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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 7, 2023

[ Wednesday, September 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, September 8, 2023 ]

DAY 342 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/08/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.71°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.39°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.05°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.422
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 502

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.68 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 249
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.87 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 57

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-08 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233425756.7100441.3900649.05005000.011.681.69FF24.71004501.71004249465.86861070411 00.4221386869759716 23415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:02FORECAST20233425753.20437.65245.428000.011.681.69FF21.204498.204250466.3693779231200.307098023443581623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:02FORECAST20233425754.21238.42646.319000.011.681.69FF22.212499.212250466.3693779231200.338838435600921623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:02FORECAST20233425753.72638.42646.076000.011.681.69FF21.726498.726250466.3693779231200.323374133619531623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:04FORECAST20233425753.5138.17445.842000.011.681.69FF21.51498.51250466.3693779231200.316595807975281623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:03FORECAST20233425752.64638.73245.689000.011.681.69FF20.646494.646249465.8686107041100.290110475253811623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:02FORECAST20233425754.1439.86647.003000.011.681.69FF22.14496.14249465.8686107041100.33652942541491623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:02FORECAST20233425754.06838.89446.481000.011.681.69FF22.068496.068249465.8686107041100.334226558976271623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20233425753.38439.75846.571000.011.681.69FF21.384495.384249465.8686107041100.312669831346011623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20233425753.49238.7546.121000.011.681.69FF21.492494.492249465.8686107041100.316033674815541623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20233425753.22239.07446.148000.011.681.69FF21.222495.222249465.8686107041100.307653234462061623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20233425752.95239.75846.3550001.681.68FF20.952499.952249465.8686107041100.299371894118371623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:02FORECAST20233425754.93240.62247.7770001.681.68FF22.932503.932249465.8686107041100.362249417120261623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20233425753.83438.85846.3460001.681.68FF21.834500.834249465.8686107041100.326785577134691623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20233425754.35639.70447.030001.681.68FF22.356501.356249465.8686107041100.343474583033551623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20233425753.83439.41646.6250001.681.68FF21.834499.834249465.8686107041100.326785577134691623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20233425754.51839.18246.850001.681.68FF22.518502.518249465.8686107041100.348718493689541623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233425754.33839.57846.9580001.471.47FF22.338503.338249465.8686107041100.342893758217311623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233425754.37440.06447.219000.011.471.48FF22.374503.374249465.8686107041100.344055777482581623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20233425755.16637.25646.2110001.471.47FF23.166502.166249465.8686107041100.369975432053421623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233425755.438.7547.0750001.471.47FF23.4503.4249465.8686107041100.377754261331591623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20233425755.1339.18247.1560001.471.47FF23.13504.13249465.8686107041100.368783304082681623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20233425755.99440.89248.4430001.471.47FF23.994509.994249465.8686107041100.397717602211281623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:10FORECAST20233425755.77839.50647.6420001.461.46FF23.778505.778249465.8686107041100.390424127997261623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:07FORECAST20233425756.37237.92247.1470001.431.43FF24.372506.372249465.8686107041100.410566129702921623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233425756.37237.92247.1470001.431.43FF24.372506.372249465.8686107041100.410566129702921623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233425756.4838.4847.480001.421.42FF24.48506.48249465.8686107041100.414255486640881623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20233425757.8337.90447.8670001.391.39FF25.83509.83249465.8686107041100.460907990300981623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20233425755.56238.06646.8140001.381.38FF23.562506.562249465.8686107041100.383169001768581623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233425753.43836.66245.050001.431.43FF21.438491.438249465.8686107041100.314349827613661623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233425754.35637.2245.7880001.441.44FF22.356491.356249465.8686107041100.343474583033551623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233425754.33838.49846.4180001.361.36FF22.338496.338249465.8686107041100.342893758217311623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233425755.20237.7646.4810001.351.35FF23.202498.202249465.8686107041100.371168810192391623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233425755.23837.2246.2290001.351.35FF23.238498.238249465.8686107041100.372363427901881623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233425754.93237.99446.4630001.351.35FF22.932500.932249465.8686107041100.362249417120261623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233425754.84239.247.0210001.471.47FF22.842500.842249465.8686107041100.359292546010621623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20233425753.94237.70645.8240001.421.42FF21.942496.942249465.8686107041100.330211551829961623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233425753.97837.2245.5990001.371.37FF21.978492.978249465.8686107041100.331356730036681623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233425753.6937.92245.8060001.351.35FF21.69498.69249465.8686107041100.322240257019661623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233425754.0537.20245.6260001.391.39FF22.05494.05249465.8686107041100.333651811152551623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20233425754.0537.05845.5540001.381.38FF22.05494.05249465.8686107041100.333651811152551623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233425755.2237.59846.4090001.21.2FF23.22503.22249465.8686107041100.371765964764581623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233425756.8438.73247.7860001.171.17FF24.84503.84249465.8686107041100.426606304634581623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233425756.15639.36247.7590001.341.34FF24.156501.156249465.8686107041100.403211414054611623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233425757.30839.70448.5060001.461.46FF25.308499.308249465.8686107041100.44276879033741623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20233425756.22838.40847.3180001.461.46FF24.228491.228249465.8686107041100.405659322561611623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233425752.68238.06645.3740001.691.69FF20.682479.682249465.8686107041100.291193064056231623315220DRYL
2023-08-31 00:00:04FORECAST20233425751.09838.04844.573000.051.261.31FF19.098479.098249465.8686107041100.245436777073491613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233425751.42239.34445.383000.051.221.27FF19.422489.422249465.8686107041100.254471839594741623315220DRYL
2023-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20233425748.97437.72443.349000.071.491.56FF16.974476.974249465.8686107041100.190687858782371613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233425748.93838.60643.772000.011.341.35FF16.938483.938249465.8686107041100.189829476591091613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233425747.80437.09442.44900.007874020.027874021.41.42787402FF15.804476.804249465.8686107041100.16401409170151613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 04:00:07FORECAST20233425750.50437.34643.92500.007874020.057874021.531.58787402FF18.504479.504249465.8686107041100.22932963742851613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233425752.84437.54445.1940001.161.16FF20.844488.844249465.8686107041100.296087875117491623315220DRYL
2023-08-29 16:00:04FORECAST20233425752.9738.53445.7520000.780.78FF20.97487.97249465.8686107041100.299920831158521623315220DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20233425760.56636.30248.4340000.930.93FF28.566488.566249465.8686107041100.556437426248921633315222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233425760.56635.9648.2630001.321.32FF28.566492.566249465.8686107041100.556437426248921633315222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 04:00:09FORECAST20233425754.93238.51646.7240001.051.05FF22.932479.932249465.8686107041100.362249417120261623315220DRYL
2023-08-29 00:00:04FORECAST20233425742.839.00240.90100.055118140.095118141.221.31511814FF10.8466.8249465.8686107041100.0781200544693061613325235DRYL
2023-08-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233425742.49438.85840.67600.055118140.105118141.161.26511814FF10.494464.494249465.8686107041100.074264399136811613325235DRYL
2023-08-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233425748.242.06245.13100.133858340.203858341.431.63385834FF16.2455.2249465.8686107041100.172758410779381613325235DRYL
2023-08-28 12:00:05FORECAST20233425750.48648.00249.2440001.521.52FF18.486485.486249465.8686107041100.228850956588891613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-28 08:00:05FORECAST20233425745.19443.0744.132000.051.811.86FF13.194478.194249465.8686107041100.113646337809931613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233425745.19443.0744.132000.051.811.86FF13.194478.194249465.8686107041100.113646337809931613315217.5DRYL