MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 17, 2023

[ Saturday, September 16, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, September 18, 2023 ]

DAY 352 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/18/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 54.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.16°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.28°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.476
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 22
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 512

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.13 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.13 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 259
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 67

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 4
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-18 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233526754.3999244.1600849.280001.131.13FF22.39992512.39992259470.791672921 00.4760288325250116 24415225DRYL
2023-09-18 00:00:02FORECAST20233526755.54443.05249.2980001.131.13FF23.544513.544260471.2737680031200.51673805204931634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-17 12:00:02FORECAST20233526754.89642.90848.9020001.131.13FF22.896512.896260471.2737680031200.49367481153051624415225DRYL
2023-09-17 08:00:02FORECAST20233526755.50844.67250.090001.131.13FF23.508513.508260471.2737680031200.515457517235981634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-17 04:00:05FORECAST20233526755.36443.73649.550001.131.13FF23.364513.364260471.2737680031200.510333915614751634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20233526755.97643.9749.9730001.131.13FF23.976506.976259470.79167292100.532087237671141634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 20:00:02FORECAST20233526756.53444.8750.7020001.131.13FF24.534508.534259470.79167292100.551839632218821634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 16:00:02FORECAST20233526756.04845.4150.7290001.131.13FF24.048508.048259470.79167292100.534641422044341634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20233526758.02847.28252.6550001.131.13FF26.028510.028259470.79167292100.603966369221431634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:02FORECAST20233526758.29847.04852.6730001.131.13FF26.298509.298259470.79167292100.613219675441851634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20233526756.13845.64450.8910001.131.13FF24.138507.138259470.79167292100.537832134508171634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233526756.62445.33850.9810001.131.13FF24.624502.624259470.79167292100.555014796737341634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:03FORECAST20233526756.53445.82451.1790001.131.13FF24.534503.534259470.79167292100.551839632218821634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20233526757.18245.75251.4670001.131.13FF25.182504.182259470.79167292100.574614406212441634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20233526756.1244.97850.5490001.131.13FF24.12503.12259470.79167292100.537194180105321634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20233526755.14844.36649.7570001.131.13FF23.148501.148259470.79167292100.502645579049431634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20233526756.0345.78850.9090001.131.13FF24.03503.03259470.79167292100.534003005581471634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233526757.34445.08651.2150001.131.13FF25.344499.344259470.79167292100.580272459823161634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20233526756.60643.89850.2520001.131.13FF24.606493.606259470.79167292100.554380039448541634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20233526757.97445.62651.80001.131.13FF25.974496.974259470.79167292100.60210847436091634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233526759.39645.84252.6190001.131.13FF27.396499.396259470.79167292100.650141037085121634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20233526760.42246.6753.5460001.131.13FF28.422502.422259470.79167292100.683411091740051634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20233526759.64848.41654.0320001.131.13FF27.648495.648259470.79167292100.658432492865941634315225DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233526759.70246.52653.1140001.081.08FF27.702497.702259470.79167292100.660199501220521634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20233526761.12447.55254.3380001.081.08FF29.124503.124259470.79167292100.705368819294451644415230DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20233526761.5247.78654.6530001.081.08FF29.52505.52259470.79167292100.717437257348831644415230DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233526762.2447.64254.9410001.081.08FF30.24506.24259470.79167292100.738751715412411644415230DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233526760.63847.31853.9780001.081.08FF28.638501.638259470.79167292100.690241315479511634415227.5DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:07FORECAST20233526758.49645.39251.9440001.081.08FF26.496496.496259470.79167292100.6199650967131634315225DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20233526761.46647.60654.5360001.071.07FF29.466501.466259470.79167292100.715805622166721644415230DