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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 8, 2023

[ Thursday, September 7, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 9, 2023 ]

DAY 343 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/09/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.77°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.57°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 50.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.557
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 502

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 250
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 466.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 58

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-09 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233435860.7699439.5700850.170010001.691.69FF28.76994501.76994250466.36937792312 00.5565055343027716 33415225DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:02FORECAST20233435859.3638.40848.8840001.691.69FF27.36500.36251466.8682458376700.499966816468171633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20233435859.03638.5748.8030001.691.69FF27.036500.036251466.8682458376700.486933003228861623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:02FORECAST2023343585938.51648.7580001.691.69FF27500251466.8682458376700.485485408373291623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:04FORECAST20233435858.40638.5748.4880001.691.69FF26.406499.406251466.8682458376700.46164188847661623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20233435859.03638.40848.7220001.691.69FF27.036496.036250466.3693779231200.486933003228861623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20233435859.77438.7549.2620001.691.69FF27.774497.774250466.3693779231200.516619310122691633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20233435857.54238.13847.840001.691.69FF25.542495.542250466.3693779231200.427227854929611623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:04FORECAST20233435859.7238.78649.2530001.691.69FF27.72497.72250466.3693779231200.514448268291961633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:03FORECAST20233435858.7339.09248.9110001.691.69FF26.73496.73250466.3693779231200.474635857988241623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20233435858.4638.44448.4520001.691.69FF26.46496.46250466.3693779231200.4638050861721623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20233435858.42439.1148.7670001.691.69FF26.424492.424250466.3693779231200.462362831496351623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20233435859.43239.88449.6580001.691.69FF27.432494.432250466.3693779231200.502863714221091633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20233435861.01640.1950.6030001.691.69FF29.016496.016250466.3693779231200.566288033248331633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20233435858.76640.2849.5230001.691.69FF26.766492.766250466.3693779231200.476081554484481623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20233435859.19839.39849.2980001.691.69FF27.198492.198250466.3693779231200.493449035619521623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:05FORECAST20233435859.1839.50649.3430001.691.69FF27.18493.18250466.3693779231200.492724913868351623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233435859.07240.38849.730001.681.68FF27.072498.072250466.3693779231200.488380770275571623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20233435859.8141.77450.7920001.681.68FF27.81502.81250466.3693779231200.518066401620131633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233435858.83840.7349.7840001.681.68FF26.838498.838250466.3693779231200.478973873235631623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20233435858.17241.52249.8470001.681.68FF26.172498.172250466.3693779231200.452281951950031623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233435857.3840.40648.8930001.681.68FF25.38496.38250466.3693779231200.420828396436751623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20233435857.95640.65849.3070001.681.68FF25.956499.956250466.3693779231200.443665365541741623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:04FORECAST20233435857.5641.70249.6310001.471.47FF25.56499.56250466.3693779231200.427940121627251623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233435857.34442.40449.874000.011.471.48FF25.344499.344250466.3693779231200.419409068460271623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20233435857.05641.0949.0730001.471.47FF25.056498.056250466.3693779231200.408093658116261623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233435856.24641.91849.0820001.471.47FF24.246498.246250466.3693779231200.376705852874111623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233435856.04842.27849.1630001.471.47FF24.048499.048250466.3693779231200.369147028592541623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20233435857.2940.80249.0460001.471.47FF25.29506.29250466.3693779231200.417282046423811623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:10FORECAST20233435856.82242.63849.730001.461.46FF24.822501.822250466.3693779231200.398955525293241623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:07FORECAST20233435858.06442.15250.1080001.431.43FF26.064503.064250466.3693779231200.447970590175411623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233435858.06442.15250.1080001.431.43FF26.064503.064250466.3693779231200.447970590175411623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233435860.36844.13252.250001.421.42FF28.368505.368250466.3693779231200.540454150061151633415225DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20233435860.15244.94252.5470001.391.39FF28.152509.152250466.3693779231200.53179921475781633415225DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20233435858.7344.45651.5930001.381.38FF26.73504.73250466.3693779231200.474635857988241623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233435857.3842.85450.1170001.431.43FF25.38487.38250466.3693779231200.420828396436751623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233435859.37843.93451.6560001.441.44FF27.378489.378250466.3693779231200.500691046709121633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:04FORECAST20233435858.96444.92451.9440001.361.36FF26.964493.964250466.3693779231200.484038004768411623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233435860.38644.72652.5560001.351.35FF28.386497.386250466.3693779231200.541174587189881633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233435860.6245.39253.0060001.351.35FF28.62497.62250466.3693779231200.550527112946891633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233435858.33442.63850.4860001.351.35FF26.334498.334250466.3693779231200.458759400098211623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233435856.01242.02649.0190001.471.47FF24.012496.012250466.3693779231200.367778016826691623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20233435857.39839.4748.4340001.421.42FF25.398493.398250466.3693779231200.421538447686421623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20233435860.96241.34251.1520001.371.37FF28.962492.962250466.3693779231200.564144438673561633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233435860.11641.3650.7380001.351.35FF28.116498.116250466.3693779231200.53035515137051633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:04FORECAST20233435859.34244.43851.890001.391.39FF27.342492.342250466.3693779231200.499242586336261633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20233435858.47844.0651.2690001.381.38FF26.478491.478250466.3693779231200.464526393116111623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233435857.4742.1749.820001.21.2FF25.47499.47250466.3693779231200.424381181980581623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233435858.67643.86251.2690001.171.17FF26.676501.676250466.3693779231200.472467945239771623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 16:00:04FORECAST20233435858.08242.22450.1530001.341.34FF26.082498.082250466.3693779231200.448688737848511623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233435859.57644.04251.8090001.461.46FF27.576497.576250466.3693779231200.508656904011361633315222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20233435858.92843.17851.0530001.461.46FF26.928488.928250466.3693779231200.48259081146621623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233435855.86839.57847.7230001.691.69FF23.868474.868250466.3693779231200.362318899255671623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20233435850.7236.9543.8350001.311.31FF18.72468.72250466.3693779231200.191727253990791613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233435851.20638.01244.6090001.271.27FF19.206479.206250466.3693779231200.205392394402731613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20233435850.07236.1443.106000.031.531.56FF18.072466.072250466.3693779231200.174395500486351613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233435860.65637.25648.9560001.351.35FF28.656483.656250466.3693779231200.551963607246981633315222.5DRYL
2023-08-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233435856.71436.60846.661000.011.421.43FF24.714472.714250466.3693779231200.394756202240131623315220DRYL
2023-08-30 04:00:08FORECAST20233435858.53241.7250.126000.011.581.59FF26.532477.532250466.3693779231200.4666910040781623315220DRYL
2023-08-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233435844.36641.59442.980001.161.16FF12.366472.366250466.3693779231200.0651004761687161613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-29 16:00:04FORECAST20233435842.13439.90241.0180000.780.78FF10.134469.134250466.3693779231200.0410010567112951613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20233435848.48845.78847.1380000.930.93FF16.488476.488250466.3693779231200.136360414245651613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233435848.48845.78847.1380001.321.32FF16.488480.488250466.3693779231200.136360414245651613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-29 04:00:09FORECAST20233435843.0742.33242.7010001.051.05FF11.07462.07250466.3693779231200.0500436908931361613315217.5DRYL