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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 6, 2023

[ Tuesday, September 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 7, 2023 ]

DAY 341 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/07/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 56.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 39.34°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.354
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 24
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 513

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.22 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 248
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 465.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 56

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-07 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233415656.2200839.3400447.78006000.221.471.69FF24.22008513.22008248465.36593694953 00.3544936350327916 23425245DRYM
2023-09-07 00:00:02FORECAST20233415653.18639.30846.247000.221.471.69FF21.186510.186249465.8686107041100.257312452913541623425245DRYM
2023-09-06 12:00:02FORECAST20233415652.62839.59646.112000.221.471.69FF20.628509.628249465.8686107041100.241069505093181613425240DRYM
2023-09-06 08:00:02FORECAST20233415652.35839.07445.716000.221.471.69FF20.358509.358249465.8686107041100.233414548088911613425240DRYM
2023-09-06 04:00:04FORECAST20233415653.07839.9246.499000.221.471.69FF21.078510.078249465.8686107041100.254124942765651623425245DRYM
2023-09-06 00:00:03FORECAST20233415653.5139.86646.688000.211.471.68FF21.51514.51248465.3659369495300.266998004381161623425245DRYM
2023-09-05 20:00:01FORECAST20233415654.5940.147.345000.211.471.68FF22.59516.59248465.3659369495300.300555401405771623425245DRYM
2023-09-05 16:00:02FORECAST20233415652.91638.22845.572000.211.471.68FF20.916514.916248465.3659369495300.249382738606891623425245DRYM
2023-09-05 12:00:03FORECAST20233415652.68239.32646.004000.211.471.68FF20.682514.682248465.3659369495300.242616686887291613425240DRYM
2023-09-05 08:00:02FORECAST20233415652.46638.6645.563000.211.471.68FF20.466514.466248465.3659369495300.236460266294541613425240DRYM
2023-09-05 04:00:05FORECAST20233415653.6939.27246.481000.211.471.68FF21.69515.69248465.3659369495300.272457215326381623425245DRYM
2023-09-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233415652.91639.4746.1930001.471.47FF20.916516.916248465.3659369495300.249382738606891623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:01FORECAST20233415653.02440.17246.59800.007874020.007874021.471.47787402FF21.024517.024248465.3659369495300.2525389782021623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 16:00:03FORECAST20233415652.14237.92245.0320001.471.47FF20.142515.142248465.3659369495300.227388808155471613415220DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233415652.75438.64245.6980001.471.47FF20.754515.754248465.3659369495300.244687918753191613415220DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:02FORECAST20233415652.7938.87645.8330001.471.47FF20.79516.79248465.3659369495300.245727088503311613415220DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:04FORECAST20233415654.39239.6547.0210001.471.47FF22.392522.392248465.3659369495300.294262676976641623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:09FORECAST20233415653.79838.08445.941000.021.441.46FF21.798517.798248465.3659369495300.275759107276561623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:06FORECAST20233415652.71838.24645.482000.021.411.43FF20.718517.718248465.3659369495300.24365111626021613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:02FORECAST20233415652.71838.24645.482000.021.411.43FF20.718517.718248465.3659369495300.24365111626021613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233415652.01638.87645.446000.011.411.42FF20.016518.016248465.3659369495300.223914589766731613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:03FORECAST20233415652.95238.58845.770001.391.39FF20.952519.952248465.3659369495300.250432486717291623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:04FORECAST20233415651.58438.96645.2750001.381.38FF19.584518.584248465.3659369495300.212234248216971613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233415648.84837.68843.2680001.431.43FF16.848505.848248465.3659369495300.146881218689421613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233415648.77638.35443.5650001.441.44FF16.776504.776248465.3659369495300.145366155504141613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233415649.20838.64243.9250001.361.36FF17.208510.208248465.3659369495300.154614535133011613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233415648.99237.68843.340001.351.35FF16.992510.992248465.3659369495300.149942929360851613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:02FORECAST20233415648.5637.56243.0610001.351.35FF16.56510.56248465.3659369495300.140884047876931613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233415650.25236.6843.4660001.351.35FF18.252514.252248465.3659369495300.178531594434981613415220DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233415651.20638.49