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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 30, 2023

[ Friday, September 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, October 1, 2023 ]

DAY 365 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 10/01/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 41.98°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 31.67°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 36.82°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.118
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 10
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 327

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.57 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 5.53 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.10 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 272
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.92 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 80

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 52.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-10-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION20233658041.9799231.6700636.82499000.575.536.1TF9.97992326.97992272476.9182519069 00.1182114695089816 14235252.5WETM
2023-10-01 00:00:01FORECAST20233658044.2430.16437.202000.575.536.1TF12.24329.24273477.377110166800.163796133936821614235252.5WETM
2023-09-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233658044.29430.0237.157000.575.536.1TF12.294329.294273477.377110166800.165008767561171614235252.5WETM
2023-09-30 08:00:02FORECAST20233658044.00629.33636.671000.575.536.1TF12.006329.006273477.377110166800.158608240602311614235252.5WETM
2023-09-30 04:00:04FORECAST20233658045.80631.24438.525000.575.536.1TF13.806330.806273477.377110166800.201297346722781614235252.5WETM
2023-09-30 00:00:02FORECAST20233658047.01230.72238.867000.575.536.1TF15.012332.012272476.918251906900.233404502189651614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 20:00:01FORECAST20233658045.4130.95638.183000.575.536.1TF13.41328.41272476.918251906900.191360145393611614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 16:00:01FORECAST20233658044.7830.30837.544000.575.536.1TF12.78327.78272476.918251906900.176182437154131614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 12:00:02FORECAST20233658044.56431.9138.237000.575.536.1TF12.564327.564272476.918251906900.171158640585711614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 08:00:02FORECAST20233658044.79831.31638.057000.585.536.11TF12.798328.798272476.918251906900.176605248419281614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 04:00:05FORECAST20233658045.7730.43438.102000.575.536.1TF13.77328.77272476.918251906900.200381409351691614235252.5WETM
2023-09-29 00:00:02FORECAST20233658046.5443239.272000.235.535.76TF14.544334.544272476.918251906900.22062038980681614225235WETM
2023-09-28 20:00:02FORECAST20233658045.26631.2838.273000.325.535.85TF13.266332.266272476.918251906900.18782230149671614225235WETM
2023-09-28 16:00:03FORECAST20233658045.9533.06239.506000.325.535.85TF13.95332.95272476.918251906900.204986067247661614225235WETM
2023-09-28 12:00:02FORECAST20233658045.10431.92838.516000.325.535.85TF13.104331.104272476.918251906900.183890752940051614225235WETM
2023-09-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233658045.08631.29838.192000.35.535.83TF13.086332.086272476.918251906900.183457093082171614225235WETM
2023-09-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233658046.7634.2540.505000.315.535.84TF14.76335.76272476.918251906900.22647036083531614225235WETMH
2023-09-28 00:00:02FORECAST20233658046.5833.96240.271000.255.555.8TF14.58334.58272476.918251906900.221589341452841614225235WETMH
2023-09-27 20:00:02FORECAST20233658044.99632.2738.633000.245.445.68TF12.996332.996272476.918251906900.181298346929091614225235WETM
2023-09-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233658044.61832.43238.525000.325.445.76TF12.618331.618272476.918251906900.17240594044131614225235WETM
2023-09-27 12:00:03FORECAST20233658044.92431.89238.408000.265.445.7TF12.924334.924272476.918251906900.179582825941121614225235WETM
2023-09-27 08:00:03FORECAST20233658043.55630.0236.788000.265.165.42TF11.556327.556272476.918251906900.148936892910291614225235WETM
2023-09-27 04:00:05FORECAST20233658044.00631.58637.796000.245.045.28TF12.006330.006272476.918251906900.158608240602311614225235WETM
2023-09-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233658044.3331.20837.769000.324.875.19TF12.33332.33272476.918251906900.165820402768571614225235WETM
2023-09-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233658042.13431.15436.644000.35.025.32TF10.134327.134272476.918251906900.12100150776371614225235WETM
2023-09-26 16:00:03FORECAST20233658041.50428.79635.15000.264.825.08TF9.504327.504272476.918251906900.109880986628321614225235WETM
2023-09-26 12:00:03FORECAST20233658043.2529.33636.293000.214.634.84TF11.25331.25272476.918251906900.142589603151611614225235WETM
2023-09-26 08:00:04FORECAST20233658044.85230.32637.589000.224.534.75TF12.852335.852272476.918251906900.177877518959431614225235WETM
2023-09-26 04:00:05FORECAST20233658043.68231.08237.382000.264.694.95TF11.682331.682272476.918251906900.151604383741761614225235WETM
2023-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20233658043.77230.95637.364000.464.214.67TF11.772333.772272476.918251906900.153529007762681614225235WETM
