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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 4, 2024

[ Thursday, October 3, 2024 | Index | Today | Saturday, October 5, 2024 ]

DAY 4 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/05/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 387

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.22 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 84

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-05 04:00:03OBSERVATION202548450.4399234.8900842.6650001.221.22FF18.43992387.4399290356.31057557841 00.4839692906594616 24215220DRYL
2024-10-05 00:00:02FORECAST202548443.19632.34237.76900.5185042170.5185042171.221.738504217FF11.196380.19689355.3907892784500.242781157721871614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-04 12:00:02FORECAST202548443.0733.24238.15600.7039373880.7039373881.221.923937388FF11.07380.0789355.3907892784500.239218932267261614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-04 08:00:01FORECAST202548441.93632.21637.07600.7980319270.7980319271.222.018031927FF9.936378.93689355.3907892784500.208475702621891614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-04 04:00:03FORECAST202548441.39632.34236.86900.775590970.775590971.221.99559097FF9.396378.39689355.3907892784500.19469357647721614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-04 00:00:01FORECAST202548442.09831.76636.93200.7708665580.7708665581.221.990866558FF10.098374.09890356.3105755784100.212719692976981614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-03 20:00:01FORECAST202548442.49431.74837.12100.6122050550.6122050551.221.832205055FF10.494375.49490356.3105755784100.223303348537021614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-03 16:00:01FORECAST202548442.83632.14437.4900.5681105430.5681105431.221.788110543FF10.836375.83690356.3105755784100.232679698308771614235252.5DRYMH
2024-10-03 12:00:02FORECAST202548446.25634.68240.46900.5653546360.5653546361.221.785354636FF14.256379.25690356.3105755784100.337331355184971624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 08:00:02FORECAST202548446.86835.49241.1800.5862207890.5862207891.221.806220789FF14.868380.86890356.3105755784100.3578408535871624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 04:00:03FORECAST202548446.7636.1441.4500.6523625570.6523625571.221.872362557FF14.76381.7690356.3105755784100.354189536731661624235260DRYH
2024-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202548447.58835.0641.32400.5503939980.5503939981.221.770393998FF15.588386.58890356.3105755784100.382501434646431624235260DRYH
2024-10-02 20:00:02FORECAST202548447.53435.29441.41400.4696852930.4696852931.221.689685293FF15.534386.53490356.3105755784100.380633836900361624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 16:00:02FORECAST202548447.7535.94241.84600.3165356040.3165356041.221.536535604FF15.75386.7590356.3105755784100.388120479575481624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 12:59:58FORECAST202548447.71434.93441.32400.405512030.405512031.221.62551203FF15.714386.71490356.3105755784100.386869731665961624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 12:00:02FORECAST202548447.69635.3341.51300.405512030.405512031.221.62551203FF15.696386.69690356.3105755784100.386244796979771624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 08:00:01FORECAST202548446.8535.47441.16200.4311025950.4311025951.221.651102595FF14.85385.8590356.3105755784100.357231386504561624225240DRYM
2024-10-02 04:00:05FORECAST202548446.36435.3340.84700.5173231140.5173231141.221.737323114FF14.364385.36490356.3105755784100.340917847578921624235260DRYH
2024-10-02 00:00:02FORECAST202548445.96835.63640.80200.6582680720.6582680721.241.898268072FF13.968381.96890356.3105755784100.327840054062511624235260DRYH
2024-10-01 20:00:02FORECAST202548446.52635.58241.05400.70866180.70866181.271.9786618FF14.526386.52690356.3105755784100.346324545058111624235260DRYH
2024-10-01 16:00:02FORECAST202548446.4936.08641.28800.7098429030.7098429031.271.979842903FF14.49386.4990356.3105755784100.345120301457481624235260DRYH
2024-10-01 12:00:03FORECAST202548447.49837.81442.65600.4649608810.4649608811.271.734960881FF15.498389.49890356.3105755784100.379390311799711624225240DRYM
2024-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202548447.69638.10242.89900.409449040.409449041.281.68944904FF15.696388.69690356.3105755784100.391739701102721624225240DRYM
2024-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202548450.43237.95844.19500.43307110.43307111.271.7030711FF18.432391.43290356.3105755784100.489646390681431624225240DRYM
2024-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202548454.19439.0246.60700.2783466070.2783466071.251.528346607FF22.194393.19490356.3105755784100.624070363933361634225245DRYM
