MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, September 10, 2023

[ Saturday, September 9, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, September 11, 2023 ]

DAY 345 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/11/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.79°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.14°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.789
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 531

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.69 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.69 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 252
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 467.37 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 60

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-11 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233456067.4799850.7900259.1350001.691.69FF35.47998531.47998252467.36522165142 00.7888524473982116 43415227.5DRYL
2023-09-11 00:00:02FORECAST20233456063.2349.24456.2370001.691.69FF31.23527.23253467.8603125406900.647745174905641633415225DRYL
2023-09-10 12:00:02FORECAST20233456061.10647.3954.2480001.691.69FF29.106525.106253467.8603125406900.566614784617661633415225DRYL
2023-09-10 08:00:02FORECAST20233456061.8847.98454.9320001.691.69FF29.88525.88253467.8603125406900.596704303930121633415225DRYL
2023-09-10 04:00:07FORECAST20233456063.75249.89256.8220001.691.69FF31.752527.752253467.8603125406900.666843732898351633415225DRYL
2023-09-10 00:00:02FORECAST20233456063.7750.41457.0920001.691.69FF31.77521.77252467.3652216514200.6674949987921633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 20:00:02FORECAST20233456064.0449.3756.7050001.691.69FF32.04523.04252467.3652216514200.677202462043661633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 16:00:02FORECAST20233456063.21249.5556.3810001.691.69FF31.212522.212252467.3652216514200.647079572420041633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 12:00:02FORECAST20233456062.70849.17255.940001.691.69FF30.708521.708252467.3652216514200.628266727437771633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 08:00:02FORECAST20233456062.97849.78456.3810001.691.69FF30.978521.978252467.3652216514200.638386445708571633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 04:00:05FORECAST20233456063.19450.03656.6150001.691.69FF31.194522.194252467.3652216514200.646413519760591633415225DRYL
2023-09-09 00:00:03FORECAST20233456063.2349.80256.5160001.691.69FF31.23520.23252467.3652216514200.647745174905641633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 20:00:02FORECAST20233456062.61850.05456.3360001.691.69FF30.618518.618252467.3652216514200.624873300713961633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 16:00:02FORECAST20233456062.8748.93855.9040001.691.69FF30.87518.87252467.3652216514200.634349701897141633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 12:00:02FORECAST20233456062.79850.07256.4350001.691.69FF30.798518.798252467.3652216514200.631650221114771633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 08:00:03FORECAST20233456062.8749.51456.1920001.691.69FF30.87518.87252467.3652216514200.634349701897141633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 04:00:05FORECAST20233456061.84449.5555.6970001.691.69FF29.844515.844252467.3652216514200.595315965326321633415225DRYL
2023-09-08 00:00:03FORECAST20233456062.63648.93855.7870001.691.69FF30.636514.636252467.3652216514200.625552769032261633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 20:00:02FORECAST20233456062.63649.1955.9130001.691.69FF30.636516.636252467.3652216514200.625552769032261633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 16:00:02FORECAST20233456060.94447.53454.2390001.691.69FF28.944510.944252467.3652216514200.560261617422311633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 12:00:05FORECAST20233456062.13248.25455.1930001.691.69FF30.132516.132252467.3652216514200.606387650371381633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 08:00:04FORECAST20233456061.01647.91254.4640001.691.69FF29.016513.016252467.3652216514200.563087263742461633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 04:00:05FORECAST20233456060.49448.30854.4010001.691.69FF28.494511.494252467.3652216514200.542537362100611633415225DRYL
2023-09-07 00:00:04FORECAST20233456059.61246.41853.0150001.691.69FF27.612506.612252467.3652216514200.507584117610391633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 20:00:03FORECAST20233456060.00848.07454.0410001.691.69FF28.008509.008252467.3652216514200.523300731833471633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 16:00:03FORECAST20233456061.37646.54453.960001.691.69FF29.376513.376252467.3652216514200.577164461349851633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 12:00:03FORECAST20233456060.78246.99453.8880001.691.69FF28.782507.782252467.3652216514200.553892894555771633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 08:00:03FORECAST20233456060.29646.05853.1770001.691.69FF28.296507.296252467.3652216514200.5347096674211633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233456060.27847.31853.7980001.691.69FF28.278507.278252467.3652216514200.533997346282071633415225DRYL
