MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, September 21, 2023

[ Wednesday, September 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, September 22, 2023 ]

DAY 356 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/22/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.57°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 33.90°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 42.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.418
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 20
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 456

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.29 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.28 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 263
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 71

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-22 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233567151.5699633.9000842.73502000.290.280.57FF19.56996455.56996263472.70911005348 00.4178396704046416 24325245DRYM
2023-09-22 00:00:02FORECAST20233567152.89835.52844.213000.290.280.57FF20.898456.898264473.1839327008800.462528988495371624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 12:00:01FORECAST20233567152.17833.96243.07000.290.280.57FF20.178456.178264473.1839327008800.438204847997361624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 08:00:01FORECAST20233567152.3433.9843.16000.290.280.57FF20.34456.34264473.1839327008800.443660795187911624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 04:00:04FORECAST20233567153.63634.77244.204000.290.280.57FF21.636457.636264473.1839327008800.487606744620321624325245DRYM
2023-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20233567155.63435.79845.716000.090.280.37FF23.634464.634263472.7091100534800.555462535890731634315225DRYL
2023-09-20 20:00:02FORECAST20233567155.45435.67245.563000.140.280.42FF23.454463.454263472.7091100534800.549386076149351634325250DRYMH
2023-09-20 16:00:01FORECAST20233567154.3236.55445.437000.140.280.42FF22.32462.32263472.7091100534800.510895567705361634325250DRYMH
2023-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20233567153.4236.19444.807000.140.280.42FF21.42461.42263472.7091100534800.480257393035591624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 08:00:02FORECAST20233567153.70835.76244.735000.10.280.38FF21.708462.708263472.7091100534800.490057587601091624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 04:00:05FORECAST20233567153.56436.71645.14000.110.280.39FF21.564461.564263472.7091100534800.48515636958211624325245DRYM
2023-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20233567153.38436.80645.095000.130.280.41FF21.384465.384263472.7091100534800.479033085722961624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 20:00:02FORECAST20233567153.18635.47444.33000.10.280.38FF21.186465.186263472.7091100534800.472303239994951624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 16:00:02FORECAST20233567153.56436.44645.005000.10.280.38FF21.564466.564263472.7091100534800.48515636958211624325245DRYM
2023-09-19 12:00:04FORECAST20233567153.97836.03245.005000.090.280.37FF21.978466.978263472.7091100534800.499250837014621634315225DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233567154.03238.40846.22000.090.280.37FF22.032469.032263472.7091100534800.501089690900551634315225DRYL
2023-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20233567154.62636.19445.41000.10.280.38FF22.626468.626263472.7091100534800.521306965031151634325250DRYMH
2023-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233567154.89636.17645.536000.10.280.38FF22.896476.896263472.7091100534800.530481664412511634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20233567154.01436.24845.131000.090.280.37FF22.014472.014263472.7091100534800.500476740248351634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:04FORECAST20233567153.18637.18445.185000.080.280.36FF21.186470.186263472.7091100534800.472303239994951624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233567155.07636.82445.95000.110.280.39FF23.076474.076263472.7091100534800.536589453493351634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233567155.25638.7547.003000.120.280.4FF23.256474.256263472.7091100534800.542688630112671634325250DRYMH
2023-09-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233567154.33837.32845.833000.090.280.37FF22.338471.338263472.7091100534800.511508277887351634315225DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233567155.25637.16646.211000.060.280.34FF23.256477.256263472.7091100534800.542688630112671634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:03FORECAST20233567154.48237.8546.166000.060.280.34FF22.482474.482263472.7091100534800.516408860246261634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:05FORECAST20233567155.70635.88845.797000.060.280.34FF23.706478.706263472.7091100534800.55788955661111634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:05FORECAST20233567155.68836.48246.085000.060.280.34FF23.688478.688263472.7091100534800.557283001450771634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:05FORECAST20233567155.00436.84245.923000.080.280.36FF23.004476.004263472.7091100534800.534147291324591634315225DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:07FORECAST20233567152.2535.99644.123000.070.280.35FF20.25466.25263472.7091100534800.440628327044761624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