844.852000.041.431.47FF19.206514.206248465.3659369495300.202311842380661613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:02FORECAST20233415650.86436.35643.61000.021.41.42FF18.864510.864248465.3659369495300.19357752838151613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233415649.53238.44443.9880001.371.37FF17.532506.532248465.3659369495300.161799940317081613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233415651.838.7545.2750001.351.35FF19.8512.8248465.3659369495300.218029411802381613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:03FORECAST20233415649.49638.06643.781000.021.371.39FF17.496508.496248465.3659369495300.160991011888061613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:05FORECAST20233415649.83838.69644.2670001.381.38FF17.838507.838248465.3659369495300.168782269398841613415220DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233415650.52241.07245.7970001.21.2FF18.522515.522248465.3659369495300.185076656967111613415220DRYL
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233415650.95441.68446.3190001.171.17FF18.954514.954248465.3659369495300.195853487846761613415220DRYL
2023-08-31 16:00:03FORECAST20233415651.6243.23247.4260001.341.34FF19.62512.62248465.3659369495300.213193820362131613415220DRYL
2023-08-31 12:00:03FORECAST20233415652.89841.86447.381000.011.451.46FF20.898509.898248465.3659369495300.248858741691591613415220DRYL
2023-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20233415651.8941.3646.6250001.461.46FF19.89502.89248465.3659369495300.22047068221613415220DRYL
2023-08-31 04:00:06FORECAST20233415650.84640.62245.734000.221.471.69FF18.846494.846248465.3659369495300.19312427554321613325235DRYL
2023-08-31 00:00:03FORECAST20233415650.86441.05445.959000.330.981.31FF18.864495.864248465.3659369495300.19357752838151613325235DRYL
2023-08-30 20:00:03FORECAST20233415651.4442.56647.003000.320.951.27FF19.44506.44248465.3659369495300.208421240981361613425240DRYM
2023-08-30 16:00:03FORECAST20233415650.75640.08245.41900.027559070.207559071.351.55755907FF18.756495.756248465.3659369495300.190867723668611613325235DRYL
2023-08-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233415651.29640.5545.923000.021.331.35FF19.296503.296248465.3659369495300.204648856668861613415220DRYL
2023-08-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233415651.65637.8544.753000.031.391.42FF19.656496.656248465.3659369495300.214155913119391613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 04:00:07FORECAST20233415651.7141.07246.391000.051.531.58FF19.71496.71248465.3659369495300.215603769909441613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233415652.57439.95646.265000.061.11.16FF20.574503.574248465.3659369495300.239527695142461613415220DRYL
2023-08-29 16:00:04FORECAST20233415653.13238.87646.004000.010.770.78FF21.132503.132248465.3659369495300.25571610834591623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:03FORECAST20233415649.74839.00244.375000.140.790.93FF17.748495.748248465.3659369495300.166708879243221613325235DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233415650.23438.94844.591000.111.211.32FF18.234500.234248465.3659369495300.178100490608931613425240DRYM
2023-08-29 04:00:09FORECAST20233415651.09839.41645.2570001.051.05FF19.098493.098248465.3659369495300.199528553510661613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-29 00:00:04FORECAST20233415654.44640.26247.354000.11.161.26FF22.446492.446248465.3659369495300.295972837949011623325240DRYM
2023-08-28 20:00:04FORECAST20233415653.11439.86646.49000.121.091.21FF21.114490.114248465.3659369495300.255185143281521623325240DRYM
2023-08-28 16:00:04FORECAST20233415656.40837.7647.084000.331.171.5FF24.408475.408248465.3659369495300.360930717909751623325240DRYM
2023-08-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233415663.80639.1151.4580001.521.52FF31.806502.806248465.3659369495300.626612240358091633415225DRYL
2023-08-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233415658.51438.8448.677000.31.561.86FF26.514500.514248465.3659369495300.435370351614861623425245DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233415658.51438.8448.677000.31.561.86FF26.514500.514248465.3659369495300.435370351614861623425245DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:05FORECAST20233415642.54838.8440.694000.31.561.86FF10.548481.548248465.3659369495300.0516366516691191613325235DRYL
2023-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233415642.54838.8440.694000.31.561.86FF10.548482.548248465.3659369495300.0516366516691191613325235DRYL
2023-08-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233415644.92440.9142.917000.311.571.88FF12.924493.924248465.3659369495300.0791907426115211613325235DRYL
2023-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233415647.0345.98646.50800.452756150.582756150.651.23275615FF15.03506.03248465.3659369495300.111816839658891613435260DRYH
2023-08-27 08:00:04FORECAST20233415647.0345.98646.50800.452756150.582756150.681.26275615FF15.03502.03248465.3659369495300.111816839658891613435260DRYH
2023-08-27 04:00:10FORECAST20233415645.44644.72645.086000.110.530.64FF13.446508.446248465.3659369495300.0865152139680241613425240DRYM