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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, September 20, 2023

[ Tuesday, September 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, September 21, 2023 ]

DAY 355 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/21/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 38.64°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 32.84°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 35.74°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.076
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 7
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 461

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.24 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.29 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 262
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 472.23 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 70

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-21 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233557038.6400232.8400635.7400400.240000000000010.290000000000010.40.69000000000001FF6.64002460.64002262472.23247964746 00.07563092550649216 14325240DRYM
2023-09-21 00:00:02FORECAST20233557043.5232.21637.86800.043307110.093307110.40.49330711FF11.52465.52263472.7091100534800.16050528921341614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 12:00:02FORECAST20233557043.28631.5537.41800.086614220.136614220.40.53661422FF11.286465.286263472.7091100534800.155387775949081614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 08:00:01FORECAST20233557044.34831.53237.9400.047244120.097244120.40.49724412FF12.348466.348263472.7091100534800.179484387929361614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 04:00:04FORECAST20233557042.8931.6437.26500.062992160.112992160.40.51299216FF10.89464.89263472.7091100534800.146974652427261614325240DRYM
2023-09-20 00:00:02FORECAST20233557044.85231.7338.29100.098425250.128425250.40.52842525FF12.852468.852262472.2324796474600.191698460479011614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 20:00:01FORECAST20233557044.13231.1937.66100.070866180.100866180.40.50086618FF12.132469.132262472.2324796474600.174402628027461614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 16:00:01FORECAST20233557044.6930.99237.84100.074803190.104803190.40.50480319FF12.69469.69262472.2324796474600.187718246489661614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 12:00:03FORECAST20233557044.7832.61238.69600.059055150.089055150.40.48905515FF12.78469.78262472.2324796474600.189923149724141614315220DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:03FORECAST20233557046.18434.32240.25300.062992160.092992160.40.49299216FF14.184472.184262472.2324796474600.226340313208371614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 04:00:05FORECAST20233557045.44632.23438.8400.082677210.102677210.40.50267721FF13.446471.446262472.2324796474600.206728432896971614325240DRYM
2023-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233557045.51833.09839.30800.082677210.102677210.40.50267721FF13.518478.518262472.2324796474600.208596401457931614325240DRYM
2023-09-18 20:00:02FORECAST20233557044.56432.14438.35400.055118140.085118140.40.48511814FF12.564474.564262472.2324796474600.184658011957541614315220DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:04FORECAST20233557044.36632.28838.32700.062992160.082992160.40.48299216FF12.366474.366262472.2324796474600.179912018896891614315220DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233557045.7732.88239.32600.106299270.106299270.40.50629927FF13.77475.77262472.2324796474600.215212023370891614325240DRYM
2023-09-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233557046.32833.7140.01900.11811030.11811030.40.5181103FF14.328476.328262472.2324796474600.230285763227831614325240DRYM
2023-09-18 04:00:05FORECAST20233557045.3233.7139.51500.094488240.094488240.40.49448824FF13.32474.32262472.2324796474600.203483375238871614325240DRYM
2023-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233557046.5832.79239.68600.055118140.055118140.40.45511814FF14.58478.58262472.2324796474600.237281797554341614315220DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:03FORECAST20233557046.47233.0839.77600.047244120.057244120.40.45724412FF14.472477.472262472.2324796474600.234269316204681614315220DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:04FORECAST20233557048.07433.72840.90100.059055150.059055150.40.45905515FF16.074480.074262472.2324796474600.281051669060251624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233557047.78634.12440.95500.051181130.061181130.40.46118113FF15.786479.786262472.2324796474600.272320071889291624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:05FORECAST20233557045.73433.13439.43400.059055150.079055150.40.47905515FF13.734477.734262472.2324796474600.214259560003931614315220DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:06FORECAST20233557043.73632.50438.1200.047244120.067244120.40.46724412FF11.736470.736262472.2324796474600.165325520635561614315220DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233557047.46236.17641.81900.023622060.073622060.40.47362206FF15.462472.462262472.2324796474600.262660671283591624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233557046.90435.54641.22500.023622060.073622060.40.47362206FF14.904474.904262472.2324796474600.246445370977011614315220DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233557045.46433.20639.33500.031496080.071496080.40.47149608FF13.464469.464262472.2324796474600.207194495991391614315220DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233557049.65834.68242.1700.031496080.041496080.40.44149608FF17.658481.658262472.2324796474600.331336260394311624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233557048.84834.86241.85500.031496080.041496080.40.44149608FF16.848477.848262472.2324796474600.305164925779321624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:05FORECAST20233557047.6634.50241.08100.023622060.093622060.40.49362206FF15.66472.66262472.2324796474600.268542783163511624325245DRYM
