Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, October 4, 2024
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Saturday, October 5, 2024 ]
DAY 4
OF WATER YEAR 2025,
FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/05/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.
THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW
MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:
DRY
MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise |
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 50.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.67°F
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.484
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:
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DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:
Click to zoom in
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Degree Days above 32°F (DD32) |
TODAY'S DD32: 18
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 387
DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
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Precipitation at Paradise |
DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.22 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.22 in
PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)
PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
|
Snow at Paradise |
DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 90
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 356.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in
SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
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Seasonal Variables |
DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 84
July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
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Calculated Variables |
D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0
These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
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Notes |
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UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status
D |
TYPE |
WY |
DOFWY |
DS0SP |
T_MAX |
T_MIN |
T_AVG |
SP |
P1 |
P3 |
P15 |
P18 |
PA |
PB |
DD32 |
DD32_18 |
SWE_DAY |
SNOW_P |
SWE |
T_MAX_PERC |
T_MAX_PERC_YRS |
D0 |
D1 |
D2 |
D3 |
D4 |
D5 |
HS_DRY |
FCST_TYPE |
HAZ_CLASS |
2024-10-05 04:00:03 | OBSERVATION | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 50.43992 | 34.89008 | 42.665 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.22 | 1.22 | F | F | 18.43992 | 387.43992 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.48396929065946 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 20 | DRY | L |
2024-10-05 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 43.196 | 32.342 | 37.769 | 0 | 0.518504217 | 0.518504217 | 1.22 | 1.738504217 | F | F | 11.196 | 380.196 | 89 | 355.39078927845 | 0 | 0.24278115772187 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-04 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 43.07 | 33.242 | 38.156 | 0 | 0.703937388 | 0.703937388 | 1.22 | 1.923937388 | F | F | 11.07 | 380.07 | 89 | 355.39078927845 | 0 | 0.23921893226726 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-04 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 41.936 | 32.216 | 37.076 | 0 | 0.798031927 | 0.798031927 | 1.22 | 2.018031927 | F | F | 9.936 | 378.936 | 89 | 355.39078927845 | 0 | 0.20847570262189 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-04 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 41.396 | 32.342 | 36.869 | 0 | 0.77559097 | 0.77559097 | 1.22 | 1.99559097 | F | F | 9.396 | 378.396 | 89 | 355.39078927845 | 0 | 0.1946935764772 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-04 00:00:01 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 42.098 | 31.766 | 36.932 | 0 | 0.770866558 | 0.770866558 | 1.22 | 1.990866558 | F | F | 10.098 | 374.098 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.21271969297698 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-03 20:00:01 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 42.494 | 31.748 | 37.121 | 0 | 0.612205055 | 0.612205055 | 1.22 | 1.832205055 | F | F | 10.494 | 375.494 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.22330334853702 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-03 16:00:01 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 42.836 | 32.144 | 37.49 | 0 | 0.568110543 | 0.568110543 | 1.22 | 1.788110543 | F | F | 10.836 | 375.836 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.23267969830877 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 52.5 | DRY | MH |
2024-10-03 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.256 | 34.682 | 40.469 | 0 | 0.565354636 | 0.565354636 | 1.22 | 1.785354636 | F | F | 14.256 | 379.256 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.33733135518497 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-03 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.868 | 35.492 | 41.18 | 0 | 0.586220789 | 0.586220789 | 1.22 | 1.806220789 | F | F | 14.868 | 380.868 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.357840853587 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-03 04:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.76 | 36.14 | 41.45 | 0 | 0.652362557 | 0.652362557 | 1.22 | 1.872362557 | F | F | 14.76 | 381.76 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.35418953673166 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-03 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.588 | 35.06 | 41.324 | 0 | 0.550393998 | 0.550393998 | 1.22 | 1.770393998 | F | F | 15.588 | 386.588 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.38250143464643 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-02 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.534 | 35.294 | 41.414 | 0 | 0.469685293 | 0.469685293 | 1.22 | 1.689685293 | F | F | 15.534 | 386.534 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.38063383690036 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-02 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.75 | 35.942 | 41.846 | 0 | 0.316535604 | 0.316535604 | 1.22 | 1.536535604 | F | F | 15.75 | 386.75 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.38812047957548 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-02 12:59:58 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.714 | 34.934 | 41.324 | 0 | 0.40551203 | 0.40551203 | 1.22 | 1.62551203 | F | F | 15.714 | 386.714 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.38686973166596 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-02 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.696 | 35.33 | 41.513 | 0 | 0.40551203 | 0.40551203 | 1.22 | 1.62551203 | F | F | 15.696 | 386.696 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.38624479697977 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-02 08:00:01 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.85 | 35.474 | 41.162 | 0 | 0.431102595 | 0.431102595 | 1.22 | 1.651102595 | F | F | 14.85 | 385.85 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.35723138650456 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-02 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.364 | 35.33 | 40.847 | 0 | 0.517323114 | 0.517323114 | 1.22 | 1.737323114 | F | F | 14.364 | 385.364 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.34091784757892 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-02 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 45.968 | 35.636 | 40.802 | 0 | 0.658268072 | 0.658268072 | 1.24 | 1.898268072 | F | F | 13.968 | 381.968 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.32784005406251 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-01 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.526 | 35.582 | 41.054 | 0 | 0.7086618 | 0.7086618 | 1.27 | 1.9786618 | F | F | 14.526 | 386.526 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.34632454505811 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-01 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 46.49 | 36.086 | 41.288 | 0 | 0.709842903 | 0.709842903 | 1.27 | 1.979842903 | F | F | 14.49 | 386.49 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.34512030145748 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-10-01 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.498 | 37.814 | 42.656 | 0 | 0.464960881 | 0.464960881 | 1.27 | 1.734960881 | F | F | 15.498 | 389.498 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.37939031179971 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-01 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 47.696 | 38.102 | 42.899 | 0 | 0.40944904 | 0.40944904 | 1.28 | 1.68944904 | F | F | 15.696 | 388.696 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.39173970110272 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-01 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 50.432 | 37.958 | 44.195 | 0 | 0.4330711 | 0.4330711 | 1.27 | 1.7030711 | F | F | 18.432 | 391.432 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.48964639068143 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-10-01 00:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 54.194 | 39.02 | 46.607 | 0 | 0.278346607 | 0.278346607 | 1.25 | 1.528346607 | F | F | 22.194 | 393.194 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.62407036393336 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-30 20:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 53.762 | 38.21 | 45.986 | 0 | 0.322441119 | 0.322441119 | 1.24 | 1.562441119 | F | F | 21.762 | 391.762 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.60907124665905 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-30 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 54.68 | 39.56 | 47.12 | 0 | 0.409842741 | 0.409842741 | 1.24 | 1.649842741 | F | F | 22.68 | 390.68 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.64072211459346 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-30 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 57.596 | 42.8 | 50.198 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.23 | 1.23 | F | F | 25.596 | 395.596 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.73421396494212 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-30 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 57.956 | 43.016 | 50.486 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.22 | 1.22 | F | F | 25.956 | 395.956 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.74484462545303 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-30 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 59.684 | 43.7 | 51.692 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.23 | 1.23 | F | F | 27.684 | 395.684 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.7926213942836 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-30 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 59.99 | 44.618 | 52.304 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.24 | F | F | 27.99 | 389.99 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.8004951505341 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 60.548 | 44.834 | 52.691 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.25 | 1.25 | F | F | 28.548 | 391.548 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.81438263429083 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 61.088 | 45.986 | 53.537 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.23 | 1.23 | F | F | 29.088 | 391.088 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.82723672863895 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 61.682 | 45.59 | 