2024-09-30 20:00:02FORECAST202548453.76238.2145.98600.3224411190.3224411191.241.562441119FF21.762391.76290356.3105755784100.609071246659051634225245DRYM
2024-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202548454.6839.5647.1200.4098427410.4098427411.241.649842741FF22.68390.6890356.3105755784100.640722114593461634225245DRYM
2024-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202548457.59642.850.1980001.231.23FF25.596395.59690356.3105755784100.734213964942121644215225DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:03FORECAST202548457.95643.01650.4860001.221.22FF25.956395.95690356.3105755784100.744844625453031644215225DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST202548459.68443.751.6920001.231.23FF27.684395.68490356.3105755784100.79262139428361644215225DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202548459.9944.61852.3040001.241.24FF27.99389.9990356.3105755784100.80049515053411644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:03FORECAST202548460.54844.83452.6910001.251.25FF28.548391.54890356.3105755784100.814382634290831644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:03FORECAST202548461.08845.98653.5370001.231.23FF29.088391.08890356.3105755784100.827236728638951644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202548461.68245.5953.6360001.241.24FF29.682393.68290356.3105755784100.84070535964041644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202548461.6146.05853.83400.0047244120.0047244121.241.244724412FF29.61393.6190356.3105755784100.839110340204361644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202548457.23644.9651.09800.0346456880.0346456881.231.264645688FF25.236392.23690356.3105755784100.723363590684291644215225DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:03FORECAST202548454.03243.3448.68600.1814961610.1814961611.251.431496161FF22.032386.03290356.3105755784100.618466269583231634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 20:00:03FORECAST202548455.11244.11449.61300.2468505270.2468505271.251.496850527FF23.112391.11290356.3105755784100.655303753519371634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST202548452.19642.06247.12900.2830710190.2830710191.261.543071019FF20.196389.19690356.3105755784100.553486689735521634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST202548452.62840.62246.62500.0799213030.0999213031.271.369921303FF20.628385.62890356.3105755784100.568974806721691634225245DRYM
2024-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202548453.43842.18847.81300.0555118410.0655118411.271.335511841FF21.438385.43890356.3105755784100.597713101354241634215222.5DRYL
2024-09-28 04:00:10FORECAST202548458.65843.93451.29600.0318897810.0318897811.221.251889781FF26.658391.65890356.3105755784100.76491773179261644215225DRYL
2024-09-28 00:00:03FORECAST202548459.82844.00651.91700.070866180.070866181.231.30086618FF27.828398.82890356.3105755784100.796349292011711644215225DRYL
2024-09-27 20:00:03FORECAST202548460.31444.27652.29500.0539370370.0539370371.241.293937037FF28.314401.31490356.3105755784100.808633288338661644315227.5DRYL
2024-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST202548459.37847.08453.23100.3649608270.3649608271.241.604960827FF27.378405.37890356.3105755784100.784567196612581644325255DRYH
2024-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202548453.8742.13448.00200.3566931060.3566931061.241.596693106FF21.87392.8790356.3105755784100.612837238158451634225245DRYM
2024-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202548450.50439.23644.8700.4216537710.4216537711.231.651653771FF18.504390.50490356.3105755784100.492258069748081624225240DRYM
2024-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST202548449.33438.22843.78100.0712598810.0712598811.291.361259881FF17.334374.33490356.3105755784100.449938911851731624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 00:00:05FORECAST202548449.38836.28442.83600.2767718030.2767718031.161.436771803FF17.388363.38890356.3105755784100.451883325852681624225240DRYM
2024-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST202548453.45637.83245.64400.2425198160.2425198161.151.392519816FF21.456368.45690356.3105755784100.598346374960071634225245DRYM
2024-09-26 16:00:04FORECAST202548448.14636.66242.40400.8610240870.8610240871.131.991024087FF16.146362.14690356.3105755784100.407546372658511624235260DRYH
2024-09-26 12:00:04FORECAST202548450.88239.18245.03200.4440947280.4540947281.161.614094728FF18.882364.88290356.3105755784100.505972227590361634225245DRYM
2024-09-26 10:22:28FORECAST202548450.88239.18245.03200.4440947280.4540947281.151.604094728FF18.882364.88290356.3105755784100.505972227590361634225245DRYM