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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, September 16, 2023

[ Friday, September 15, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, September 17, 2023 ]

DAY 351 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/17/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.72°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.65°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.917
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 506

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.27 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.27 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 258
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 470.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 66

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-17 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233516672.7199653.6500463.1850001.271.27FF40.71996505.71996258470.30774239242 00.9166434284842616 53415160DRYH
2023-09-17 00:00:02FORECAST20233516666.03850.16258.10001.271.27FF34.038499.038259470.79167292100.79215345804831643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 12:00:02FORECAST20233516667.152.44859.7740001.271.27FF35.1500.1259470.79167292100.817075897101651643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 08:00:01FORECAST20233516666.36251.4458.9010001.271.27FF34.362499.362259470.79167292100.799961121308251643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 04:00:04FORECAST20233516666.32652.30459.3150001.271.27FF34.326499.326259470.79167292100.799102394029391643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233516666.6551.85459.2520001.271.27FF34.65493.65258470.3077423924200.806751338880671643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 20:00:02FORECAST20233516667.7352.14259.9360001.271.27FF35.73494.73258470.3077423924200.830940834517431643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 16:00:02FORECAST20233516667.89252.50260.1970001.271.27FF35.892494.892258470.3077423924200.834394333296951643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 12:00:02FORECAST20233516667.5552.10659.8280001.271.27FF35.55494.55258470.3077423924200.827049906466481643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20233516666.79451.24259.0180001.271.27FF34.794493.794258470.3077423924200.810093160061221643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20233516666.72252.2559.4860001.271.27FF34.722494.722258470.3077423924200.808426703381231643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233516666.54251.458590001.271.27FF34.542489.542258470.3077423924200.804221623794881643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20233516665.46250.23457.8480001.271.27FF33.462485.462258470.3077423924200.777838038599231643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:02FORECAST20233516665.62451.58458.6040001.271.27FF33.624486.624258470.3077423924200.781920016274061643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233516666.2951.38658.8380001.271.27FF34.29488.29258470.3077423924200.798241463236341643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20233516666.7452.12459.4320001.271.27FF34.74489.74258470.3077423924200.808844153243471643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20233516665.31853.16859.2430001.271.27FF33.318484.318258470.3077423924200.774173353864421643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233516665.1251.51258.3160001.221.22FF33.12486.12258470.3077423924200.769079133448981643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:03FORECAST20233516665.85851.63858.7480001.221.22FF33.858489.858258470.3077423924200.787739345832631643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20233516666.7452.95259.8460001.221.22FF34.74491.74258470.3077423924200.808844153243471643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233516666.39852.50259.450001.221.22FF34.398492.398258470.3077423924200.800817642705941643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233516666.1150.79258.4510001.221.22FF34.11489.11258470.3077423924200.793903842712671643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20233516664.79649.98257.3890001.221.22FF32.796485.796258470.3077423924200.760606649504111643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20233516666.43451.72859.0810001.211.21FF34.434488.434258470.3077423924200.801671955902631643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 20:00:03FORECAST20233516664.50851.92658.2170001.211.21FF32.508481.508258470.3077423924200.752935476413311643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20233516667.04652.7959.9180001.211.21FF35.046488.046258470.3077423924200.815855404863831643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20233516665.85851.51258.6850001.211.21FF33.858484.858258470.3077423924200.787739345832631643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:04FORECAST20233516666.61452.03459.3240001.211.21FF34.614485.614258470.3077423924200.805910320972051643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:05FORECAST20233516663.55449.26256.4080001.211.21FF31.554477.554258470.3077423924200.726615071050361643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:04FORECAST20233516666.9253.1560.0350001.211.21FF34.92483.92258470.3077423924200.812987981231141643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233516666.77651.9859.3780001.211.21FF34.776478.776258470.3077423924200.809677381812011643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233516666.23652.1659.1980001.211.21FF34.236477.236258470.3077423924200.796945940751741643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233516665.28251.3558.3160001.211.21FF33.282476.282258470.3077423924200.773251878735621643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20233516666.45252.71859.5850001.211.21FF34.452479.452258470.3077423924200.802098283713541643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20233516666.79452.26859.5310001.211.21FF34.794485.794258470.3077423924200.810093160061221643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233516668.23454.60861.4210001.211.21FF36.234481.234258470.3077423924200.841534479168011643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233516668.52253.47460.9980001.211.21FF36.522479.522258470.3077423924200.847388647968341643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233516669.04455.70662.3750001.211.21FF37.044476.044258470.3077423924200.857630139743791653315155DRYH
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233516668.46855.81462.1410001.211.21FF36.468469.468258470.3077423924200.846302034425291643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233516667.98253.90660.9440001.211.21FF35.982469.982258470.3077423924200.836293138120551643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233516669.8955.7662.8250001.211.21FF37.89484.89258470.3077423924200.873223180226941653315155DRYH
2023-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233516670.75455.99463.3740001.211.21FF38.754480.754258470.3077423924200.887881616942431653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233516670.8854.66262.7710001.211.21FF38.88483.88258470.3077423924200.889914035786631653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233516671.45655.8563.6530001.211.21FF39.456481.456258470.3077423924200.898869651040151653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20233516672.6855.00463.8420001.211.21FF40.68474.68258470.3077423924200.916119920023921653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233516672.9555.63464.2920001.211.21FF40.95476.95258470.3077423924200.919609629551341653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233516668.46854.98661.7270001.241.24FF36.468475.468258470.3077423924200.846302034425291643315150DRYMH
2023-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20233516669.11653.9661.5380001.231.23FF37.116477.116258470.3077423924200.859005491716221653315155DRYH
2023-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20233516667.89251.74659.8190001.211.21FF35.892468.892258470.3077423924200.834394333296951643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:04FORECAST20233516662.63643.77253.2040001.211.21FF30.636462.636258470.3077423924200.700043434251941643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233516655.27439.95647.6150001.211.21FF23.274451.274258470.3077423924200.459532233348321623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233516654.5938.64246.6160001.211.21FF22.59450.59258470.3077423924200.436524930197611623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20233516660.51246.9453.7260001.211.21FF28.512461.512258470.3077423924200.63452988274611633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:04FORECAST20233516662.7849.74856.2640001.211.21FF30.78462.78258470.3077423924200.704287912669091643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233516667.67648.81258.2440001.211.21FF35.676478.676258470.3077423924200.829779488858361643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:04FORECAST20233516666.3851.04458.7120001.211.21FF34.38462.38258470.3077423924200.800389657888341643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:07FORECAST20233516662.56442.47652.520001.211.21FF30.564468.564258470.3077423924200.697910917695581633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:06FORECAST20233516660.13442.58451.3590001.211.21FF28.134453.134258470.3077423924200.622375702194981633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:07FORECAST20233516662.2445.33853.7890001.211.21FF30.24450.24258470.3077423924200.688231615202761633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:07FORECAST20233516650.48642.846.6430001.211.21FF18.486432.486258470.3077423924200.305434679346311623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233516646.86841.23444.0510001.211.21FF14.868430.868258470.3077423924200.207079672982221613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:05FORECAST20233516644.70842.18843.4480001.211.21FF12.708432.708258470.3077423924200.158558142707511613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:05FORECAST20233516651.00848.25449.6310001.211.21FF19.008438.008258470.3077423924200.321168034173491623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233516651.00848.25449.6310001.211.21FF19.008437.008258470.3077423924200.321168034173491623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:07FORECAST20233516652.21451.40451.8090001.211.21FF20.214446.214258470.3077423924200.358727133170921623315220DRYL