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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 27, 2023

[ Tuesday, September 26, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 28, 2023 ]

DAY 362 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/28/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

WET

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.15°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.35°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.089
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 388

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 2.04 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 3.98 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.56 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 5.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: True
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 269
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 475.53 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 77

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 2
D3: 5
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 87.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-28 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233627738.5500232.1499435.3499802.04000000000013.98000000000011.565.5400000000001TT6.55002387.55002269475.53116862601 00.08852540118589216 14255287.5WETH
2023-09-28 00:00:01FORECAST20233627738.46232.55835.5102.062993244.002993241.565.56299324TT6.462387.462270475.9952878003100.0873538648418741614255287.5WETH
2023-09-27 12:00:02FORECAST20233627738.82232.88235.85201.952756963.892756961.565.45275696TT6.822387.822270475.9952878003100.0922191096750881614255287.5WETH
2023-09-27 08:00:01FORECAST20233627738.62431.87435.24901.669292243.609292241.565.16929224TT6.624387.624270475.9952878003100.0895190565167441614255287.5WETH
2023-09-27 04:00:04FORECAST20233627739.07431.9135.49201.547244933.487244931.565.04724493TT7.074388.074270475.9952878003100.0957418264192471614255287.5WETH
2023-09-27 00:00:02FORECAST20233627740.06432.19836.13101.287402273.317402271.564.87740227TF8.064389.064269475.5311686260100.110536510679081614255287.5WETM
2023-09-26 20:00:02FORECAST20233627739.43432.66636.0501.271654233.471654231.565.03165423TT7.434389.434269475.5311686260100.100943987004921614255287.5WETH
2023-09-26 16:00:02FORECAST20233627739.34433.2636.30201.070866723.270866721.564.83086672TF7.344389.344269475.5311686260100.0996245872979331614255287.5WETM
2023-09-26 12:00:02FORECAST20233627740.06433.8936.97700.877953233.077953231.564.63795323TF8.064390.064269475.5311686260100.110536510679081614255287.5WETM
2023-09-26 08:00:02FORECAST20233627740.94634.30437.62500.838583132.978583131.564.53858313TF8.946390.946269475.5311686260100.125034462171361614255287.5WETM
2023-09-26 04:00:04FORECAST20233627740.5534.05237.30100.921260343.141260341.564.70126034TF8.55389.55269475.5311686260100.118369192981991614255287.5WETM
2023-09-26 00:00:03FORECAST20233627740.11834.05237.08501.118110842.658110841.564.21811084TF8.118392.118269475.5311686260100.111388053639371614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 20:00:01FORECAST20233627740.62234.95237.78701.122047852.882047851.564.44204785TF8.622392.622269475.5311686260100.119562055118511614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 16:00:02FORECAST20233627740.92834.86237.89500.964567452.704567451.564.26456745TF8.928392.928269475.5311686260100.124725937990571614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 12:00:02FORECAST20233627740.76633.33237.04901.295276293.025276291.564.58527629TF8.766392.766269475.5311686260100.121973080285721614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233627739.99232.93636.46401.362205463.212205461.564.77220546TF7.992389.992269475.5311686260100.109408370341221614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233627739.61432.88236.24801.322835363.102835361.564.66283536TF7.614388.614269475.5311686260100.103620786458361614255287.5WETM
2023-09-25 00:00:04FORECAST20233627739.32633.40436.36500.783464992.403464991.033.43346499TF7.326389.326269475.5311686260100.0993622214508531614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-24 20:00:02FORECAST20233627738.44433.24235.84300.803150042.453150041.293.74315004TF6.444389.444269475.5311686260100.08711571399981614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-24 16:00:02FORECAST20233627740.51434.66437.58900.807087052.557087051.293.84708705TF8.514393.514269475.5311686260100.117775917363151614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233627741.1834.93438.05700.956693432.736693431.294.02669343TF9.18396.18269475.5311686260100.12909367929151614255287.5WETM
2023-09-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233627740.58634.32237.45401.059055692.679055691.233.90905569TF8.586393.586269475.5311686260100.118964571539031614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-24 04:00:04FORECAST20233627739.97433.38636.6801.307087322.827087321.34.12708732TF7.974389.974269475.5311686260100.109127627856661614255287.5WETM
2023-09-24 00:00:02FORECAST20233627737.70631.85634.78101.240158152.910158151.154.06015815TF5.706384.706269475.5311686260100.0777626280954831614255287.5WETM
2023-09-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233627738.89433.24236.06801.29921333.08921331.244.3292133TF6.894388.894269475.5311686260100.0932156973746761614255287.5WETM
2023-09-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233627738.98434.2536.61701.322835362.982835361.264.24283536TF6.984391.984269475.5311686260100.0944725573058951614255287.5WETM
2023-09-23 12:00:02FORECAST20233627739.27234.82637.04901.02362262.73362261.233.9636226TF7.272393.272269475.5311686260100.0985781453207731614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233627739.77635.58237.67901.059055692.729055691.083.80905569TF7.776394.776269475.5311686260100.10607347182781614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-23 04:00:05FORECAST20233627738.04833.09835.57301.232284133.002284131.164.16228413TF6.048388.048269475.5311686260100.0819979389478421614255287.5WETM
