Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 29, 2023

[ Thursday, September 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 30, 2023 ]

DAY 364 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/30/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 43.09°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.72°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 37.90°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.156 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 11 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 342 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 2.61 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 3.50 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 6.11 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 271 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 476.46 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 79 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 1 D1: 4 D2: 2 D3: 5 D4: 5 D5: 2 HSdry: 87.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-30 04:00:03	OBSERVATION	2023	364	79	43.08998	32.72	37.90499	0	0	2.61	3.5	6.11	T	T	11.08998	342.08998	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15607223700572	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-30 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.16	30.362	36.761	0	0	2.61	3.5	6.11	T	T	11.16	342.16	272	476.9182519069	0	0.15746389851674	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.27	30.74	36.005	0	0	2.61	3.5	6.11	T	T	9.27	340.27	272	476.9182519069	0	0.12273173637195	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-29 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.026	30.236	36.131	0	0.00787402	2.61787402	3.5	6.11787402	T	T	10.026	341.026	272	476.9182519069	0	0.13592145955852	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-29 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.252	29.03	35.141	0	0	2.61	3.5	6.11	T	T	9.252	340.252	272	476.9182519069	0	0.12242900273043	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-29 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	44.06	29.858	36.959	0	0	2.27	3.5	5.77	T	T	12.06	345.06	271	476.45764666845	0	0.17607305713661	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.916	29.93	36.923	0	0	2.36	3.5	5.86	T	T	11.916	343.916	271	476.45764666845	0	0.17300574446497	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.61	31.136	37.373	0	0	2.36	3.5	5.86	T	T	11.61	343.61	271	476.45764666845	0	0.16660123747058	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.818	28.886	35.852	0	0	2.36	3.5	5.86	T	T	10.818	342.818	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15074348467858	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.106	30.794	36.95	0	0	2.34	3.5	5.84	T	T	11.106	344.106	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15638992233067	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.97	32.558	38.264	0	0	2.35	3.5	5.85	T	T	11.97	345.97	271	476.45764666845	0	0.17415198428201	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-28 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.826	31.514	37.67	0	0	2.31	3.5	5.81	T	T	11.826	344.826	271	476.45764666845	0	0.17110602653391	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.178	30.884	37.031	0	0	2.19	3.5	5.69	T	T	11.178	345.178	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15782296234125	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.124	31.316	37.22	0	0	2.27	3.5	5.77	T	T	11.124	344.124	271	476.45764666845	0	0.1567473785199	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	44.69	33.062	38.876	0	0	2.21	3.5	5.71	T	T	12.69	346.69	271	476.45764666845	0	0.18989282899926	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	H
2023-09-27 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.396	31.55	36.473	0	0	1.93	3.5	5.43	T	F	9.396	341.396	271	476.45764666845	0	0.1248655300829	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-27 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.332	32.504	37.418	0	0.02362206	1.79362206	3.5	5.29362206	T	F	10.332	343.332	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14152572514564	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.576	31.028	36.302	0	0.01968505	1.60968505	3.59	5.19968505	T	F	9.576	344.576	271	476.45764666845	0	0.12795841690701	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.442	30.632	35.537	0	0.02362206	1.57362206	3.76	5.33362206	T	F	8.442	342.442	271	476.45764666845	0	0.10934326489433	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-26 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.964	29.408	35.186	0	0	1.33	3.76	5.09	T	F	8.964	342.964	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11765620510565	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-26 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.386	29.462	35.924	0	0	1.09	3.76	4.85	T	F	10.386	345.386	271	476.45764666845	0	0.1425306918642	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-26 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.566	30.434	36.5	0	0	1.06	3.7	4.76	T	F	10.566	347.566	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14591527331259	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-26 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.874	29.228	35.051	0	0	1.18	3.78	4.96	T	F	8.874	344.874	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11619199505593	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-26 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.838	29.318	35.078	0	0.03543309	1.57543309	3.1	4.67543309	T	F	8.838	346.838	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11560993562714	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	39.218	29.336	34.277	0	0.03543309	1.56543309	3.32	4.88543309	T	F	7.218	346.218	271	476.45764666845	0	0.09151956990047	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.01	29.282	34.646	0	0.0393701	1.4393701	3.3	4.7393701	T	F	8.01	347.01	271	476.45764666845	0	0.10278854523026	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-25 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.126	28.688	34.907	0	0.1181103	1.7881103	3.29	5.0781103	T	F	9.126	347.126	271	476.45764666845	0	0.12032449305747	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	39.83	28.634	34.232	0	0.1181103	1.8281103	3.41	5.2381103	T	F	7.83	342.83	271	476.45764666845	0	0.10014311225908	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	364	79	39.542	28.184	33.863	0	0.03149608	1.74149608	3.34	5.08149608	T	F	7.542	340.542	271	476.45764666845	0	0.096014041820987	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.27	28.796	35.033	0	0	1.07	2.65	3.72	T	F	9.27	344.27	271	476.45764666845	0	0.12273173637195	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-24 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.676	28.112	34.394	0	0	1.07	2.94	4.01	T	F	8.676	342.676	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11301622669195	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-24 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.278	