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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, September 12, 2023

[ Monday, September 11, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, September 13, 2023 ]

DAY 347 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/13/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 57.04°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.37°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 49.70°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.428
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 25
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 509

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.01 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.01 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.46 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.47 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 254
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 468.35 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 62

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-13 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233476257.0399842.3699849.7049800.0100000000001050.0100000000001051.461.4700000000001FF25.03998509.03998254468.35352565462 00.4276305944329216 23415222.5DRYL
2023-09-13 00:00:02FORECAST20233476253.3341.1847.2550001.461.46FF21.33505.33255468.8448681152100.297611222230831623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 12:00:01FORECAST20233476253.52840.74847.1380001.461.46FF21.528505.528255468.8448681152100.304093439927521623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 08:00:02FORECAST20233476252.95241.43247.1920001.461.46FF20.952504.952255468.8448681152100.285414414779321623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 04:00:04FORECAST20233476252.41240.02846.220001.461.46FF20.412504.412255468.8448681152100.268414445481991623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20233476253.97840.69447.3360001.461.46FF21.978502.978254468.3535256546200.319054086192181623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 20:00:01FORECAST20233476252.35840.74846.5530001.461.46FF20.358500.358254468.3535256546200.266742840099351623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 16:00:02FORECAST20233476252.08840.06446.0760001.461.46FF20.088500.088254468.3535256546200.25846439548631623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:02FORECAST20233476252.91640.85646.8860001.461.46FF20.916500.916254468.3535256546200.284265326167531623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:02FORECAST20233476253.8741.9947.930001.461.46FF21.87501.87254468.3535256546200.315435338738091623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20233476255.36443.26849.3160001.461.46FF23.364504.364254468.3535256546200.366924352052081623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233476254.7743.48449.1270001.461.46FF22.77499.77254468.3535256546200.346101274384641623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:03FORECAST20233476254.93242.96248.9470001.461.46FF22.932497.932254468.3535256546200.351737457866881623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20233476253.74442.9848.3620001.461.46FF21.744495.744254468.3535256546200.311235733931931623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20233476253.13240.89247.0120001.461.46FF21.132494.132254468.3535256546200.291192750147771623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20233476253.0640.15446.6070001.461.46FF21.06495.06254468.3535256546200.288874873697691623315220DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:08FORECAST20233476254.55442.49448.5240001.461.46FF22.554500.554254468.3535256546200.338639234266861623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20233476255.6742.7149.190001.461.46FF23.67495.67254468.3535256546200.377810781034741623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20233476255.50841.59448.5510001.461.46FF23.508496.508254468.3535256546200.372034666601351623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233476255.11242.22448.6680001.461.46FF23.112494.112254468.3535256546200.35803825545961623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20233476253.04241.48647.2640001.461.46FF21.042492.042254468.3535256546200.288296762825961623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20233476254.15842.1748.1640001.461.46FF22.158494.158254468.3535256546200.325123662868731623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:06FORECAST20233476255.47242.11648.794000.031.461.49FF23.472496.472254468.3535256546200.370754933494521623315220DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:04FORECAST20233476254.91441.21648.065000.021.461.48FF22.914493.914254468.3535256546200.351109577081781623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20233476254.03241.7247.8760001.461.46FF22.032491.032254468.3535256546200.320869970873441623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20233476256.82243.93450.3780001.461.46FF24.822494.822254468.3535256546200.419603710610741623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233476256.08444.7850.4320001.461.46FF24.084496.084254468.3535256546200.392693748227121623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233476256.06643.59249.8290001.461.46FF24.066497.066254468.3535256546200.392043214181741623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20233476256.2142.99849.6040001.461.46FF24.21492.21254468.3535256546200.397255784796931623315220DