060.1117323061.621.731732306FF14.922403.92283349.798064486100.496277983831111624325245DRYM
2024-10-02 04:00:07FORECAST2025119146.92236.62641.77400.0417323060.1117323061.711.821732306FF14.922403.92283349.798064486100.496277983831111624325245DRYM
2024-10-02 00:00:03FORECAST2025119146.2237.77841.99900.0484252230.0484252231.921.968425223FF14.22412.2283349.798064486100.469927628532021624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-01 20:00:04FORECAST2025119148.36244.29446.3280001.931.93FF16.362428.36283349.798064486100.550254714178791634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025119148.52444.4246.4720001.951.95FF16.524425.52483349.798064486100.556287727337341634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 12:00:05FORECAST2025119151.27847.55249.4150001.711.71FF19.278439.27883349.798064486100.655777866753271634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 08:00:04FORECAST2025119143.98837.63440.81100.1267717220.1967717221.671.866771722FF11.988418.98883349.798064486100.389217811107871624325245DRYM
2024-10-01 04:00:06FORECAST2025119143.95242.4443.19600.0413386050.1813386051.651.831338605FF11.952416.95283349.798064486100.387914952459731624325245DRYM