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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 23, 2023

[ Friday, September 22, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 24, 2023 ]

DAY 358 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/24/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 46.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 35.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 40.97°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.233
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 467

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.19 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.19 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.35 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.54 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 265
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 473.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 73

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-24 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233587346.0700635.8740.9700300.190000000000050.190000000000050.350.54000000000005FF14.07006467.07006265473.65695444609 00.2329585824058616 14325240DRYM
2023-09-24 00:00:01FORECAST20233587343.735.6939.69500.181102460.181102460.350.53110246FF11.7464.7266474.1281821195700.180660008950111614325240DRYM
2023-09-23 12:00:01FORECAST20233587345.21237.99441.60300.307086780.307086780.350.65708678FF13.212466.212266474.1281821195700.213119453091051614325240DRYM
2023-09-23 08:00:02FORECAST20233587344.8737.45441.16200.188976480.188976480.350.53897648FF12.87465.87266474.1281821195700.205494778371961614325240DRYM
2023-09-23 04:00:04FORECAST20233587343.93437.00440.46900.204724520.204724520.350.55472452FF11.934464.934266474.1281821195700.185470644211061614325240DRYM
2023-09-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233587344.38437.23840.81100.153543390.153543390.350.50354339FF12.384461.384265473.6569544460900.194942300750571614325240DRYM
2023-09-22 20:00:02FORECAST20233587345.37437.92241.64800.153543390.153543390.350.50354339FF13.374462.374265473.6569544460900.216787876798731614325240DRYM
2023-09-22 16:00:02FORECAST20233587345.17637.38241.27900.122047310.122047310.350.47204731FF13.176462.176265473.6569544460900.212309183321541614325240DRYM
2023-09-22 12:00:02FORECAST20233587346.5837.83242.20600.031496080.031496080.350.38149608FF14.58463.58265473.6569544460900.245217639560421614315220DRYL
2023-09-22 08:00:03FORECAST20233587346.50837.61642.06200.141732360.141732360.350.49173236FF14.508463.508265473.6569544460900.243466012061141614325240DRYM
2023-09-22 04:00:04FORECAST20233587345.15836.98641.07200.192913490.192913490.350.54291349FF13.158461.158265473.6569544460900.211904723204471614325240DRYM
2023-09-22 00:00:02FORECAST20233587347.7539.9243.83500.149606380.149606380.350.49960638FF15.75467.75265473.6569544460900.274604791225021624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 20:00:04FORECAST20233587345.5937.11241.35100.137795350.137795350.350.48779535FF13.59462.59265473.6569544460900.221735349380351614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233587345.87837.43641.65700.161417410.161417410.350.51141741FF13.878462.878265473.6569544460900.228431069995971614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233587346.29237.47241.88200.161417410.161417410.350.51141741FF14.292462.292265473.6569544460900.238251867827451614325240DRYM
2023-09-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233587347.5736.80642.18800.149606380.149606380.350.49960638FF15.57463.57265473.6569544460900.269973212406361624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 04:00:05FORECAST20233587348.03838.13843.08800.106299270.106299270.350.45629927FF16.038466.038265473.6569544460900.282095797172751624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20233587348.5639.88444.22200.141732360.141732360.150.29173236FF16.56474.56265473.6569544460900.295918490205711624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233587349.47840.06444.77100.106299270.106299270.20.30629927FF17.478473.478265473.6569544460900.320951346059341624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 16:00:02FORECAST20233587347.64239.8343.73600.122047310.122047310.20.32204731FF15.642471.642265473.6569544460900.271821149957811624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 12:00:03FORECAST20233587347.22839.34443.28600.015748040.015748040.20.21574804FF15.228469.228265473.6569544460900.261282152818941624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233587347.96639.50643.7360000.160.16FF15.966471.966265473.6569544460900.280213862943591624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-20 04:00:05FORECAST20233587349.0139.52444.26700.102362260.102362260.170.27236226FF17.01471.01265473.6569544460900.308078184134561624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20233587348.86638.98443.92500.102362260.102362260.190.29236226FF16.866473.866265473.6569544460900.304163244799941624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 20:00:02FORECAST20233587348.79439.63244.21300.114173290.114173290.160.27417329FF16.794473.794265473.6569544460900.302214116298081624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233587350.6340.80245.71600.070866180.070866180.160.23086618FF18.63478.63265473.6569544460900.353542353716491624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 