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233476257.50642.92650.2160001.461.46FF25.506490.506254468.3535256546200.444887952339161623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233476258.65842.72850.6930001.461.46FF26.658494.658254468.3535256546200.487929811918391623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233476257.79441.5449.6670001.461.46FF25.794485.794254468.3535256546200.455607613530771623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:06FORECAST20233476257.57843.750.6390001.461.46FF25.578492.578254468.3535256546200.447564404149481623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20233476256.37241.86449.1180001.461.46FF24.372487.372254468.3535256546200.403141889566661623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:06FORECAST20233476255.47242.92649.1990001.461.46FF23.472486.472254468.3535256546200.370754933494521623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:05FORECAST20233476256.19242.09849.1450001.461.46FF24.192482.192254468.3535256546200.396603188312971623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20233476257.2943.64650.4680001.461.46FF25.29485.29254468.3535256546200.436874136586471623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233476256.69642.7149.7030001.461.46FF24.696490.696254468.3535256546200.414978878446511623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233476256.37242.40449.3880001.461.46FF24.372480.372254468.3535256546200.403141889566661623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20233476256.13841.82848.9830001.461.46FF24.138479.138254468.3535256546200.394647142401751623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233476257.00241.7249.3610001.461.46FF25.002482.002254468.3535256546200.426229766314981623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233476261.53844.45652.9970001.451.45FF29.538496.538254468.3535256546200.595051628912311633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:04FORECAST20233476262.27645.28453.780001.451.45FF30.276503.276254468.3535256546200.62170318968281633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233476259.39646.3152.8530001.451.45FF27.396496.396254468.3535256546200.515609547864041633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233476262.4247.44454.9320001.451.45FF30.42498.42254468.3535256546200.626840989727691633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233476261.26848.95655.1120001.451.45FF29.268489.268254468.3535256546200.585182562990651633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:06FORECAST20233476265.51649.53257.5240001.451.45FF33.516504.516254468.3535256546200.730605047081031643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233476264.36448.07456.219000.091.241.33FF32.364499.364254468.3535256546200.693679265293711633415225DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:03FORECAST20233476262.09646.79654.446000.151.251.4FF30.096493.096254468.3535256546200.615250663024841633325245DRYM
2023-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20233476256.2141.68448.9470001.241.24FF24.21478.21254468.3535256546200.397255784796931623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:04FORECAST20233476259.8145.08652.448000.011.241.25FF27.81488.81254468.3535256546200.531112852406241633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:04FORECAST20233476257.90244.7851.341000.021.241.26FF25.902484.902254468.3535256546200.45963626181871623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:06FORECAST20233476265.35450.57657.965000.061.241.3FF33.354500.354254468.3535256546200.725549749764421643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:12FORECAST20233476261.95245.5953.771000.091.231.32FF29.952480.952254468.3535256546200.610065468011781633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:09FORECAST20233476262.49242.9852.73600.149606380.169606381.21.36960638FF30.492481.492254468.3535256546200.629401524213011633325245DRYM
2023-09-03 16:00:04FORECAST20233476262.49242.9852.73600.149606380.169606381.21.36960638FF30.492481.492254468.3535256546200.629401524213011633325245DRYM
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233476261.4342.27851.85400.413386050.473386051.191.66338605FF29.43482.43254468.3535256546200.591110876703661633325245DRYM
2023-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20233476260.29641.95451.12500.437008110.477008111.161.63700811FF28.296486.296254468.3535256546200.549250643128641633325245DRYM
2023-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20233476262.25844.99653.627000.051.151.2FF30.258495.258254468.3535256546200.621059428341631633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233476250.10844.27647.1920001.21.2FF18.108463.108254468.3535256546200.202049352049591613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233476251.27844.25847.7680001.211.21FF19.278472.278254468.3535256546200.234450211735061613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:05FORECAST20233476247.98445.06846.5260001.131.13FF15.984472.984254468.3535256546200.150527747651141613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:05FORECAST20233476250.1845.7747.9750001.121.12FF18.18486.18254468.3535256546200.203962580256581613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:04FORECAST20233476250.1845.7747.9750001.121.12FF18.18487.18254468.3535256546200.203962580256581613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:08FORECAST20233476253.07850.21651.6470001.121.12FF21.078490.078254468.3535256546200.289453529010441623315220DRYL