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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 2, 2023

[ Friday, September 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 3, 2023 ]

DAY 337 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/03/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 62.07°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.845
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 594

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.73 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.62 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 244
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 463.34 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 52

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 3
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 165.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-03 04:00:03OBSERVATION20233375269.9400454.1999462.06999000.730.621.35FF37.94004593.94004244463.33603098816 00.8451938775277916 434351165DRYVH
2023-09-03 00:00:02FORECAST20233375265.89448.75857.326000.730.621.35FF33.894589.894245463.8464037480200.734388800284571643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-02 12:00:02FORECAST20233375265.67849.60457.641000.730.621.35FF33.678589.678245463.8464037480200.727520817205871643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-02 08:00:01FORECAST20233375266.95649.33458.145000.730.621.35FF34.956590.956245463.8464037480200.766833317573581643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-02 04:00:05FORECAST20233375267.60449.33458.469000.730.621.35FF35.604591.604245463.8464037480200.785497195192041643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-02 00:00:02FORECAST20233375267.83849.65858.748000.730.621.35FF35.838588.838244463.3360309881600.792017751867351643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-01 20:00:01FORECAST20233375267.06449.78458.424000.730.621.35FF35.064589.064244463.3360309881600.770005080099321643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-01 16:00:02FORECAST20233375265.53450.6358.082000.730.621.35FF33.534587.534244463.3360309881600.722893740292441643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-01 12:00:02FORECAST20233375265.22850.84658.037000.730.621.35FF33.228587.228244463.3360309881600.712935514375351643435282.5DRYVH
2023-09-01 08:00:02FORECAST20233375264.63450.14457.38900.023622060.753622060.621.37362206FF32.634586.634244463.3360309881600.693136032941741633435275DRYVH
2023-09-01 04:00:04FORECAST20233375264.6749.4657.065000.730.621.35FF32.67585.67244463.3360309881600.694352989601561633435275DRYVH
2023-09-01 00:00:02FORECAST20233375265.73249.98257.85700.070866180.460866180.621.08086618FF33.732588.732244463.3360309881600.729246037839221643425255DRYH
2023-08-31 20:00:02FORECAST20233375265.94850.75658.35200.106299270.416299270.621.03629927FF33.948587.948244463.3360309881600.736091992739491643425255DRYH
2023-08-31 16:00:02FORECAST20233375263.8650.3657.1100.066929170.376929170.620.99692917FF31.86585.86244463.3360309881600.666474835445151633425250DRYMH
2023-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20233375263.60850.75657.18200.051181130.361181130.620.98118113FF31.608585.608244463.3360309881600.657601136160871633425250DRYMH
2023-08-31 08:00:03FORECAST20233375262.85249.44256.14700.066929170.386929170.621.00692917FF30.852582.852244463.3360309881600.630471110877271633425250DRYMH
2023-08-31 04:00:05FORECAST20233375262.29448.57855.43600.062992160.472992160.621.09299216FF30.294581.294244463.3360309881600.610012296930661633425250DRYMH
2023-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20233375262.61847.78655.20200.047244120.317244120.490.80724412FF30.618587.618244463.3360309881600.621932764429151633425250DRYMH
2023-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20233375263.69849.42456.56100.059055150.309055150.480.78905515FF31.698592.698244463.3360309881600.660780622010661633425250DRYMH
2023-08-30 16:00:02FORECAST20233375262.85247.5755.211000.680.481.16FF30.852587.852244463.3360309881600.630471110877271633435275DRYVH
2023-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233375264.70649.33457.02000.660.481.14FF32.706590.706244463.3360309881600.695567805203051633435275DRYVH
2023-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20233375262.67248.27255.472000.690.511.2FF30.672583.672244463.3360309881600.623908616454381633435275DRYVH
2023-08-30 04:00:06FORECAST20233375263.06848.21855.643000.880.481.36FF31.068583.068244463.3360309881600.638296086193081633435275DRYVH
2023-08-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233375263.89650.10857.002000.580.40.98FF31.896587.896244463.3360309881600.667735085282921633435275DRYVH
2023-08-29 16:00:03FORECAST20233375262.97848.63255.805000.480.280.76FF30.978583.978244463.3360309881600.635042483475531633425250DRYMH
2023-08-29 12:00:02FORECAST20233375261.93448.27255.103000.520.270.79FF29.934580.934244463.3360309881600.596645425186511633435275DRYVH
2023-08-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233375261.75448.66855.211000.870.341.21FF29.754583.754244463.3360309881600.589918341470971633435275DRYVH
2023-08-29 04:00:08FORECAST20233375261.7949.20855.49900.102362260.672362260.250.92236226FF29.79580.79244463.3360309881600.591265944635131633435275DRYVH