12:00:05FORECAST20233587354.73440.44247.58800.011811030.011811030.150.16181103FF22.734482.734265473.6569544460900.47696490988151624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233587354.42841.52247.9750000.150.15FF22.428484.428265473.6569544460900.467528889260581624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20233587353.637.65245.6260000.160.16FF21.6484.6265473.6569544460900.44210237677251624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233587351.29638.3944.8430000.160.16FF19.296489.296265473.6569544460900.372905335483161624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20233587349.85638.67844.26700.031496080.031496080.150.18149608FF17.856481.856265473.6569544460900.331509223984921624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233587345.24835.88840.56800.066929170.066929170.140.20692917FF13.248474.248265473.6569544460900.213931520326071614315220DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233587347.19236.71641.9540000.170.17FF15.192482.192265473.6569544460900.260375726320531624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233587346.63437.52642.080000.180.18FF14.634480.634265473.6569544460900.246535786845161614315220DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233587348.21837.442.8090000.150.15FF16.218477.218265473.6569544460900.286827048548151624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233587348.41635.88842.15200.035433090.035433090.120.15543309FF16.416485.416265473.6569544460900.29207441110661624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233587348.72237.50843.11500.082677210.082677210.120.20267721FF16.722482.722265473.6569544460900.300270608002011624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:06FORECAST20233587352.41238.33645.3740000.120.12FF20.412494.412265473.6569544460900.406059248989461624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:05FORECAST20233587349.06437.74243.40300.047244120.047244120.120.16724412FF17.064488.064265473.6569544460900.309551962753761624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:06FORECAST20233587348.34437.00442.67400.047244120.047244120.140.18724412FF16.344483.344265473.6569544460900.290161119105531624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:07FORECAST20233587349.06436.44642.7550000.130.13FF17.064472.064265473.6569544460900.309551962753761624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233587357.21845.71651.4670000.130.13FF25.218489.218265473.6569544460900.553576005798911634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:08FORECAST20233587358.146.56252.3310000.130.13FF26.1496.1265473.6569544460900.580449526454441634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233587355.52644.18649.8560000.130.13FF23.526480.526265473.6569544460900.501434576621751634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233587355.05843.21449.1360000.10.1FF23.058502.058265473.6569544460900.486969974648451624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233587354.89643.41249.1540000.10.1FF22.896500.896265473.6569544460900.481966022503611624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:05FORECAST20233587347.58834.9741.2790000.150.15FF15.588488.588265473.6569544460900.270434607500111624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233587344.67233.09838.8850000.10.1FF12.672471.672265473.6569544460900.201155365091411614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:05FORECAST20233587344.11433.2638.6870000.10.1FF12.114476.114265473.6569544460900.189224590972251614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233587354.1439.36246.7510000.060.06FF22.14485.14265473.6569544460900.458664470671051624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233587352.95238.62445.78800.145669370.145669370.070.21566937FF20.952473.952265473.6569544460900.422363128510751624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233587353.97838.4846.22900.161417410.161417410.060.22141741FF21.978471.978265473.6569544460900.453686968158451624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 04:00:07FORECAST20233587354.51839.07446.79600.007874020.117874020.270.38787402FF22.518473.518265473.6569544460900.470302534797181624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 00:00:05FORECAST20233587357.34440.58648.9650000.230.23FF25.344491.344265473.6569544460900.557433173755191634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233587356.85840.85648.8570000.240.24FF24.858484.858265473.6569544460900.54252879391851634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233587349.42438.78644.10500.074803190.074803190.060.13480319FF17.424487.424265473.6569544460900.319454564439061624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233587348.50637.77843.14200.102362260.102362260.060.16236226FF16.506501.506265473.6569544460900.294474241679771624425250DRYMH
2023-09-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233587349.31637.77843.54700.114173290.114173290.060.17417329FF17.316505.316265473.6569544460900.316469822398851624425250DRYMH
2023-09-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233587346.3136.73441.52200.677165720.677165720.220.89716572FF14.31478.31265473.6569544460900.238684034111281614335260DRYH
2023-09-14 00:00:05FORECAST20233587339.23633.18836.2120000.010.01FF7.236459.236265473.6569544460900.103996565343851614315220DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233587338.24634.19636.2210000.010.01FF6.246465.246265473.6569544460900.0907827025530241614315220DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233587344.56440.142.3320000.010.01FF12.564506.564265473.6569544460900.198811704723371614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:05FORECAST20233587348.18242.51245.3470000.070.07FF16.182510.182265473.6569544460900.285877799070261624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:05FORECAST20233587344.16835.4239.7940000.120.12FF12.168497.168265473.6569544460900.190359814292861614315220DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:09FORECAST20233587335.58235.4235.501000.060.120.18FF3.582457.582265473.6569544460900.0614302866638211614315220DRYL