233567153.79839.36246.58000.070.280.35FF21.798468.798263472.7091100534800.493121658456721624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:07FORECAST20233567154.53638.42646.481000.070.280.35FF22.536472.536263472.7091100534800.518245979564471634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233567151.54836.24843.898000.070.280.35FF19.548463.548263472.7091100534800.417107925522791624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233567155.14838.19246.67000.040.280.32FF23.148480.148263472.7091100534800.539030237599641634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233567156.64238.2147.426000.040.280.32FF24.642477.642263472.7091100534800.589210956800011634315225DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:05FORECAST20233567157.05639.77648.416000.090.280.37FF25.056473.056263472.7091100534800.602897462360231634325250DRYMH
2023-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233567154.19437.25645.725000.040.280.32FF22.194464.194263472.7091100534800.506605957389251634315225DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233567154.9536.78845.869000.040.280.32FF22.95468.95263472.7091100534800.532314820385071634315225DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233567154.30236.28445.2930000.280.28FF22.302469.302263472.7091100534800.510282831809171634315225DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233567151.83634.98843.412000.010.280.29FF19.836461.836263472.7091100534800.4267264554311624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233567152.77235.07843.9250000.280.28FF20.772457.772263472.7091100534800.458259507405661624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:07FORECAST20233567151.31436.06843.691000.210.280.49FF19.314460.314263472.7091100534800.409328954607851624325245DRYM
2023-09-15 00:00:05FORECAST20233567153.83437.47245.653000.170.280.45FF21.834467.834263472.7091100534800.49434741057221624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233567153.70837.11245.41000.180.280.46FF21.708461.708263472.7091100534800.490057587601091624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233567156.96638.9347.9480000.280.28FF24.966470.966263472.7091100534800.599932266416431634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233567160.24242.15251.1970000.280.28FF28.242485.242263472.7091100534800.702918140739551644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233567159.57641.8150.6930000.280.28FF27.576488.576263472.7091100534800.682948663925091634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:06FORECAST20233567153.61839.66846.643000.160.280.44FF21.618471.618263472.7091100534800.486994103379161624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 00:00:05FORECAST20233567154.17638.26446.220000.230.23FF22.176463.176263472.7091100534800.505993081974581634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233567154.9537.9446.4450000.230.23FF22.95469.95263472.7091100534800.532314820385071634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20233567163.06846.5854.8240000.230.23FF31.068493.068263472.7091100534800.780556440219491644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:05FORECAST20233567164.79648.61456.7050000.290.29FF32.796493.796263472.7091100534800.821640375395021644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:05FORECAST20233567162.70843.5253.1140000.340.34FF30.708484.708263472.7091100534800.771361004597371644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:08FORECAST20233567157.90240.2849.0910000.340.34FF25.902466.902263472.7091100534800.630458287649041634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233567158.24442.85450.5490000.490.49FF26.244474.244263472.7091100534800.641421196005611634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233567156.6642.29649.4780000.50.5FF24.66462.66263472.7091100534800.589808416386651634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233567156.31843.12449.7210000.220.22FF24.318489.318263472.7091100534800.578422588129861634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233567155.99440.40648.20000.220.22FF23.994486.994263472.7091100534800.567575036284921634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:06FORECAST20233567154.51837.97646.2470000.220.22FF22.518485.518263472.7091100534800.517633647576971634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:07FORECAST20233567150.55837.34643.95200.31496080.34496080.220.5649608FF18.558466.558263472.7091100534800.384454460437481624325245DRYM
2023-09-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233567139.6143235.80700.102362260.102362260.220.32236226FF7.614474.614263472.7091100534800.109653705150291614325240DRYM
2023-09-11 20:00:04FORECAST20233567142.33238.46240.3970000.220.22FF10.332473.332263472.7091100534800.159597143456291614315220DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:04FORECAST20233567141.77438.6640.2170000.220.22FF9.774470.774263472.7091100534800.148292888395051614315220DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:05FORECAST20233567143.5242.45842.989000.010.220.23FF11.52461.52263472.7091100534800.185487910446291614315220DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:04FORECAST20233567142.4441.43241.936000.010.220.23FF10.44462.44263472.7091100534800.161848383513491614315220DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:06FORECAST20233567141.23440.29840.766000.020.220.24FF9.234469.234263472.7091100534800.137874269095551614315220DRYL