2023-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20233375259.95447.76853.86100.082677210.422677210.330.75267721FF27.954574.954244463.3360309881600.521511824947771633425250DRYMH
2023-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20233375260.47648.03854.25700.07874020.31874020.350.6687402FF28.476576.476244463.3360309881600.541506742947341633425250DRYMH
2023-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20233375256.08446.18451.13400.098425250.348425250.510.85842525FF24.084565.084244463.3360309881600.3749264619521623425245DRYM
2023-08-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233375258.02847.76852.89800.059055150.779055150.611.38905515FF26.028573.028244463.3360309881600.447660127106581623435267.5DRYH
2023-08-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233375253.94245.12249.532001.040.521.56FF21.942569.942244463.3360309881600.299732523677491623445290DRYVH
2023-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233375253.94245.12249.532001.040.521.56FF21.942569.942244463.3360309881600.299732523677491623445290DRYVH
2023-08-28 00:00:04FORECAST20233375253.94245.12249.532001.040.521.56FF21.942566.942244463.3360309881600.299732523677491623445290DRYVH
2023-08-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233375253.94245.12249.532001.040.521.56FF21.942567.942244463.3360309881600.299732523677491623445290DRYVH
2023-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233375255.41844.58250001.050.521.57FF23.418571.418244463.3360309881600.350864615219371623445290DRYVH
2023-08-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233375259.19846.50852.85300.027559070.177559070.470.64755907FF27.198580.198244463.3360309881600.492470800112511623425245DRYM
2023-08-27 08:00:03FORECAST20233375259.79246.70653.24900.043307110.213307110.470.68330711FF27.792579.792244463.3360309881600.515293104030121633425250DRYMH
2023-08-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233375262.8747.98455.427000.040.380.42FF30.87579.87244463.3360309881600.631125311415131633415225DRYL
2023-08-27 00:00:04FORECAST20233375261.64646.09453.8700.098425250.168425250.310.47842525FF29.646570.646244463.3360309881600.585869218089511633425250DRYMH
2023-08-26 20:00:04FORECAST20233375260.60245.62653.11400.086614220.156614220.310.46661422FF28.602572.602244463.3360309881600.546319334933271633425250DRYMH
2023-08-26 16:24:22FORECAST20233375263.33845.89654.6170000.320.32FF31.338570.338244463.3360309881600.647996271429041633415225DRYL
2023-08-26 12:23:48FORECAST20233375267.151.24259.1710000.640.64FF35.1582.1244463.3360309881600.77105695282661643415227.5DRYL
2023-08-26 08:23:18FORECAST20233375266.86652.50259.6840000.580.58FF34.866588.866244463.3360309881600.764171771027371643415227.5DRYL
2023-08-26 04:38:06FORECAST20233375267.76650.91859.3420000.630.63FF35.766580.766244463.3360309881600.790023971615911643415227.5DRYL
2023-08-26 00:17:18FORECAST20233375268.82853.92461.3760000.250.25FF36.828587.828244463.3360309881600.81828459715151643415155DRYH
2023-08-25 16:00:05FORECAST20233375271.22254.24862.7350000.080.08FF39.222596.222244463.3360309881600.872782357471531653415160DRYH
2023-08-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233375273.29254.48263.8870000.150.15FF41.292602.292244463.3360309881600.909771089169541653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 08:00:04FORECAST20233375272.71655.27463.9950000.240.24FF40.716597.716244463.3360309881600.900387133282781653415160DRYH
2023-08-25 04:00:07FORECAST20233375269.20654.44661.8260000.220.22FF37.206590.206244463.3360309881600.827741844243991643415155DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:04FORECAST20233375271.655.6763.6350000.080.08FF39.6593.6244463.3360309881600.880222281792521653415160DRYH
2023-08-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233375270.80856.15663.4820000.130.13FF38.808598.808244463.3360309881600.864272805793491653415160DRYH
2023-08-24 16:00:04FORECAST20233375268.14451.54859.8460000.430.43FF36.144589.144244463.3360309881600.800366014117771643415155DRYH
2023-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233375269.78251.60260.69200.066929170.066929170.410.47692917FF37.782596.782244463.3360309881600.841538459093381643415155DRYH
2023-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233375268.48650.57659.53100.066929170.066929170.450.51692917FF36.486579.486244463.3360309881600.809454319222641643415155DRYH
2023-08-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233375271.67252.77262.2220000.270.27FF39.672593.672244463.3360309881600.88160400367291653415160DRYH
2023-08-24 00:00:04FORECAST20233375256.01254.26655.1390000.20.2FF24.012575.012244463.3360309881600.372299630810111623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 20:00:04FORECAST20233375256.04852.73654.3920000.230.23FF24.048584.048244463.3360309881600.373612312685941623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 16:00:04FORECAST20233375256.08449.40652.745000.040.590.63FF24.084577.084244463.3360309881600.3749264619521623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 12:00:05FORECAST20233375251.56648.45250.009000.040.550.59FF19.566573.566244463.3360309881600.225401987920531613415220DRYL
2023-08-23 08:00:05FORECAST20233375251.56648.45250.009000.040.570.61FF19.566566.566244463.3360309881600.225401987920531613415220DRYL
2023-08-23 04:00:08FORECAST20233375253.2452.93453.0870000.350.35FF21.24572.24244463.3360309881600.276658632624821623415222.5DRYL