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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, September 11, 2023

[ Sunday, September 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, September 12, 2023 ]

DAY 346 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/12/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 59.12°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.61°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.87°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.450
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 27
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 521

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 253
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.86 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 61

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-12 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233466159.1200646.6100652.865060001.691.69FF27.12006521.12006253467.86031254069 00.4496995810590216 23415222.5DRYL
2023-09-12 00:00:02FORECAST20233466155.74245.30250.5220001.691.69FF23.742517.742254468.3535256546200.338628412443321623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 12:00:01FORECAST20233466154.62644.63649.6310001.691.69FF22.626516.626254468.3535256546200.304343191712191623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 08:00:01FORECAST20233466155.14845.51850.3330001.691.69FF23.148517.148254468.3535256546200.320190065063131623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 04:00:04FORECAST20233466156.04845.66250.85500.003937010.003937011.691.69393701FF24.048518.048254468.3535256546200.348283613140231623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233466156.13844.7850.4590001.691.69FF24.138514.138253467.8603125406900.351142527073441623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 20:00:02FORECAST20233466156.28245.6850.9810001.691.69FF24.282512.282253467.8603125406900.35573429433941623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 16:00:01FORECAST20233466155.445.28450.3420001.691.69FF23.4511.4253467.8603125406900.32796163020441623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20233466153.65444.11448.8840001.691.69FF21.654509.654253467.8603125406900.27580828572581623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20233466153.88843.73648.8120001.691.69FF21.888510.888253467.8603125406900.282556477745021623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:07FORECAST20233466155.63445.46450.5490001.691.69FF23.634514.634253467.8603125406900.335245446650591623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20233466155.83245.35650.5940001.691.69FF23.832508.832253467.8603125406900.341457538928331623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:03FORECAST20233466155.83245.26650.5490001.691.69FF23.832509.832253467.8603125406900.341457538928331623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20233466154.98644.9649.9730001.691.69FF22.986507.986253467.8603125406900.315235087891831623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20233466155.18444.99650.090001.691.69FF23.184508.184253467.8603125406900.32129557707931623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20233466156.06645.60850.8370001.691.69FF24.066509.066253467.8603125406900.34885471335051623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20233466157.21845.96851.59300.027559070.027559071.691.71755907FF25.218510.218253467.8603125406900.386065401328291623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:04FORECAST20233466156.85845.60851.23300.019685050.019685051.691.70968505FF24.858507.858253467.8603125406900.374305401510421623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20233466156.10245.91451.0080001.691.69FF24.102506.102253467.8603125406900.349997939951081623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:03FORECAST20233466157.43446.45451.9440001.691.69FF25.434507.434253467.8603125406900.393172753516561623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20233466159.1846.77852.9790001.691.69FF27.18509.18253467.8603125406900.451735247656891623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20233466159.7245.96852.8440001.691.69FF27.72509.72253467.8603125406900.470125425932841623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20233466157.68645.73451.710001.691.69FF25.686504.686253467.8603125406900.401509722100781623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233466156.26445.96851.1160001.691.69FF24.264502.264253467.8603125406900.35515916158971623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233466157.34445.60851.4760001.691.69FF25.344505.344253467.8603125406900.390206879180191623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233466155.29244.16849.730001.691.69FF23.292497.292253467.8603125406900.324621586352621623315220DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:06FORECAST20233466156.78644.79850.7920001.691.69FF24.786503.786253467.8603125406900.371966973435831623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20233466156.19244.18650.1890001.691.69FF24.192500.192253467.8603125406900.352861938393631623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20233466158.35245.33851.8450001.691.69FF26.352500.352253467.8603125406900.423750318040391623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:04FORECAST20233466157.241.9949