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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, October 5, 2024

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DAY 5 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/06/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.36°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.62°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.99°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.792
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 403

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.20 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.20 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 89
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 355.39 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 85

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-06 04:00:03OBSERVATION202558560.3600831.6200245.990050001.21.2FF28.36008403.3600889355.39078927845 00.791828095399416 44315227.5DRYL
2024-10-06 00:00:01FORECAST202558554.5933.92644.2580001.21.2FF22.59397.5988354.4675011412700.614256164027091634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 12:00:01FORECAST202558554.30233.94444.1230001.21.2FF22.302397.30288354.4675011412700.604248907357761634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 08:00:01FORECAST202558554.12233.29643.7090001.21.2FF22.122397.12288354.4675011412700.597958836402411634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 04:00:03FORECAST202558553.8733.3543.610001.21.2FF21.87396.8788354.4675011412700.58911030366661634215222.5DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202558554.17632.6343.403000.521.21.72FF22.176390.17689355.3907892784500.599848603168641634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 20:00:02FORECAST202558553.632.39642.998000.71.21.9FF21.6389.689355.3907892784500.57957927848111634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 16:00:01FORECAST202558552.86231.22642.044000.71.21.9FF20.862388.86289355.3907892784500.553304898919531634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202558552.77231.65842.215000.71.21.9FF20.772388.77289355.3907892784500.550082232071311634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 08:00:01FORECAST202558551.49430.54241.018000.81.22FF19.494386.49489355.3907892784500.504064473925621634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202558551.830.66841.234000.781.21.98FF19.8385.889355.3907892784500.515110920196631634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-04 00:00:02FORECAST202558551.69229.44440.568000.771.21.97FF19.692381.69289355.3907892784500.511213061648151634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 20:00:01FORECAST202558551.99830.48841.243000.611.21.81FF19.998382.99889355.3907892784500.522252977286091634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 16:00:02FORECAST202558552.1631.17241.666000.571.21.77FF20.16384.1689355.3907892784500.52809127089251634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202558553.94234.77244.357000.571.21.77FF21.942388.94289355.3907892784500.59164329733461634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST202558555.14835.00645.077000.591.21.79FF23.148392.14889355.3907892784500.633425061445811634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 04:00:04FORECAST202558555.29234.95245.12200.0015748040.6515748041.21.851574804FF23.292393.29289355.3907892784500.638320493161091634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202558553.29434.89844.09600.0015748040.5515748041.21.751574804FF21.294396.29489355.3907892784500.568721069281431634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202558553.40235.00644.20400.0023622060.4723622061.21.672362206FF21.402396.40289355.3907892784500.572559753317581634225245DRYM
2024-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202558552.82634.62843.72700.0011811030.3211811031.21.521181103FF20.826395.82689355.3907892784500.552016242368251634225245DRYM
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST202558552.46633.83643.15100.0043307110.4143307111.21.614330711FF20.466395.46689355.3907892784500.539101699172031634225245DRYM
2024-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202558551.49434.55643.02500.0043307110.4143307111.21.614330711FF19.494394.49489355.3907892784500.504064473925621634225245DRYM
2024-10-02 08:00:02FORECAST202558551.6233.58442.60200.0055118140.4355118141.21.635511814FF19.62393.6289355.3907892784500.508613871140141634225245DRYM
2024-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202558553.40232.84643.12400.0051181130.5251181131.21.725118113FF21.402394.40289355.3907892784500.572559753317581634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202558553.70831.87442.791000.661.221.88FF21.708391.70889355.3907892784500.583397620570631634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202558554.89633.5344.213000.711.251.96FF22.896397.89689355.3907892784500.624806059464191634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202558555.4933.63844.564000.711.251.96FF23.49397.4989355.3907892784500.645014786507161634235267.5DRYH
