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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 9, 2023

[ Friday, September 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 10, 2023 ]

DAY 344 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/10/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.44°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.31°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.879
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 518

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 251
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 59

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-10 04:00:06OBSERVATION20233445971.4399853.1899662.314970001.691.69FF39.43998518.43998251466.86824583767 00.8791592101534616 53415160DRYH
2023-09-10 00:00:01FORECAST20233445964.81446.92255.8680001.691.69FF32.814511.814252467.3652216514200.684374165197031633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20233445965.91247.98456.9480001.691.69FF33.912512.912252467.3652216514200.723877117864951643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:01FORECAST20233445965.73248.41657.0740001.691.69FF33.732512.732252467.3652216514200.717570170649471643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20233445965.87648.4757.1730001.691.69FF33.876512.876252467.3652216514200.722621270988821643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20233445966.03847.356.6690001.691.69FF34.038511.038251466.8682458376700.728250502599411643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20233445964.63447.22855.9310001.691.69FF32.634509.634251466.8682458376700.677674963628911633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20233445965.0348.25456.6420001.691.69FF33.03510.03251466.8682458376700.69233385552671633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20233445965.28248.1156.6960001.691.69FF33.282510.282251466.8682458376700.701506906744151643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20233445965.19247.58856.390001.691.69FF33.192510.192251466.8682458376700.698245088215041633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20233445964.25647.13855.6970001.691.69FF32.256508.256251466.8682458376700.663419569752861633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20233445965.33647.5756.4530001.691.69FF33.336506.336251466.8682458376700.703456272992181643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20233445965.24647.19256.2190001.691.69FF33.246508.246251466.8682458376700.700204102291431643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20233445963.15846.25654.7070001.691.69FF31.158504.158251466.8682458376700.620726061447771633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:05FORECAST20233445965.0347.4856.2550001.691.69FF33.03508.03251466.8682458376700.69233385552671633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20233445964.11246.09455.1030001.691.69FF32.112506.112251466.8682458376700.657925165923341633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20233445963.89646.95855.4270001.691.69FF31.896504.896251466.8682458376700.649620840331691633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20233445964.14847.62455.8860001.691.69FF32.148501.148251466.8682458376700.659301959491071633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20233445964.4948.48856.4890001.691.69FF32.49503.49251466.8682458376700.672273633979281633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20233445965.10248.70456.9030001.691.69FF33.102506.102251466.8682458376700.694967356473081633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20233445962.79848.2955.5440001.691.69FF30.798500.798251466.8682458376700.606370648081011633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20233445963.62647.13855.3820001.691.69FF31.626500.626251466.8682458376700.639139459078211633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20233445963.2347.13855.1840001.691.69FF31.23501.23251466.8682458376700.623577982215371633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233445964.14848.30856.2280001.681.68FF32.148507.148251466.8682458376700.659301959491071633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20233445964.1349.42456.7770001.681.68FF32.13512.13251466.8682458376700.658613826418921633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233445962.54646.90454.7250001.681.68FF30.546506.546251466.8682458376700.596233849545441633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233445960.58446.54453.5640001.681.68FF28.584503.584251466.8682458376700.515614043297721633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233445960.40446.07653.240001.681.68FF28.404501.404251466.8682458376700.508134116590861633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20233445960.56645.75253.1590001.681.68FF28.566505.566251466.8682458376700.514866254361031633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:04FORECAST20233445959.77446.32853.0510001.471.47FF27.774504.774251466.8682458376700.481949113556721623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233445959.14445.71652.430001.481.48FF27.144503.144251466.8682458376700.455841777358731623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20233445960.20642.76451.4850001.471.47FF28.206503.206251466.8682458376700.499902993592421633415225DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233445959.61243.66451.6380001.471.47FF27.612502.612251466.8682458376700.475223881852341623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233445960.09842.90851.5030001.471.47FF28.098504.098251466.8682458376700.49541308374981623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20233445959.95444.99652.4750001.471.47FF27.954510.954251466.8682458376700.489427539306811623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:11FORECAST20233445955.99443.03449.5140001.461.46FF23.994502.994251466.8682458376700.330264489630791623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:07FORECAST20233445955.5842.3548.9650001.431.43FF23.58503.58251466.8682458376700.314786447661171623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233445955.5842.3548.9650001.431.43FF23.58503.58251466.8682458376700.314786447661171623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233445954.84243.12448.9830001.421.42FF22.842504.842251466.8682458376700.287998640022511623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20233445955.4942.36848.9290001.391.39FF23.49509.49251466.8682458376700.311463046258991623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20233445955.97641.73848.8570001.381.38FF23.976505.976251466.8682458376700.32958521050551623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233445954.35642.31448.3350001.431.43FF22.356486.356251466.8682458376700.270966420898811623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233445955.61643.68249.6490001.441.44FF23.616489.616251466.8682458376700.316120036625371623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:04FORECAST20233445955.97644.25850.1170001.361.36FF23.976494.976251466.8682458376700.32958521050551623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233445960.3545.66253.0060001.351.35FF28.35502.35251466.8682458376700.50588946086541633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233445959.59445.2352.4120001.351.35FF27.594502.594251466.8682458376700.474477034276331623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233445958.2842.6250.450001.351.35FF26.28501.28251466.8682458376700.420367422761161623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233445954.12241.01847.570001.471.47FF22.122495.122251466.8682458376700.262948613245331623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233445954.64440.08247.3630001.421.42FF22.644492.644251466.8682458376700.280998892665841623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20233445958.22643.66450.9450001.371.37FF26.226496.226251466.8682458376700.418168543568861623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233445959.10843.82651.4670001.351.35FF27.108502.108251466.8682458376700.454354597656071623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:04FORECAST20233445958.143.19650.6480001.391.39FF26.1495.1251466.8682458376700.413047873785231623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20233445954.03240.67647.3540001.381.38FF22.032490.032251466.8682458376700.259897414789641623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233445950.1839.00244.5910001.21.2FF18.18494.18251466.8682458376700.147951158238511613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233445952.10640.67646.39100.251968640.251968641.171.42196864FF20.106499.106251466.8682458376700.199215889394671613425240DRYM
2023-08-31 16:00:04FORECAST20233445948.36237.50842.93500.114173290.114173291.341.45417329FF16.362491.362251466.8682458376700.10842622657961613325235DRYL
2023-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233445957.41642.1749.7930001.461.46FF25.416500.416251466.8682458376700.385528622214531623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20233445956.08441.25248.6680001.461.46FF24.084490.084251466.8682458376700.333669238558891623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233445965.33640.78453.060001.691.69FF33.336485.336251466.8682458376700.703456272992181643315225DRYL
2023-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20233445944.638.31841.4590001.311.31FF12.6458.6251466.8682458376700.0517694431994671613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233445945.69840.33443.0160001.271.27FF13.698469.698251466.8682458376700.0651203023484281613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20233445940.8238.98439.9020001.561.56FF8.82451.82251466.8682458376700.0215047222888661613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233445946.47242.87244.6720001.351.35FF14.472475.472251466.8682458376700.0760312683518461613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233445942.81840.31641.567000.011.421.43FF10.818460.818251466.8682458376700.0348105605515371613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 04:00:08FORECAST20233445946.79644.97845.887000.011.581.59FF14.796469.796251466.8682458376700.0809903022614621613315217.5DRYL