2023-09-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233557045.5932.68439.137000.040.40.44FF13.59466.59262472.2324796474600.21047426409991614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233557046.72433.94440.334000.040.40.44FF14.724470.724262472.2324796474600.241331264978141614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233557046.38234.44840.4150000.40.4FF14.382472.382262472.2324796474600.231775146936531614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233557043.12433.20638.16500.007874020.007874020.40.40787402FF11.124467.124262472.2324796474600.151908486837371614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233557043.48433.15238.3180000.40.4FF11.484462.484262472.2324796474600.159710911323531614315220DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:06FORECAST20233557043.64634.30438.97500.185039470.205039470.40.60503947FF11.646465.646262472.2324796474600.163305850078091614325240DRYM
2023-09-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233557048.18234.1641.17100.137795350.167795350.40.56779535FF16.182471.182262472.2324796474600.284360498351624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20233557048.45233.87241.16200.153543390.183543390.40.58354339FF16.452465.452262472.2324796474600.292712954521591624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233557049.78434.8842.3320000.40.4FF17.784470.784262472.2324796474600.335486716403431624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233557052.80835.49244.150000.40.4FF20.808481.808262472.2324796474600.440033546266371624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233557053.16837.65245.410000.40.4FF21.168486.168262472.2324796474600.45292529686281624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:06FORECAST20233557050.75637.50844.13200.070866180.160866180.40.56086618FF18.756474.756262472.2324796474600.3681477448241624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233557048.05635.16841.6120000.350.35FF16.056466.056262472.2324796474600.280502009254161624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233557048.52434.84441.6840000.350.35FF16.524471.524262472.2324796474600.294959348619091624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20233557055.23838.31846.7780000.350.35FF23.238487.238262472.2324796474600.527598596606561634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233557057.0239.16448.092000.060.350.41FF25.02486.02262472.2324796474600.591208700608151634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233557055.1336.51845.824000.110.350.46FF23.13479.13262472.2324796474600.523703806532621634325250DRYMH
2023-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20233557052.57433.69243.133000.110.350.46FF20.574465.574262472.2324796474600.431687000491411624325245DRYM
2023-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233557052.93434.84443.889000.270.340.61FF20.934472.934262472.2324796474600.444539147385111624325245DRYM
2023-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233557051.45835.16843.313000.280.340.62FF19.458463.458262472.2324796474600.392360237819551624325245DRYM
2023-09-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233557056.96644.58250.7740000.340.34FF24.966489.966262472.2324796474600.589307418564351634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233557057.75843.12450.4410000.340.34FF25.758487.758262472.2324796474600.616960088619671634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:05FORECAST20233557057.00240.76648.8840000.340.34FF25.002488.002262472.2324796474600.590575175967931634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20233557055.07640.53247.80400.027559070.027559070.340.36755907FF23.076473.076262472.2324796474600.521755538559481634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233557055.59840.4648.0290000.340.34FF23.598491.598262472.2324796474600.540560105414711634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233557057.77643.08850.4320000.340.34FF25.776487.776262472.2324796474600.617582262119131634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233557058.1942.8950.540000.340.34FF26.19486.19262472.2324796474600.631805528108721634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:04FORECAST20233557054.35642.38648.37100.007874020.007874020.340.34787402FF22.356475.356262472.2324796474600.495747238887581624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:04FORECAST20233557054.3242.74648.53300.007874020.007874020.340.34787402FF22.32477.32262472.2324796474600.494446379004811624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:06FORECAST20233557054.75232.70243.72700.023622060.023622060.340.36362206FF22.752484.752262472.2324796474600.510056638922221634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:06FORECAST20233557051.8938.37245.13100.043307110.043307110.340.38330711FF19.89486.89262472.2324796474600.40747684969961624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:05FORECAST20233557043.1637.70640.43300.055118140.125118140.340.46511814FF11.16475.16262472.2324796474600.152677166216341614325240DRYM
2023-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233557038.1232.10835.11400.133858340.133858340.340.47385834FF6.12473.12262472.2324796474600.0691284422431391614325240DRYM
2023-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20233557035.92434.30435.1140000.340.34FF3.924467.924262472.2324796474600.0462972000768051614315220DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233557035.88834.4335.1590000.340.34FF3.888465.888262472.2324796474600.0459806500749171614315220DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:11FORECAST20233557034.733.29633.9980000.340.34FF2.7488.7262472.2324796474600.0364713915401571614315220DRYL