2023-09-25 20:00:02FORECAST20233658043.84430.30837.076000.454.434.88TF11.844332.844272476.918251906900.155080276087931614225235WETM
2023-09-25 16:00:03FORECAST20233658043.28630.236.743000.484.254.73TF11.286333.286272476.918251906900.143326729119331614225235WETM
2023-09-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233658044.67230.70437.688000.494.585.07TF12.672334.672272476.918251906900.173659008800811614225235WETM
2023-09-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233658044.5130.93837.724000.474.765.23TF12.51330.51272476.918251906900.169917112341421614225235WETM
2023-09-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233658045.28431.53238.408000.424.655.07TF13.284329.284272476.918251906900.188262314785621614225235WETM
2023-09-25 00:00:05FORECAST20233658045.55432.21638.885000.293.423.71TF13.554332.554272476.918251906900.194938444308831614225235DRYL
2023-09-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233658045.1432.16238.651000.273.734TF13.14331.14272476.918251906900.184759981572121614225235DRYL
2023-09-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233658045.51834.62840.073000.263.844.1TF13.518338.518272476.918251906900.194040084965761614225235WETMH
2023-09-24 12:00:05FORECAST20233658047.71433.96240.838000.54.024.52TF15.714342.714272476.918251906900.253327064521411624235260WETMH
2023-09-24 08:00:04FORECAST20233658046.5831.67639.128000.493.94.39TF14.58337.58272476.918251906900.221589341452841614225235WETM
2023-09-24 04:00:05FORECAST20233658046.70631.47839.092000.394.124.51TF14.706334.706272476.918251906900.224999726475331614225235WETM
2023-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST20233658039.57830.36234.9701.066929711.896929714.055.94692971TT7.578316.578272476.918251906900.0804560401834571614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233658040.15431.04635.601.043307651.823307654.326.14330765TT8.154320.154272476.918251906900.0885553054363111614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233658040.80231.24436.02301.047244661.957244664.236.18724466TT8.802324.802272476.918251906900.0983733219329911614255287.5WETH
2023-09-23 12:00:03FORECAST20233658041.1832.73836.95900.11811030.81811033.954.7681103TF9.18329.18272476.918251906900.104455403822481614235252.5WETM
2023-09-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233658043.62835.31239.4700.129921330.819921333.84.61992133TF11.628334.628272476.918251906900.150457319700431614235252.5WETM
2023-09-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233658047.336.42841.86400.413386050.503386054.154.65338605TF15.3332.3272476.918251906900.241471186637631614235252.5WETMH
2023-09-23 00:00:04FORECAST20233658048.81239.09243.95200.464567180.684567184.765.44456718TF16.812336.812272476.918251906900.286190251218111624235260WETMH
2023-09-22 20:00:06FORECAST20233658048.5639.57844.06900.421260070.641260074.815.45126007TF16.56341.56272476.918251906900.27847217737681624235260WETMH
2023-09-22 16:00:05FORECAST20233658042.22430.236.21200.03937010.36937013.984.3493701TF10.224325.224272476.918251906900.122652410464131614225235WETM
2023-09-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233658041.79230.41636.10400.700787780.960787783.234.19078778TF9.792330.792272476.918251906900.114870448096941614235252.5WETM
2023-09-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233658041.0930.14635.61800.62992160.90992163.554.4599216TF9.09330.09272476.918251906900.102983226555111614235252.5WETM
2023-09-22 04:00:06FORECAST20233658045.91432.28839.10100.688976750.718976753.574.28897675TF13.914330.914272476.918251906900.2040601474791614235252.5WETM
2023-09-22 00:00:04FORECAST20233658043.98828.4936.239000.23.273.47FF11.988347.988272476.918251906900.158213672586051614225235DRYL
2023-09-21 20:00:11FORECAST20233658045.51829.15637.337000.193.363.55FF13.518331.518272476.918251906900.194040084965761614225235DRYL
2023-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST20233658048.41629.35438.885001.013.564.57TF16.416335.416272476.918251906900.27410780129491624245280WETM
2023-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233658041.5428.11234.826000.923.134.05TF9.54327.54272476.918251906900.110496050098691614235252.5WETM
2023-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233658051.42229.31840.37000.93.154.05TF19.422344.422272476.918251906900.371442528939521624235260WETMH
2023-09-21 04:00:06FORECAST20233658053.20432.5442.872001.123.364.48TF21.204352.204272476.918251906900.433858434722311624245280WETMH
2023-09-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233658035.2432.57633.90800.122047311.192047312.363.55204731TF3.24348.24272476.918251906900.0362166198442781614245270DRYH
2023-09-20 20:00:04FORECAST20233658035.58232.57634.07900.125984321.185984322.173.35598432TF3.582351.582272476.918251906900.0387597574109781614245270DRYH
2023-09-20 16:00:04FORECAST20233658038.01229.333.65600.129921331.359921332.153.50992133TF6.012351.012272476.918251906900.0612598008332791614245270DRYH
2023-09-20 12:00:04FORECAST20233658036.66232.97234.817001.343.524.86TF4.662342.662272476.918251906900.0477554511251711614245270WETM
2023-09-20 08:00:03FORECAST20233658036.66232.97234.817001.313.134.44TF4.662347.662272476.918251906900.0477554511251711614245270WETM
2023-09-20 04:00:07FORECAST20233658037.47236.0536.76100.031496081.021496082.733.75149608TF5.472350.472272476.918251906900.0555388700783391614245270DRYH