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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 19, 2023

[ Monday, September 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 20, 2023 ]

DAY 354 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/20/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 44.50°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 34.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 39.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.171
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 12
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 492

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.05 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.40 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.45 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 261
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 471.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 69

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 4
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 20.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-20 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233546944.4999234.1639.3299600.0499999999999550.0499999999999550.40.44999999999995FF12.49992492.49992261471.75403460025 00.170712176146516 14315220DRYL
2023-09-20 00:00:01FORECAST20233546946.09434.77240.43300.031496080.031496080.40.43149608FF14.094494.094262472.2324796474600.211910781187341614315220DRYL
2023-09-19 12:00:02FORECAST20233546947.26435.1541.20700.031496080.031496080.40.43149608FF15.264495.264262472.2324796474600.245536535755351614315220DRYL
2023-09-19 08:00:02FORECAST20233546947.87637.11242.49400.027559070.027559070.40.42755907FF15.876495.876262472.2324796474600.264203532858041624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 04:00:04FORECAST20233546948.43435.43841.93600.019685050.019685050.40.41968505FF16.434496.434262472.2324796474600.281831094899621624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233546949.56836.4142.98900.023622060.023622060.40.42362206FF17.568502.568261471.7540346002500.319303594697811624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 20:00:01FORECAST20233546947.46235.83441.64800.027559070.027559070.40.42755907FF15.462500.462261471.7540346002500.251497392201891624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 16:00:02FORECAST20233546946.6734.66440.66700.023622060.023622060.40.42362206FF14.67499.67261471.7540346002500.22811790665261614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233546946.65235.36641.0090000.40.4FF14.652499.652261471.7540346002500.2276011268491614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-18 08:00:01FORECAST20233546947.44436.541.9720000.40.4FF15.444500.444261471.7540346002500.250952359145421624415225DRYL
2023-09-18 04:00:05FORECAST20233546946.61636.26641.4410000.40.4FF14.616498.616261471.7540346002500.226569543935641614315220DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233546946.77834.8840.8290000.40.4FF14.778501.778261471.7540346002500.231232379910591614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 20:00:02FORECAST20233546946.79635.22241.00900.007874020.007874020.40.40787402FF14.796500.796261471.7540346002500.231753751465611614415222.5DRYL
2023-09-17 16:00:03FORECAST20233546947.62435.56441.5940000.40.4FF15.624501.624261471.7540346002500.256430660821571624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233546948.39835.07841.73800.007874020.007874020.40.40787402FF16.398502.398261471.7540346002500.28067695878591624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:04FORECAST20233546948.235.74441.97200.015748040.015748040.40.41574804FF16.2502.2261471.7540346002500.274370353616071624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:06FORECAST20233546946.25634.19640.22600.023622060.023622060.40.42362206FF14.256497.256261471.7540346002500.216399750699821614315220DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233546948.09236.35642.22400.051181130.051181130.40.45118113FF16.092495.092261471.7540346002500.270960084798931624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:05FORECAST20233546948.05636.28442.1700.051181130.051181130.40.45118113FF16.056498.056261471.7540346002500.269828040771771624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233546946.97634.740.83800.03937010.03937010.40.4393701FF14.976493.976261471.7540346002500.237003274726651614315220DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233546949.76636.21242.98900.007874020.007874020.40.40787402FF17.766501.766261471.7540346002500.326055404506571624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233546949.31636.08642.70100.007874020.007874020.40.40787402FF17.316499.316261471.7540346002500.310796462742551624415225DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:05FORECAST20233546946.54434.95240.74800.066929170.066929170.40.46692917FF14.544494.544261471.7540346002500.224514303310991614315220DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233546947.67834.37641.02700.03937010.03937010.40.4393701FF15.678490.678261471.7540346002500.258086201927431624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233546948.75836.64442.70100.043307110.043307110.40.44330711FF16.758493.758261471.7540346002500.292319802358881624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:03FORECAST20233546949.78435.90642.8450000.40.4FF17.784495.784261471.7540346002500.32667208395791624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20233546949.53234.95242.2420000.40.4FF17.532493.532261471.7540346002500.318082315420651624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:03FORECAST20233546948.93833.33241.1350000.40.4FF16.938488.938261471.7540346002500.298224152267851624