2023-09-23 00:00:04FORECAST20233627739.233.836.501.846457693.696457691.074.76645769TF7.2385.2269475.5311686260100.097539746199031614255287.5WETM
2023-09-22 20:00:05FORECAST20233627740.49635.43837.96701.874016763.784016761.044.82401676TF8.496389.496269475.5311686260100.1174800674961614255287.5WETM
2023-09-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233627740.22634.89837.56201.515748852.975748851.013.98574885TF8.226387.226269475.5311686260100.113105158239911614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233627740.33435.74438.03900.877953232.297953230.943.23795323TF8.334390.334269475.5311686260100.114841008299451614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233627741.0936.19438.64200.913386322.433386321.133.56338632TF9.09391.09269475.5311686260100.127521791372421614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-22 04:00:05FORECAST20233627739.93834.73637.33700.830709112.390709111.193.58070911TF7.938383.938269475.5311686260100.108567691780441614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233627743.08837.23840.16300.925197352.325197350.953.27519735TF11.088404.088269475.5311686260100.1655847322718916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-21 20:00:08FORECAST20233627740.17233.99837.08500.952756422.3727564213.37275642TF8.172388.172269475.5311686260100.11224426676281614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-21 16:00:04FORECAST20233627740.71234.62837.6701.354331442.704331440.873.57433144TF8.712390.712269475.5311686260100.121064986945421614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233627742.40434.66438.53401.405512572.425512570.713.13551257TF10.404391.404269475.5311686260100.151804295636371614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233627744.34835.5139.92901.37795352.43795350.723.1579535TF12.348395.348269475.5311686260100.193013153217461614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-21 04:00:05FORECAST20233627743.50235.13239.31701.086614762.606614760.763.36661476TF11.502398.502269475.5311686260100.17430565282091614255287.5DRYVH
2023-09-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233627742.8936.12239.50600.303149771.763149770.612.37314977FF10.89411.89269475.5311686260100.1615151352196516143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233627743.75436.39240.07300.27559071.65559070.522.1755907FF11.754413.754269475.5311686260100.1797539858277916143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 16:00:03FORECAST20233627743.59232.70238.14700.07874021.49874020.662.1587402FF11.592407.592269475.5311686260100.17623935022911614345280DRYVH
2023-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20233627743.77231.08237.42700.86614222.84614220.683.5261422TF11.772401.772269475.5311686260100.1801471945472216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 08:00:03FORECAST20233627743.98831.31637.65200.732283862.532283860.613.14228386TF11.988406.988269475.5311686260100.184907637099716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 04:00:06FORECAST20233627742.9834.2538.61500.637795622.337795620.42.73779562TF10.98405.98269475.5311686260100.1633568206614716143552100DRYVH
2023-09-20 00:00:03FORECAST20233627741.12631.8236.47300.834646121.964646120.392.35464612FF9.126410.126269475.5311686260100.1281489469117416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-19 20:00:04FORECAST20233627742.00831.85636.93200.992126522.192126520.392.58212652FF10.008411.008269475.5311686260100.1441838323974216143552100DRYVH
2023-09-19 16:00:04FORECAST20233627744.16835.09639.63201.149606922.119606920.262.37960692FF12.168423.168269475.5311686260100.1889336757048416143552100DRYVH
2023-09-19 12:00:07FORECAST20233627747.13837.4942.31400.263779671.063779670.221.28377967FF15.138436.138269475.5311686260100.262844433479851624345290DRYVH
2023-09-19 08:00:05FORECAST20233627746.18436.39241.28800.232283591.012283590.211.22228359FF14.184437.184269475.5311686260100.237611752288961614345280DRYVH
2023-09-19 04:00:06FORECAST20233627746.05837.54441.80100.456693160.746693160.160.90669316FF14.058446.058269475.5311686260100.234381276437061614335260DRYH
2023-09-19 00:00:03FORECAST20233627755.07644.11449.59500.059055150.119055150.160.27905515FF23.076472.076269475.5311686260100.510375672073541634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 20:00:03FORECAST20233627754.69843.73649.217000.270.180.45FF22.698457.698269475.5311686260100.497827399594291624325245DRYM
2023-09-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233627759.23445.5952.412000.130.210.34FF27.234460.234269475.5311686260100.645067417641691634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 12:00:05FORECAST20233627761.01642.18851.6020000.170.17FF29.016483.016269475.5311686260100.698586434017191634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233627762.02445.71653.870000.180.18FF30.024482.024269475.5311686260100.727155182197641644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:08FORECAST20233627760.78242.85451.818000.330.250.58FF28.782470.782269475.5311686260100.691766862633321634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 00:00:05FORECAST20233627755.79649.65852.7270000.230.23FF23.796481.796269475.5311686260100.534238423086431634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233627755.70649.65852.6820000.290.29FF23.706479.706269475.5311686260100.531260538415911634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:08FORECAST20233627750.41442.27846.346000.070.130.2FF18.414473.414269475.5311686260100.358691835087431624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:07FORECAST20233627745.82442.54844.18600.133858340.833858340.31.13385834FF13.824445.824269475.5311686260100.228446715562551614335260DRYH
2023-09-17 08:00:08FORECAST20233627744.27641.07242.67400.133858340.823858340.321.14385834FF12.276438.276269475.5311686260100.191374962746791614335260DRYH
2023-09-17 04:00:09FORECAST20233627749.89248.14649.0190000.130.13FF17.892445.892269475.5311686260100.342592158311411624315222.5DRYL