2023-09-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233456062.02449.51455.7690001.681.68FF30.024515.024252467.3652216514200.602245316160791633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 20:00:03FORECAST20233456063.17649.94656.5610001.681.68FF31.176521.176252467.3652216514200.645747018760561633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 16:00:03FORECAST20233456061.26848.61454.9410001.681.68FF29.268514.268252467.3652216514200.572950786040731633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233456060.13446.47253.3030001.681.68FF28.134510.134252467.3652216514200.528295046726821633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233456059.30646.65252.9790001.681.68FF27.306506.306252467.3652216514200.495430122043481623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-05 04:00:06FORECAST20233456060.58446.88653.7350001.681.68FF28.584512.584252467.3652216514200.546090142073411633415225DRYL
2023-09-05 00:00:04FORECAST20233456055.25645.17650.21600.090551230.090551231.471.56055123FF23.256506.256252467.3652216514200.339182045856251623425245DRYM
2023-09-04 20:00:02FORECAST20233456054.53644.649.56800.145669370.145669371.481.62566937FF22.536503.536252467.3652216514200.313346695624441623425245DRYM
2023-09-04 16:00:04FORECAST20233456055.41845.30250.360001.471.47FF23.418504.418252467.3652216514200.345106311284111623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 12:00:04FORECAST20233456057.7446.452.0700.011811030.011811031.471.48181103FF25.74506.74252467.3652216514200.433537760631391623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233456057.03845.03251.03500.019685050.019685051.471.48968505FF25.038507.038252467.3652216514200.406223975573111623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 04:00:05FORECAST20233456053.13243.91648.52400.055118140.055118141.471.52511814FF21.132510.132252467.3652216514200.26559582466351623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-04 00:00:11FORECAST20233456049.9141.12645.51800.094488240.094488241.461.55448824FF17.91498.91252467.3652216514200.171795154319171613325235DRYL
2023-09-03 20:00:08FORECAST20233456049.92840.71245.3200.023622060.023622061.431.45362206FF17.928499.928252467.3652216514200.172252398788781613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 16:00:03FORECAST20233456049.92840.71245.3200.023622060.023622061.431.45362206FF17.928499.928252467.3652216514200.172252398788781613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233456051.51241.0946.30100.062992160.062992161.421.48299216FF19.512502.512252467.3652216514200.215489166256821613415220DRYL
2023-09-03 08:00:04FORECAST20233456053.40240.26246.83200.043307110.043307111.391.43330711FF21.402508.402252467.3652216514200.274485740792981623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 04:00:05FORECAST20233456058.31643.05250.68400.051181130.051181131.381.43118113FF26.316510.316252467.3652216514200.45619486692661623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233456056.96640.26248.6140001.431.43FF24.966488.966252467.3652216514200.403445838009031623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233456058.56841.432500001.441.44FF26.568494.568252467.3652216514200.466156796096191623315220DRYL
2023-09-02 16:00:04FORECAST20233456058.7342.11650.4230001.361.36FF26.73499.73252467.3652216514200.472572506986591623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233456062.00645.46453.7350001.351.35FF30.006510.006252467.3652216514200.601553791456331633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233456061.86244.653.2310001.351.35FF29.862510.862252467.3652216514200.596010285770541633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233456062.1544.0653.1050001.351.35FF30.15509.15252467.3652216514200.607076884504111633415225DRYL
2023-09-02 00:00:04FORECAST20233456058.42439.99249.2080001.471.47FF26.424499.424252467.3652216514200.460461263725891623415222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233456058.38839.32648.8570001.421.42FF26.388497.388252467.3652216514200.45903860105951623315220DRYL
2023-09-01 16:00:04FORECAST20233456059.52243.77251.6470001.371.37FF27.522501.522252467.3652216514200.50400963862841633415225DRYL
2023-09-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233456066.2945.5955.940001.351.35FF34.29514.29252467.3652216514200.752991754187481643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-01 08:00:04FORECAST20233456066.39844.25855.3280001.391.39FF34.398507.398252467.3652216514200.756375100954241643415227.5DRYL
2023-09-01 04:00:06FORECAST20233456060.56639.39849.9820001.381.38FF28.566496.566252467.3652216514200.545379871807631633315222.5DRYL
2023-09-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233456040.58636.33838.4620001.21.2FF8.586480.586252467.3652216514200.0302104606720341613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233456046.54437.99442.269000.251.171.42FF14.544491.544252467.3652216514200.0998150665558991613325235DRYL
2023-08-31 16:00:04FORECAST20233456036.9534.6135.7800.098425250.208425251.341.54842525FF4.95473.95252467.3652216514200.0124881858367291613325235DRYL
2023-08-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233456043.6140.3741.990001.461.46FF11.61489.61252467.3652216514200.0575783262066461613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-31 08:00:04FORECAST20233456045.26641.5443.4030001.461.46FF13.266481.266252467.3652216514200.0792542949108811613315217.5DRYL
2023-08-31 04:00:07FORECAST20233456052.46650.95451.710001.691.69FF20.466483.466252467.3652216514200.244308776110111613315217.5DRYL