MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 15, 2023

[ Thursday, September 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, September 16, 2023 ]

DAY 350 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/16/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.32°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.03°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.17°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.928
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 42
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 484

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.05 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.47 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 257
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 469.82 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 65

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-16 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233506574.3199856.0365.17499000.051.471.52FF42.31998484.31998257469.82196942943 00.9282184067453316 53315155DRYH
2023-09-16 00:00:02FORECAST20233506568.21650.23459.225000.051.471.52FF36.216478.216258470.3077423924200.826589196100651643315150DRYMH
2023-09-15 12:00:01FORECAST20233506568.43250.4559.441000.051.471.52FF36.432478.432258470.3077423924200.831277148619591643315150DRYMH
2023-09-15 08:00:02FORECAST20233506567.78450.37859.081000.051.471.52FF35.784477.784258470.3077423924200.816967852434411643315225DRYL
2023-09-15 04:00:05FORECAST20233506568.6351.72860.179000.051.471.52FF36.63478.63258470.3077423924200.835502369356821643315150DRYMH
2023-09-15 00:00:02FORECAST20233506568.70251.06259.882000.051.471.52FF36.702473.702257469.8219694294300.837021704334781643315150DRYMH
2023-09-14 20:00:02FORECAST20233506567.49649.7358.613000.051.471.52FF35.496471.496257469.8219694294300.8103726213931643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 16:00:01FORECAST20233506567.69449.62258.658000.051.471.52FF35.694471.694257469.8219694294300.814922351199541643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 12:00:02FORECAST20233506568.52251.45859.99000.051.471.52FF36.522472.522257469.8219694294300.833206255320571643315150DRYMH
2023-09-14 08:00:02FORECAST20233506569.11651.81860.467000.051.471.52FF37.116474.116257469.8219694294300.845580683749051643315150DRYMH
2023-09-14 04:00:05FORECAST20233506567.35253.13260.242000.051.471.52FF35.352470.352257469.8219694294300.807020994551141643315225DRYL
2023-09-14 00:00:02FORECAST20233506566.86651.49459.180001.471.47FF34.866471.866257469.8219694294300.795445371375491643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 20:00:02FORECAST20233506568.07251.8959.9810001.471.47FF36.072475.072257469.8219694294300.823418390710261643315150DRYMH
2023-09-13 16:00:02FORECAST20233506569.00853.45661.2320001.471.47FF37.008476.008257469.8219694294300.84337701438021643315150DRYMH
2023-09-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233506569.31454.51861.9160001.471.47FF37.314477.314257469.8219694294300.849567397499981653315155DRYH
2023-09-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233506568.12653.07860.6020001.471.47FF36.126474.126257469.8219694294300.824611704086911643315150DRYMH
2023-09-13 04:00:06FORECAST20233506567.3751.69259.5310001.471.47FF35.37472.37257469.8219694294300.807441911095581643315225DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:03FORECAST20233506568.79252.17860.4850001.461.46FF36.792472.792257469.8219694294300.838908034977161643315150DRYMH
2023-09-12 20:00:02FORECAST20233506566.79452.3459.5670001.461.46FF34.794467.794257469.8219694294300.793696067398891643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 16:00:02FORECAST20233506568.41452.760.5570001.461.46FF36.414472.414257469.8219694294300.830889617682041643315150DRYMH
2023-09-12 12:00:02FORECAST20233506567.5552.44859.9990001.461.46FF35.55469.55257469.8219694294300.81162021365471643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:03FORECAST20233506568.2753.88861.0790001.461.46FF36.27470.27257469.8219694294300.827768868080471643315150DRYMH
2023-09-12 04:00:05FORECAST20233506565.87650.01857.9470001.461.46FF33.876464.876257469.8219694294300.77062783966871643315225DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:03FORECAST20233506568.61252.66460.6380001.461.46FF36.612467.612257469.8219694294300.835121109456651643315150DRYMH
2023-09-11 20:00:02FORECAST20233506568.12652.8860.5030001.461.46FF36.126463.126257469.8219694294300.824611704086911643315150DRYMH
2023-09-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233506567.9152.75460.3320001.461.46FF35.91461.91257469.8219694294300.819807808360021643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233506566.5651.29658.9280001.461.46FF34.56461.56257469.8219694294300.787950049081551643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:03FORECAST20233506567.5552.73660.1430001.461.46FF35.55463.55257469.8219694294300.81162021365471643315225DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:05FORECAST20233506568.55852.3460.4490001.461.46FF36.558469.558257469.8219694294300.833973907696161643315150DRYMH