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20233526759.75646.43653.0960001.071.07FF27.756493.756259470.79167292100.661962998550151634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20233526761.93449.1955.5620001.071.07FF29.934501.934259470.79167292100.729794743527441644415230DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233526760.00847.51653.7620001.071.07FF28.008497.008259470.79167292100.670145241714441634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:04FORECAST20233526760.13448.8354.4820001.071.07FF28.134498.134259470.79167292100.674206359694751634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:06FORECAST20233526757.9244.11451.0170001.071.07FF25.92487.92259470.79167292100.600248261634111634315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20233526762.27648.18255.2290001.071.07FF30.276498.276259470.79167292100.739795371333671644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233526763.35648.97456.1650001.071.07FF31.356494.356259470.79167292100.770078956565251644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233526762.1549.38855.7690001.071.07FF30.15491.15259470.79167292100.736133211097091644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:04FORECAST20233526760.65648.61454.6350001.071.07FF28.656488.656259470.79167292100.690807592820351634315225DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20233526761.19648.48854.8420001.071.07FF29.196492.196259470.79167292100.707580666989081644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20233526764.1350.73857.4340001.071.07FF32.13502.13259470.79167292100.790510842917031644415230DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:05FORECAST20233526766.5652.64659.6030001.071.07FF34.56499.56259470.79167292100.847355436047671644415230DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233526765.96652.35859.1620001.071.07FF33.966497.966259470.79167292100.834502586219351644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233526766.99254.21260.6020001.071.07FF34.992494.992259470.79167292100.856276741982381654315230DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233526768.19851.99860.0980001.071.07FF36.198489.198259470.79167292100.879296132720031654315160DRYH
2023-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233526767.2850.50458.8920001.071.07FF35.28489.28259470.79167292100.862025428763691654315230DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:10FORECAST20233526771.40257.48864.4450001.071.07FF39.402508.402259470.79167292100.927568585481071654415165DRYH
2023-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233526771.20455.7663.4820001.071.07FF39.204504.204259470.79167292100.9250955424361654415165DRYH
2023-09-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233526770.6154.08662.3480001.071.07FF38.61506.61259470.79167292100.917291115894861654415165DRYH
2023-09-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233526767.4654.82461.1420001.071.07FF35.46500.46259470.79167292100.865537864135781654415232.5DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20233526766.23652.1659.1980001.071.07FF34.236493.236259470.79167292100.840428962190711644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233526766.3852.93459.6570001.071.07FF34.38495.38259470.79167292100.843532335006441644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233526763.15850.3656.7590001.11.1FF31.158490.158259470.79167292100.764678801494331644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20233526764.81450.7257.7670001.091.09FF32.814493.814259470.79167292100.807646422304231644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20233526763.1449.31656.2280001.071.07FF31.14484.14259470.79167292100.76418443601621644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:04FORECAST20233526761.55646.07653.81600.007874020.007874021.071.07787402FF29.556476.556259470.79167292100.718522509120771644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:04FORECAST20233526754.01439.7446.87700.090551230.090551231.071.16055123FF22.014457.014259470.79167292100.462332008269341624325245DRYM
2023-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233526754.1438.26446.20200.090551230.090551231.071.16055123FF22.14457.14259470.79167292100.466799805768771624325245DRYM
2023-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20233526761.19645.2353.2130001.071.07FF29.196475.196259470.79167292100.707580666989081644315227.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:04FORECAST20233526750.4541.01845.7340001.071.07FF18.45465.45259470.79167292100.33995191787741624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233526753.54648.54251.0440001.071.07FF21.546484.546259470.79167292100.445783312528381624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:04FORECAST20233526753.00644.11448.560001.071.07FF21.006467.006259470.79167292100.426807164174461624315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:07FORECAST20233526741.77438.35440.0640001.071.07FF9.774462.774259470.79167292100.117585235372491614315220DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:07FORECAST20233526741.64836.4139.0290001.071.07FF9.648446.648259470.79167292100.115379929770261614315220DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:08FORECAST20233526744.56443.21443.8890001.071.07FF12.564446.564259470.79167292100.174136018426561614315220DRYL