.5950001.691.69FF25.2495.2253467.8603125406900.385474807572851623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:04FORECAST20233466157.09243.91650.5040001.691.69FF25.092497.092253467.8603125406900.381936862507331623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20233466159.4542.09850.7740001.691.69FF27.45503.45253467.8603125406900.460919889431331623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233466154.15841.91848.0380001.691.69FF22.158493.158253467.8603125406900.290440023138411623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:04FORECAST20233466154.21241.0947.6510001.691.69FF22.212492.212253467.8603125406900.292028989664361623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233466155.79643.5249.6580001.691.69FF23.796493.796253467.8603125406900.340324808715231623315220DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233466157.93845.71651.8270001.681.68FF25.938503.938253467.8603125406900.409891755923541623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20233466157.57846.63452.1060001.681.68FF25.578509.578253467.8603125406900.397931004289481623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233466160.51246.05853.2850001.681.68FF28.512505.512253467.8603125406900.497202273619171623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233466164.07644.34854.2120001.681.68FF32.076505.076253467.8603125406900.617425060993551633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233466160.38646.23853.3120001.681.68FF28.386497.386253467.8603125406900.49289049965641623315220DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:06FORECAST20233466164.00446.47255.2380001.681.68FF32.004508.004253467.8603125406900.61506633695851633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233466167.1944.3355.76000.091.471.56FF35.19504.19253467.8603125406900.714258711814451643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233466165.42644.27654.851000.151.481.63FF33.426500.426253467.8603125406900.660759375146591633425250DRYMH
2023-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20233466155.8537.99446.9220001.471.47FF23.85490.85253467.8603125406900.342024440483661623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:04FORECAST20233466160.45846.27453.366000.011.471.48FF28.458498.458253467.8603125406900.49535430109751623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233466158.35244.47451.413000.021.471.49FF26.352496.352253467.8603125406900.423750318040391623315220DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20233466163.3242.13452.727000.061.471.53FF31.32504.32253467.8603125406900.592457545897821633415225DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:12FORECAST20233466158.1938.78648.488000.091.461.55FF26.19488.19253467.8603125406900.418315163747641623315220DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:09FORECAST20233466157.05638.67847.867000.021.431.45FF25.056488.056253467.8603125406900.380759718223341623315220DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233466157.05638.67847.867000.021.431.45FF25.056488.056253467.8603125406900.380759718223341623315220DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233466156.31839.48847.903000.061.421.48FF24.318490.318253467.8603125406900.35688554391891623315220DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20233466155.63438.08446.859000.041.391.43FF23.634494.634253467.8603125406900.335245446650591623315220DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20233466160.87244.43852.655000.051.381.43FF28.872501.872253467.8603125406900.509521710445031633415225DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233466162.1545.06853.6090001.431.43FF30.15482.15253467.8603125406900.553102123437761633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233466164.3146.59855.4540001.441.44FF32.31490.31253467.8603125406900.625060473821411633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:05FORECAST20233466163.01445.64454.3290001.361.36FF31.014494.014253467.8603125406900.582237561057211633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:05FORECAST20233466163.9547.89455.9220001.351.35FF31.95504.95253467.8603125406900.61329449081561633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:04FORECAST20233466163.64446.92255.2830001.351.35FF31.644505.644253467.8603125406900.603210405830321633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233466165.96645.26655.6160001.351.35FF33.966505.966253467.8603125406900.677551163226031633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:04FORECAST20233466150.66647.08448.8750001.471.47FF18.666480.666253467.8603125406900.197182714940251613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233466150.37846.448.3890001.421.42FF18.378478.378253467.8603125406900.190394229087331613315217.5DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20233466158.6448.45253.5460001.371.37FF26.64491.64253467.8603125406900.433448072741471623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233466157.75856.26457.0110001.351.35FF25.758502.758253467.8603125406900.403900150712821623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:04FORECAST20233466157.7456.26457.0020001.391.39FF25.74495.74253467.8603125406900.403302203310591623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:06FORECAST20233466141.3638.55239.9560001.381.38FF9.36469.36253467.8603125406900.0493262906248381613315217.5DRYL