53.636 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.24 | 1.24 | F | F | 29.682 | 393.682 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.8407053596404 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 08:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 61.61 | 46.058 | 53.834 | 0 | 0.004724412 | 0.004724412 | 1.24 | 1.244724412 | F | F | 29.61 | 393.61 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.83911034020436 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 04:00:04 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 57.236 | 44.96 | 51.098 | 0 | 0.034645688 | 0.034645688 | 1.23 | 1.264645688 | F | F | 25.236 | 392.236 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.72336359068429 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-29 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 54.032 | 43.34 | 48.686 | 0 | 0.181496161 | 0.181496161 | 1.25 | 1.431496161 | F | F | 22.032 | 386.032 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.61846626958323 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-28 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 55.112 | 44.114 | 49.613 | 0 | 0.246850527 | 0.246850527 | 1.25 | 1.496850527 | F | F | 23.112 | 391.112 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.65530375351937 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-28 16:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 52.196 | 42.062 | 47.129 | 0 | 0.283071019 | 0.283071019 | 1.26 | 1.543071019 | F | F | 20.196 | 389.196 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.55348668973552 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-28 12:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 52.628 | 40.622 | 46.625 | 0 | 0.079921303 | 0.099921303 | 1.27 | 1.369921303 | F | F | 20.628 | 385.628 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.56897480672169 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-28 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 53.438 | 42.188 | 47.813 | 0 | 0.055511841 | 0.065511841 | 1.27 | 1.335511841 | F | F | 21.438 | 385.438 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.59771310135424 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 22.5 | DRY | L |
2024-09-28 04:00:10 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 58.658 | 43.934 | 51.296 | 0 | 0.031889781 | 0.031889781 | 1.22 | 1.251889781 | F | F | 26.658 | 391.658 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.7649177317926 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-28 00:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 59.828 | 44.006 | 51.917 | 0 | 0.07086618 | 0.07086618 | 1.23 | 1.30086618 | F | F | 27.828 | 398.828 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.79634929201171 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 25 | DRY | L |
2024-09-27 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 60.314 | 44.276 | 52.295 | 0 | 0.053937037 | 0.053937037 | 1.24 | 1.293937037 | F | F | 28.314 | 401.314 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.80863328833866 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 27.5 | DRY | L |
2024-09-27 16:00:02 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 59.378 | 47.084 | 53.231 | 0 | 0.364960827 | 0.364960827 | 1.24 | 1.604960827 | F | F | 27.378 | 405.378 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.78456719661258 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 55 | DRY | H |
2024-09-27 12:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 53.87 | 42.134 | 48.002 | 0 | 0.356693106 | 0.356693106 | 1.24 | 1.596693106 | F | F | 21.87 | 392.87 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.61283723815845 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-27 08:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 50.504 | 39.236 | 44.87 | 0 | 0.421653771 | 0.421653771 | 1.23 | 1.651653771 | F | F | 18.504 | 390.504 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.49225806974808 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-09-27 04:00:05 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 49.334 | 38.228 | 43.781 | 0 | 0.071259881 | 0.071259881 | 1.29 | 1.361259881 | F | F | 17.334 | 374.334 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.44993891185173 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 20 | DRY | L |
2024-09-27 00:00:05 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 49.388 | 36.284 | 42.836 | 0 | 0.276771803 | 0.276771803 | 1.16 | 1.436771803 | F | F | 17.388 | 363.388 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.45188332585268 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 40 | DRY | M |
2024-09-26 20:00:03 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 53.456 | 37.832 | 45.644 | 0 | 0.242519816 | 0.242519816 | 1.15 | 1.392519816 | F | F | 21.456 | 368.456 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.59834637496007 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-26 16:00:04 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 48.146 | 36.662 | 42.404 | 0 | 0.861024087 | 0.861024087 | 1.13 | 1.991024087 | F | F | 16.146 | 362.146 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.40754637265851 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 60 | DRY | H |
2024-09-26 12:00:04 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 50.882 | 39.182 | 45.032 | 0 | 0.444094728 | 0.454094728 | 1.16 | 1.614094728 | F | F | 18.882 | 364.882 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.50597222759036 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |
2024-09-26 10:22:28 | FORECAST | 2025 | 4 | 84 | 50.882 | 39.182 | 45.032 | 0 | 0.444094728 | 0.454094728 | 1.15 | 1.604094728 | F | F | 18.882 | 364.882 | 90 | 356.31057557841 | 0 | 0.50597222759036 | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 45 | DRY | M |