MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, October 2, 2024

[ Tuesday, October 1, 2024 | Index | Today | Thursday, October 3, 2024 ]

DAY 2 OF WATER YEAR 2025, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/03/2024 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 39.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.56°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.106
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 8
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 379

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.32 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 92
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 358.14 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 82

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2024-10-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION202528239.9700433.1500236.560030001.321.32FF7.97004378.9700492358.13969574323 00.1064347316622616 14215217.5DRYL
2024-10-03 00:00:02FORECAST202528244.85232.77438.81300.0023622060.0023622061.321.322362206FF12.852383.85291357.2268733228900.209937088987311614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 12:59:57FORECAST202528244.97832.39638.6870001.321.32FF12.978383.97891357.2268733228900.21321562713251614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 12:00:01FORECAST202528245.06832.0938.5790001.321.32FF13.068384.06891357.2268733228900.215575576759461614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 08:00:01FORECAST202528244.9632.43238.6960001.321.32FF12.96383.9691357.2268733228900.212745448183381614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 04:00:04FORECAST202528245.39232.61239.0020001.321.32FF13.392384.39291357.2268733228900.224195563878491614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-02 00:00:01FORECAST202528245.06832.12638.597000.021.321.34FF13.068380.06892358.1396957432300.215575576759461614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-01 20:00:01FORECAST202528246.43631.87439.15500.0027559070.0527559071.321.372755907FF14.436383.43692358.1396957432300.253260223083011624215220DRYL
2024-10-01 16:00:01FORECAST202528246.0432.10839.07400.0043307110.0543307111.321.374330711FF14.04383.0492358.1396957432300.242008409574231614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-01 12:00:02FORECAST202528246.56232.32439.44300.0011811030.0511811031.321.371181103FF14.562383.56292358.1396957432300.256897093254441624215220DRYL
2024-10-01 08:00:02FORECAST202528246.05832.39639.227000.061.321.38FF14.058383.05892358.1396957432300.243397479070571614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-01 04:00:04FORECAST202528245.80632.01838.912000.051.321.37FF13.806382.80692358.1396957432300.236333854917131614215217.5DRYL
2024-10-01 00:00:02FORECAST202528246.54431.67639.11000.031.321.35FF14.544380.54492358.1396957432300.257335759878261624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 20:00:01FORECAST202528246.95831.8239.389000.021.321.34FF14.958379.95892358.1396957432300.269527754165191624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 16:00:02FORECAST202528247.49830.72239.11000.021.321.34FF15.498379.49892358.1396957432300.285853165616651624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST202528247.53430.93839.236000.011.321.33FF15.534379.53492358.1396957432300.28695800955471624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST202528247.87630.5639.2180001.321.32FF15.876379.87692358.1396957432300.297553465587571624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 04:00:03FORECAST202528247.24630.41638.831000.011.321.33FF15.246378.24692358.1396957432300.278176382557941624215220DRYL
2024-09-30 00:00:03FORECAST202528245.10430.50637.80500.0031496080.0231496081.321.343149608FF13.104373.10492358.1396957432300.217263827257781614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-29 20:00:02FORECAST202528245.46430.7438.10200.0027559070.0327559071.321.352755907FF13.464374.46492358.1396957432300.226930455131731614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-29 16:00:02FORECAST202528245.17631.22638.20100.0023622060.0123622061.321.332362206FF13.176373.17692358.1396957432300.219177937925691614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST202528247.17432.32439.74900.0015748040.0215748041.321.341574804FF15.174375.17492358.1396957432300.276001607682491624215220DRYL
2024-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST202528247.4832.21639.848000.021.321.34FF15.48375.4892358.1396957432300.285301502372151624215220DRYL
2024-09-29 04:00:04FORECAST202528248.45233.22440.838000.011.321.33FF16.452378.45292358.1396957432300.315789986418131624215220DRYL
2024-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST202528248.57832.7240.649000.031.321.35FF16.578376.57892358.1396957432300.319841806549971624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST202528249.7333.15241.441000.031.321.35FF17.73378.7392358.1396957432300.357834661389521624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 16:00:02FORECAST202528249.65833.841.729000.041.321.36FF17.658380.65892358.1396957432300.355413492992451624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST202528248.23633.09840.66700.0188976480.0688976481.321.388897648FF16.236378.23692358.1396957432300.308895409822371624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST202528246.95833.0840.01900.0141732360.0641732361.321.384173236FF14.958375.95892358.1396957432300.269527754165191624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 04:00:09FORECAST202528249.02836.24842.63800.0047244120.0047244121.321.324724412FF17.028375.02892358.1396957432300.334485961534581624215220DRYL
2024-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST202528251.49439.84845.67100.0015748040.0015748041.331.331574804FF19.494381.49492358.1396957432300.418716995225491624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST202528252.30439.97446.13900.0015748040.0015748041.341.341574804FF20.304383.30492358.1396957432300.447439857174131624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 16:00:02FORECAST202528251.87237.6744.7710001.341.34FF19.872386.87292358.1396957432300.432076767532521624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST202528249.74836.51843.1330001.341.34FF17.748383.74892358.1396957432300.358440852292661624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST202528249.08235.97842.530001.331.33FF17.082383.08292358.1396957432300.336260862051921624215220DRYL
2024-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST202528245.51833.78239.6500.0047244120.0547244121.341.394724412FF13.518371.51892358.1396957432300.228401048942861614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-27 00:00:04FORECAST202528239.05629.31834.18700.0019685050.1019685051.161.261968505FF7.056365.05692358.1396957432300.0921886459273451614225235DRYL
2024-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST202528239.5629.15634.35800.0019685050.0919685051.161.251968505FF7.56364.5692358.1396957432300.0999450343708031614225235DRYL
2024-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST202528239.9229.69634.80800.0011811030.0611811031.171.231181103FF7.92361.9292358.1396957432300.105769093351921614215217.5DRYL
2024-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST202528242.63830.79436.71600.011811030.141811031.131.27181103FF10.638360.63892358.1396957432300.157698570898581614225235DRYL
2024-09-26 10:22:27FORECAST202528242.63830.79436.71600.011811030.141811031.121.26181103FF10.638360.63892358.1396957432300.157698570898581614225235DRYL