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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, October 10, 2024

[ Wednesday, October 9, 2024 | Index | Today | Friday, October 11, 2024 ]

DAY 10 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/11/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.47°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 30.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.57°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.691
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 428

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.17 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.17 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 84
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 350.74 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 90

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-11 04:00:03OBSERVATION2025109054.4699430.6699842.569960001.171.17FF22.46994428.4699484350.7390628119 00.6909494929591316 34315225DRYL
2024-10-11 00:00:01FORECAST2025109048.8328.18438.5070001.171.17FF16.83422.8383349.798064486100.495713945770491624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-10 12:00:01FORECAST2025109050.16230.07440.1180001.171.17FF18.162424.16283349.798064486100.543610786893761634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 08:00:02FORECAST2025109049.3729.89439.6320001.171.17FF17.37423.3783349.798064486100.515163242553611634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 04:00:03FORECAST2025109049.85630.77640.3160001.171.17FF17.856423.85683349.798064486100.532638130261471634315225DRYL
2024-10-10 00:00:01FORECAST2025109051.02630.8340.928000.021.171.19FF19.026422.02684350.739062811900.574386519007391634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 20:00:02FORECAST2025109050.1830.8340.505000.031.171.2FF18.18422.1884350.739062811900.544255285465941634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 16:00:01FORECAST2025109050.12630.7440.433000.031.171.2FF18.126422.12684350.739062811900.542321447185621634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 12:00:02FORECAST2025109049.85630.68640.271000.031.171.2FF17.856421.85684350.739062811900.532638130261471634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 08:00:02FORECAST2025109049.78430.34440.064000.041.171.21FF17.784421.78484350.739062811900.5300524073781634315225DRYL
2024-10-09 04:00:03FORECAST2025109048.72230.2939.506000.031.171.2FF16.722419.72284350.739062811900.491823829366871624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-09 00:00:02FORECAST2025109049.17230.03839.605000.051.171.22FF17.172414.17284350.739062811900.508033573907651634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 20:00:02FORECAST2025109049.49630.52440.01000.031.171.2FF17.496415.49684350.739062811900.519697925639961634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 16:00:02FORECAST2025109050.4532.41441.432000.041.171.21FF18.45417.4584350.739062811900.553907852911761634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 12:00:02FORECAST2025109050.21632.941.558000.031.171.2FF18.216417.21684350.739062811900.545543931637971634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 08:00:02FORECAST2025109050.97233.06242.017000.021.171.19FF18.972418.97284350.739062811900.572474261996091634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 04:00:04FORECAST2025109051.96232.46842.215000.021.171.19FF19.962419.96284350.739062811900.607217189322941634315225DRYL
2024-10-08 00:00:02FORECAST2025109051.65632.30641.981000.021.171.19FF19.656415.65684350.739062811900.596555626809391634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 20:00:02FORECAST2025109051.85433.13442.494000.021.171.19FF19.854415.85484350.739062811900.603463012571181634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 16:00:02FORECAST2025109052.55634.10643.331000.021.171.19FF20.556417.55684350.739062811900.62767865261481634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 12:00:02FORECAST2025109052.23233.2642.746000.051.171.22FF20.232416.23284350.739062811900.616558403462941634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 08:00:02FORECAST2025109051.0832.34241.711000.071.171.24FF19.08414.0884350.739062811900.576297028222561634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 04:00:04FORECAST2025109050.2732.97241.621000.051.171.22FF18.27413.2784350.739062811900.547475998267511634315225DRYL
2024-10-07 00:00:03FORECAST2025109051.54834.05242.8000.061.171.23FF19.548413.54884350.739062811900.592775080186381634315225DRYL
2024-10-06 20:00:02FORECAST2025109050.73833.72842.233000.151.171.32FF18.738411.73884350.739062811900.56416869137411634325250DRYMH
2024-10-06 16:00:02FORECAST2025109051.0833.2642.17000.161.171.33FF19.08412.0884350.739062811900.576297028222561634325250DRYMH
2024-10-06 12:00:02FORECAST2025109046.83230.07438.453000.151.171.32FF14.832406.83284350.739062811900.424199562466161624325245DRYM
2024-10-06 08:00:02FORECAST2025109046.65230.63238.642000.111.171.28FF14.652406.65284350.739062811900.417842771577881624325245DRYM
2024-10-06 04:00:04FORECAST2025109045.17630.03837.607000.131.171.3FF13.176404.17684350.739062811900.366665633616211624325245DRYM
2024-10-06 00:00:02FORECAST2025109041.2729.82235.54600.0169291430.1569291431.171.326929143FF9.27395.2784350.739062811900.244018788326591614225235DRYL
2024-10-05 20:00:03FORECAST2025109041.43230.21835.82500.0185039470.1385039471.171.308503947FF9.432393.43284350.739062811900.248631596645561614225235DRYL