2024-10-01 12:00:04FORECAST202558557.36237.3147.336000.461.251.71FF25.362402.36289355.3907892784500.705867135031831644325255DRYH
2024-10-01 08:00:03FORECAST202558557.16436.8647.012000.411.261.67FF25.164402.16489355.3907892784500.71451056343681644325255DRYH
2024-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202558556.46236.15846.31000.431.251.68FF24.462403.46289355.3907892784500.692154597700981634325250DRYMH
2024-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202558557.05638.10247.579000.281.231.51FF25.056406.05689355.3907892784500.711121880383661644325255DRYH
2024-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202558557.00238.04847.525000.321.221.54FF25.002405.00289355.3907892784500.709420477294861644325255DRYH
2024-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202558556.42637.16646.796000.411.221.63FF24.426403.42689355.3907892784500.690987682908991634325250DRYMH
2024-09-30 12:00:03FORECAST202558558.5540.06449.3070001.211.21FF26.55410.5589355.3907892784500.756236824476991644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202558558.8239.97449.3970001.21.2FF26.82410.8289355.3907892784500.763964938707141644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202558558.60440.1949.3970001.211.21FF26.604410.60489355.3907892784500.757793274819421644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:04FORECAST202558559.03639.9249.4780001.221.22FF27.036405.03689355.3907892784500.770049087387761644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202558558.6440.94649.7930001.231.23FF26.64406.6489355.3907892784500.758827912634711644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202558560.20643.5251.8630001.211.21FF28.206407.20689355.3907892784500.801439787156881644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:03FORECAST202558559.32444.56451.94400.0011811030.0011811031.221.221181103FF27.324409.32489355.3907892784500.778023220541111644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202558560.00844.45652.2320001.221.22FF28.008410.00889355.3907892784500.796316630260171644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:05FORECAST202558556.60641.19848.90200.0102362260.0402362261.211.250236226FF24.606404.60689355.3907892784500.696802777467781634315225DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202558551.0837.41844.24900.0736220870.2536220871.231.483622087FF19.08393.0889355.3907892784500.502552016670961634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202558551.78238.13844.9600.1114173830.3614173831.231.591417383FF19.782398.78289355.3907892784500.528315362930111634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202558549.5537.07643.31300.1122047850.3922047851.241.632204785FF17.55394.5589355.3907892784500.446510559334021624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 12:00:03FORECAST202558547.6632.30639.98300.0842520140.1642520141.271.434252014FF15.66389.6689355.3907892784500.378846982183441624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202558546.9435.04240.99100.0862205190.1462205191.261.406220519FF14.94387.9489355.3907892784500.353901824572191624225240DRYM
2024-09-28 04:00:11FORECAST202558548.61437.43643.02500.0507874290.0807874291.21.280787429FF16.614396.61489355.3907892784500.412675650201561624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202558551.3538.76845.05900.0582677480.1282677481.211.338267748FF19.35406.3589355.3907892784500.512468136111451634325250DRYMH
2024-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202558551.1739.16445.16700.0311023790.0811023791.221.301102379FF19.17408.1789355.3907892784500.505857867707361634315225DRYL
2024-09-27 16:00:03FORECAST202558551.00840.2845.64400.0070866180.3670866181.221.587086618FF19.008412.00889355.3907892784500.499907198761671634325250DRYMH
2024-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202558547.69636.91442.30500.165354420.525354421.221.74535442FF15.696396.69689355.3907892784500.380108594062981624235260DRYH
2024-09-27 08:00:04FORECAST202558548.36234.64641.50400.0027559070.4227559071.211.632755907FF16.362395.36289355.3907892784500.40366525631031624225240DRYM
2024-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST202558545.93235.6940.81101.0673234111.1373234111.272.407323411FF13.932375.93289355.3907892784500.320026425305541624245280DRYVH
2024-09-27 00:00:06FORECAST202558542.09834.71838.40801.2578746951.5378746951.142.677874695FF10.098361.09889355.3907892784500.205905236946211614255287.5DRYVH
2024-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST202558542.0834.8838.4801.3618117591.6018117591.132.731811759FF10.08366.0889355.3907892784500.205433238076911614255287.5DRYVH
2024-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202558544.83433.09838.96600.397638011.257638011.112.36763801FF12.834362.83489355.3907892784500.284768576823381624245280DRYVH
2024-09-26 12:00:04FORECAST202558566.32637.95852.142000.441.151.59FF34.326387.32689355.3907892784500.920874122619561654225255DRYH
2024-09-26 10:22:28FORECAST202558566.32637.95852.142000.441.141.58FF34.326387.32689355.3907892784500.920874122619561654225255DRYH