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:06FORECAST20233546949.08235.18642.13400.023622060.023622060.40.42362206FF17.082492.082261471.7540346002500.302986333238311624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233546950.57635.49243.03400.031496080.031496080.40.43149608FF18.576492.576261471.7540346002500.354253826190581624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:03FORECAST20233546950.70234.9742.83600.031496080.031496080.40.43149608FF18.702486.702261471.7540346002500.35871785745981624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233546950.61237.83244.2220000.40.4FF18.612490.612261471.7540346002500.355527254322611624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233546953.3340.04646.6880000.40.4FF21.33499.33261471.7540346002500.455345642118221624415225DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233546954.3240.98247.6510000.40.4FF22.32503.32261471.7540346002500.49278195360111624415225DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:06FORECAST20233546952.21441.28846.75100.094488240.094488240.40.49448824FF20.214494.214261471.7540346002500.413631852235261624325245DRYM
2023-09-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233546947.08436.51841.8010000.350.35FF15.084488.084261471.7540346002500.240184039626171614315220DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20233546947.24636.89642.0710000.350.35FF15.246493.246261471.7540346002500.244998422811651614315220DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:03FORECAST20233546949.6435.61842.6290000.350.35FF17.64501.64261471.7540346002500.321752028710531624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233546951.04436.55443.799000.060.350.41FF19.044499.044261471.7540346002500.370930559186041624415225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233546950.46835.65443.061000.110.350.46FF18.468494.468261471.7540346002500.350443353350361624325245DRYM
2023-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20233546947.98434.37641.18000.110.350.46FF15.984482.984261471.7540346002500.267571070797241624325245DRYM
2023-09-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233546947.40836.4141.909000.270.340.61FF15.408490.408261471.7540346002500.249864168366151624325245DRYM
2023-09-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233546947.37237.90442.638000.280.340.62FF15.372482.372261471.7540346002500.248778483808261614325240DRYM
2023-09-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233546955.11242.27848.6950000.340.34FF23.112503.112261471.7540346002500.522792802573871634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233546957.72244.2450.9810000.340.34FF25.722499.722261471.7540346002500.619883376438221634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:05FORECAST20233546957.03844.6950.8640000.340.34FF25.038501.038261471.7540346002500.594904053935541634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20233546955.4941.91848.7040000.340.34FF23.49488.49261471.7540346002500.537081134432791634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20233546958.3744.8751.620000.340.34FF26.37506.37261471.7540346002500.643097284941151634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233546958.38844.6951.5390000.340.34FF26.388500.388261471.7540346002500.643735070027651634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233546958.7344.9651.8450000.340.34FF26.73497.73261471.7540346002500.65577486138641634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:04FORECAST20233546955.5841.8148.6950000.340.34FF23.58490.58261471.7540346002500.540476772226711634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20233546954.75242.13448.4430000.340.34FF22.752492.752261471.7540346002500.509157295626391634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:06FORECAST20233546948.77637.86843.3220000.340.34FF16.776499.776261471.7540346002500.29290778707371624415225DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:05FORECAST20233546954.17640.22647.2010000.340.34FF22.176505.176261471.7540346002500.487324846270951624415225DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233546953.83440.76647.3000.070.340.41FF21.834501.834261471.7540346002500.47437559681161624415225DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233546956.1238.85847.4890000.340.34FF24.12505.12261471.7540346002500.560780088129831634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:04FORECAST20233546958.74836.547.6240000.340.34FF26.748501.748261471.7540346002500.656404312368221634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233546958.29836.4147.3540000.340.34FF26.298500.298261471.7540346002500.640542160627391634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20233546959.21635.40247.3090000.340.34FF27.216524.216261471.7540346002500.672613575507271634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233546951.81839.52445.671000.040.340.38FF19.818511.818261471.7540346002500.399036619673341624415225DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:05FORECAST20233546950.41439.52444.969000.060.340.4FF18.414511.414261471.7540346002500.348543714528611624415225DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:05FORECAST20233546948.00242.47645.23900.043307110.043307110.340.38330711FF16.002502.002261471.7540346002500.268134420972971624415225DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:04FORECAST20233546951.67446.16648.920000.340.34FF19.674502.674261471.7540346002500.393762912426131624415225DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:04FORECAST20233546951.67446.16648.920000.340.34FF19.674504.674261471.7540346002500.393762912426131624415225DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233546953.49250.1851.836000.040.370.41FF21.492507.492261471.7540346002500.461453364671051624415225DRYL