2023-09-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233506568.10852.35860.2330001.461.46FF36.108464.108257469.8219694294300.82421450089931643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20233506568.41451.74660.080001.461.46FF36.414462.414257469.8219694294300.830889617682041643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233506568.12653.54660.8360001.461.46FF36.126458.126257469.8219694294300.824611704086911643315150DRYMH
2023-09-10 12:00:03FORECAST20233506567.47851.99859.7380001.461.46FF35.478452.478257469.8219694294300.809955632872761643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233506567.13650.37858.7570001.461.46FF35.136453.136257469.8219694294300.80192637450821643315225DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233506569.29652.80861.0520001.461.46FF37.296466.296257469.8219694294300.849207820720271653315155DRYH
2023-09-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233506569.22452.53860.8810001.461.46FF37.224461.224257469.8219694294300.847763811040491643315150DRYMH
2023-09-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233506569.5351.65660.5930001.461.46FF37.53463.53257469.8219694294300.853837865900771653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233506569.8951.60260.7460001.461.46FF37.89460.89257469.8219694294300.860773240221011653315155DRYH
2023-09-09 12:00:03FORECAST20233506567.80250.70259.2520001.461.46FF35.802452.802257469.8219694294300.817375257599251643315225DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233506568.19851.00859.6030001.461.46FF36.198455.198257469.8219694294300.826194834609191643315150DRYMH
2023-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20233506567.42452.55659.990001.491.49FF35.424458.424257469.8219694294300.808701297160291643315225DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:05FORECAST20233506567.92848.99258.460001.481.48FF35.928458.928257469.8219694294300.820211251908361643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:03FORECAST20233506566.41647.44456.930001.461.46FF34.416452.416257469.8219694294300.784368087337951643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:04FORECAST20233506561.8846.36454.1220001.461.46FF29.88450.88257469.8219694294300.655321205994091633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233506557.03844.0650.5490001.461.46FF25.038447.038257469.8219694294300.494553561656671623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233506556.58842.7149.6490001.461.46FF24.588446.588257469.8219694294300.479236209541181623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:06FORECAST20233506566.18251.31458.7480001.461.46FF34.182452.182257469.8219694294300.778473335098641643315225DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233506567.0152.19659.6030001.461.46FF35.01451.01257469.8219694294300.798917442029841643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233506569.3552.1660.7550001.461.46FF37.35462.35257469.8219694294300.850284840673971653315155DRYH
2023-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233506567.8252.37660.0980001.461.46FF35.82446.82257469.8219694294300.817782097321221643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:07FORECAST20233506568.79252.21460.5030001.461.46FF36.792456.792257469.8219694294300.838908034977161643315150DRYMH
2023-09-07 08:00:06FORECAST20233506566.4749.47857.9740001.461.46FF34.47444.47257469.8219694294300.785715408657711643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:07FORECAST20233506564.27448.36256.3180001.461.46FF32.274439.274257469.8219694294300.727119213877461643315225DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:06FORECAST20233506558.0144.25851.1340001.461.46FF26.01433.01257469.8219694294300.527636633904781633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233506557.242.31449.7570001.461.46FF25.2435.2257469.8219694294300.500070956325141633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233506555.00440.56847.7860001.461.46FF23.004439.004257469.8219694294300.425711909978791623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:05FORECAST20233506562.85247.10254.9770001.461.46FF30.852437.852257469.8219694294300.685350180490481633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20233506562.79847.08454.9410001.461.46FF30.798436.798257469.8219694294300.683711360878321633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:07FORECAST20233506565.60646.88656.2460001.461.46FF33.606444.606257469.8219694294300.763578121215741643315225DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:05FORECAST20233506556.26447.351.7820001.451.45FF24.264454.264257469.8219694294300.468225367635311623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:05FORECAST20233506556.62446.14851.3860001.451.45FF24.624459.624257469.8219694294300.480460769807771623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:04FORECAST20233506552.03442.92647.480001.451.45FF20.034443.034257469.8219694294300.329655752648471623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233506549.49646.11247.8040001.451.45FF17.496438.496257469.8219694294300.255410339775871623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:04FORECAST20233506552.93450.23451.5840001.451.45FF20.934433.934257469.8219694294300.357919287733691623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:07FORECAST20233506551.8950.4551.170001.451.45FF19.89457.89257469.8219694294300.325217434137551623315220DRYL