2024-10-05 16:00:02FORECAST2025109041.66629.0335.34800.015748040.105748041.21.30574804FF9.666394.66684350.739062811900.255375558889961624225240DRYM
2024-10-05 12:00:03FORECAST2025109046.47233.78240.127000.021.21.22FF14.472402.47284350.739062811900.411507371292771624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:02FORECAST2025109046.32833.51239.92000.041.171.21FF14.328401.32884350.739062811900.406455524743361624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:04FORECAST2025109048.30835.09641.702000.031.171.2FF16.308404.30884350.739062811900.476922151808761624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:03FORECAST2025109047.22836.28441.756000.061.691.75FF15.228400.22884350.739062811900.438251831272171624315222.5DRYL
2024-10-04 20:00:03FORECAST2025109049.29836.98643.14200.0732283860.1132283861.871.983228386FF17.298402.29884350.739062811900.512571076616261634325250DRYMH
2024-10-04 16:00:03FORECAST2025109046.95836.6841.81900.0889764260.1289764261.871.998976426FF14.958394.95884350.739062811900.428661181000621624225240DRYM
2024-10-04 12:00:03FORECAST2025109047.33637.47242.40400.0751968910.0951968911.871.965196891FF15.336396.33684350.739062811900.442098596121511624225240DRYM
2024-10-04 08:00:02FORECAST2025109046.92235.4241.17100.0389763990.0789763991.972.048976399FF14.922392.92284350.739062811900.427385476312911624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 04:00:04FORECAST2025109044.85236.48240.66700.0389763990.0489763991.951.998976399FF12.852389.85284350.739062811900.355708039558241624215220DRYL
2024-10-04 00:00:03FORECAST2025109049.38838.80444.09600.0397638010.1097638011.942.049763801FF17.388390.38884350.739062811900.515811188212531634225245DRYM
2024-10-03 20:00:03FORECAST2025109048.32639.30843.817000.081.781.86FF16.326391.32684350.739062811900.477569531137471624215220DRYL
2024-10-03 16:00:03FORECAST2025109047.7538.13842.94400.0263779670.1063779671.741.846377967FF15.75392.7584350.739062811900.456892030972421624225240DRYM
2024-10-03 12:00:03FORECAST2025109050.07239.16444.61800.0503937280.2103937281.741.950393728FF18.072404.07284350.739062811900.540386606466781634325250DRYMH
2024-10-03 08:00:04FORECAST2025109051.36839.99245.6800.0531496350.2331496351.761.993149635FF19.368413.36884350.739062811900.586455091222271634325250DRYMH
2024-10-03 04:00:05FORECAST2025109054.0542.81848.434000.211.822.03FF22.05416.0584350.739062811900.677464894570731634325250DRYMH
2024-10-03 00:00:04FORECAST2025109050.43238.69644.564000.091.721.81FF18.432404.43284350.739062811900.553265276834861634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 20:00:03FORECAST2025109049.94637.88643.916000.111.641.75FF17.946403.94684350.739062811900.535868335478261634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 16:00:03FORECAST2025109050.91838.0344.474000.081.491.57FF18.918406.91884350.739062811900.57056030108081634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST2025109051.69239.66845.6800.0507874290.2507874291.581.830787429FF19.692406.69284350.739062811900.597813825775561634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 12:00:03FORECAST2025109051.69239.66845.6800.0507874290.2507874291.581.830787429FF19.692407.69284350.739062811900.597813825775561634325250DRYMH
2024-10-02 08:00:03FORECAST2025109054.57243.6149.09100.0519685320.0819685321.611.691968532FF22.572414.57284350.739062811900.69418915585711634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 04:00:06FORECAST2025109054.57243.6149.09100.0519685320.0819685321.71.781968532FF22.572414.57284350.739062811900.69418915585711634315225DRYL
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST2025109058.1946.99452.592000.071.851.92FF26.19424.1984350.739062811900.798007394010111644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 20:00:03FORECAST2025109060.31446.6753.4920001.931.93FF28.314438.31484350.739062811900.847656396523851644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 16:00:03FORECAST2025109059.14447.28253.213000.011.941.95FF27.144435.14484350.739062811900.821399381344821644315227.5DRYL
2024-10-01 12:00:05FORECAST2025109063.21246.07654.644000.011.71.71FF31.212446.21284350.739062811900.901205000628711654315230DRYL
2024-10-01 08:00:04FORECAST2025109051.38644.647.99300.070866180.080866181.661.74086618FF19.386433.38684350.739062811900.587403546526311634315225DRYL
2024-10-01 04:00:06FORECAST2025109048.68642.9845.83300.1413386590.1413386591.651.791338659FF16.686430.68684350.739062811900.490949988710731624325245DRYM
2024-10-01 00:00:03FORECAST2025109046.6737.54442.10700.0606299540.0606299541.491.550629954FF14.67429.6784350.739062811900.418964386886181624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-30 20:00:03FORECAST2025109046.77835.04240.91000.011.511.52FF14.778430.77884350.739062811900.42277428793221624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-30 16:00:03FORECAST2025109046.32832.03639.182000.021.61.62FF14.328432.32884350.739062811900.406951368965571624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-30 12:00:04FORECAST2025109038.04833.00835.5280001.181.18FF6.048431.04884350.739062811900.162938197739291614315220DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:04FORECAST2025109045.8642.09843.9790001.171.17FF13.86441.8684350.739062811900.390655444194631624315222.5DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:06FORECAST2025109045.8644.70845.284000.031.181.21FF13.86447.8684350.739062811900.390655444194631624315222.5DRYL