32.882	37.58	0	0	1.07	3.04	4.11	T	F	10.278	350.278	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14052555704076	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.936	33.854	37.895	0	0.01574804	1.45574804	3.07	4.52574804	T	F	9.936	351.936	271	476.45764666845	0	0.13430238104397	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.036	31.262	36.149	0	0	1.55	2.85	4.4	T	F	9.036	348.036	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11883691106512	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.64	31.442	36.041	0	0	1.7	2.82	4.52	T	F	8.64	344.64	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11244551311517	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-24 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	364	79	37.67	27.176	32.423	0	0.59448851	2.07448851	2.82	4.89448851	T	F	5.67	333.67	271	476.45764666845	0	0.072172865814042	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	37.022	28.778	32.9	0	0.55511841	2.07511841	3.03	5.10511841	T	F	5.022	337.022	271	476.45764666845	0	0.065070520231625	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	37.328	29.912	33.62	0	0.6692917	2.2292917	2.92	5.1492917	T	F	5.328	341.328	271	476.45764666845	0	0.068353967562221	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	39.506	31.604	35.555	0	0.52362233	1.72362233	2.94	4.66362233	T	F	7.506	344.506	271	476.45764666845	0	0.095506812211627	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.334	32.504	36.419	0	0.50393728	1.75393728	2.75	4.50393728	T	F	8.334	348.334	271	476.45764666845	0	0.10767719172629	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-23 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.774	31.856	36.815	0	0.05118113	1.32118113	2.93	4.25118113	T	F	9.774	341.774	271	476.45764666845	0	0.13142143098226	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	WET	M
2023-09-23 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	45.734	34.376	40.055	0	0.08661422	2.06661422	2.92	4.98661422	T	F	13.734	344.734	271	476.45764666845	0	0.21421132802074	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	MH
2023-09-22 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	364	79	46.076	32.054	39.065	0	0.0787402	2.0887402	2.95	5.0387402	T	F	14.076	350.076	271	476.45764666845	0	0.22255471526531	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.108	30.776	35.942	0	0.01574804	1.84574804	2.47	4.31574804	T	F	9.108	340.108	271	476.45764666845	0	0.12002593535274	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.604	29.462	35.033	0	0.0787402	1.1387402	2.36	3.4987402	T	F	8.604	345.604	271	476.45764666845	0	0.11187685495437	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-22 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.37	29.408	34.889	0	0.07086618	1.19086618	2.65	3.84086618	T	F	8.37	346.37	271	476.45764666845	0	0.10823051160181	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-22 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.674	32.648	37.661	0	0	0.86	2.75	3.61	T	F	10.674	341.674	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14797166883613	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-09-22 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	40.658	30.668	35.663	0	0	1.13	2.35	3.48	T	F	8.658	360.658	271	476.45764666845	0	0.1127306128297	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-21 20:00:10	FORECAST	2023	364	79	41.396	31.19	36.293	0	0	1.14	2.42	3.56	T	F	9.396	343.396	271	476.45764666845	0	0.1248655300829	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-21 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	39.47	30.254	34.862	0	0.43700811	2.35700811	2.22	4.57700811	T	F	7.47	344.47	271	476.45764666845	0	0.095001551002529	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	37.58	30.29	33.935	0	0.12598432	2.32598432	1.73	4.05598432	T	F	5.58	342.58	271	476.45764666845	0	0.071152438889369	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	38.912	31.37	35.141	0	0.15354339	2.28354339	1.78	4.06354339	T	F	6.912	349.912	271	476.45764666845	0	0.087419298596467	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.008	33.962	37.985	0	0.18110246	2.21110246	2.28	4.49110246	T	F	10.008	356.008	271	476.45764666845	0	0.13559658245606	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-21 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.638	33.278	37.958	0	0.08661422	1.36661422	2.07	3.43661422	T	F	10.638	369.638	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14728406491747	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-20 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.412	33.008	38.21	0	0.08661422	1.33661422	1.9	3.23661422	T	F	11.412	373.412	271	476.45764666845	0	0.16253955674804	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-20 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	44.006	34.718	39.362	0	0.48818924	1.30818924	2.08	3.38818924	T	F	12.006	370.006	271	476.45764666845	0	0.17491881297749	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-20 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.016	34.196	38.606	0	0.50787429	2.20787429	2.66	4.86787429	T	F	11.016	363.016	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15461067892772	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-20 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	364	79	43.016	33.998	38.507	0	0.54724439	2.03724439	2.41	4.44724439	T	F	11.016	368.016	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15461067892772	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	WET	M
2023-09-20 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.638	33.494	38.066	0	0.36220492	1.63220492	2.1	3.73220492	T	F	10.638	369.638	271	476.45764666845	0	0.14728406491747	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-20 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	38.336	32.972	35.654	0	0	0.91	1.52	2.43	F	F	6.336	365.336	271	476.45764666845	0	0.080074432661672	16	1	4	2	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-09-19 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	38.318	33.674	35.996	0	0	1.09	1.59	2.68	F	F	6.318	368.318	271	476.45764666845	0	0.079852637940206	16	1	4	2	4	5	2	70	DRY	H
2023-09-19 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.152	37.436	39.794	0	0.53543336	1.94543336	1.23	3.17543336	T	F	10.152	382.152	271	476.45764666845	0	0.13821047521081	16	1	4	2	5	5	2	87.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-19 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	364	79	49.316	39.884	44.6	0	0.50393728	0.92393728	1.02	1.94393728	F	F	17.316	419.316	271	476.45764666845	0	0.31011313330667	16	2	4	3	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2023-09-19 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	364	79	42.89	35.834	39.362	0	0.50393728	0.83393728	0.99	1.82393728	F	F	10.89	411.89	271	476.45764666845	0	0.15214223919873	16	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-09-19 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	364	79	36.482	35.906	36.194	0	0	0.82	0.45	1.27	F	F	4.482	400.482	271	476.45764666845	0	0.059575429014694	16	1	4	3	3	5	2	60	DRY	H