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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, September 1, 2023

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DAY 336 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/02/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 60.00°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 44.87°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 52.44°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.520 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 28 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 607 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.87 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.48 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 1.35 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 243 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.82 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 51 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 3 D₂: 5 D₃: 3 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 82.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-02 04:00:04	OBSERVATION	2023	336	51	60.00008	44.87	52.43504	0	0.87	0.48	1.35	F	F	28.00008	607.00008	243	462.82371512226	0.51986572812501	16	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2023-09-02 00:00:01	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.416	42.386	49.901	0	0.87	0.48	1.35	F	F	25.416	604.416	244	463.33603098816	0.42454537116564	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-09-01 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.064	41.648	49.856	0	0.87	0.48	1.35	F	F	26.064	605.064	244	463.33603098816	0.44825517393219	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-09-01 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.758	41.954	49.856	0	0.87	0.48	1.35	F	F	25.758	604.758	244	463.33603098816	0.4370304865611	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-09-01 04:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.434	41.684	49.559	0	0.87	0.48	1.35	F	F	25.434	604.434	244	463.33603098816	0.42520071253716	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-09-01 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.496	41.684	50.09	0	0.53	0.48	1.01	F	F	26.496	606.496	243	462.82371512226	0.46417048481564	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-31 20:00:01	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.136	41.756	49.946	0	0.45	0.48	0.93	F	F	26.136	605.136	243	462.82371512226	0.45090265101319	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-31 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.082	42.098	50.09	0	0.45	0.48	0.93	F	F	26.082	605.082	243	462.82371512226	0.44891683188881	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-31 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.632	43.052	50.342	0	0.45	0.48	0.93	F	F	25.632	604.632	243	462.82371512226	0.43242272133777	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-31 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.362	41.738	49.55	0	0.46	0.48	0.94	F	F	25.362	603.362	243	462.82371512226	0.42258060503167	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-31 04:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.804	40.892	48.848	0	0.55	0.48	1.03	F	F	24.804	601.804	243	462.82371512226	0.40239926846498	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-31 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.93	41.486	49.208	0	0.28	0.48	0.76	F	F	24.93	607.93	243	462.82371512226	0.40693570640921	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-30 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.784	43.772	51.278	0	0.25	0.48	0.73	F	F	26.784	611.784	243	462.82371512226	0.47481423662421	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-30 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.336	41.522	48.929	0.00787402	0.67787402	0.48	1.15787402	F	F	24.336	608.336	243	462.82371512226	0.38566893589172	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-30 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.426	43.502	49.964	0.00787402	0.65787402	0.48	1.13787402	F	F	24.426	609.426	243	462.82371512226	0.38887088769335	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-30 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.662	41.738	48.2	0.03543309	0.71543309	0.48	1.19543309	F	F	22.662	603.662	243	462.82371512226	0.32773902751201	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-30 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.446	41.468	47.957	0.04724412	0.87724412	0.48	1.35724412	F	F	22.446	603.446	243	462.82371512226	0.32052362524773	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-30 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	57.056	42.566	49.811	0	0.6	0.38	0.98	F	F	25.056	607.056	243	462.82371512226	0.41148466241913	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-29 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.804	40.658	48.731	0	0.49	0.27	0.76	F	F	24.804	603.804	243	462.82371512226	0.40239926846498	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-29 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.922	40.406	48.164	0	0.52	0.27	0.79	F	F	23.922	601.922	243	462.82371512226	0.37104316395442	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-29 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.238	40.766	48.002	0.07086618	0.87086618	0.34	1.21086618	F	F	23.238	605.238	243	462.82371512226	0.34729068522259	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-29 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.284	41.198	47.741	0.00787402	0.56787402	0.25	0.81787402	F	F	22.284	602.284	243	462.82371512226	0.31515601695808	16	2	3	5	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-29 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.562	42.08	48.821	0	0.37	0.3	0.67	F	F	23.562	597.562	243	462.82371512226	0.35847390200826	16	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-08-28 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	56.03	41.792	48.911	0	0.24	0.35	0.59	F	F	24.03	599.03	243	462.82371512226	0.37484163292163	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-28 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	52.988	41.54	47.264	0	0.25	0.51	0.76	F	F	20.988	591.988	243	462.82371512226	0.27368267790444	16	2	3	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-08-28 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.256	42.89	49.073	0	0.73	0.6	1.33	F	F	23.256	598.256	243	462.82371512226	0.34790860827719	16	2	3	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2023-08-28 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.212	42.152	48.182	0.18503947	1.04503947	0.51	1.55503947	F	F	22.212	599.212	243	462.82371512226	0.31278278481445	16	2	3	5	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-08-28 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.212	42.152	48.182	0.18503947	1.04503947	0.51	1.55503947	F	F	22.212	599.212	243	462.82371512226	0.31278278481445	16	2	3	5	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-08-28 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.212	42.152	48.182	0.18503947	1.04503947	0.51	1.55503947	F	F	22.212	596.212	243	462.82371512226	0.31278278481445	16	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-08-27 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.212	42.152	48.182	0.18503947	1.04503947	0.51	1.55503947	F	F	22.212	597.212	243	462.82371512226	0.31278278481445	16	2	3	4	4	5	2	90	DRY	VH
2023-08-27 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	53.474	42.368	47.921	0.14566937	1.05566937	0.51	1.56566937	F	F	21.474	599.474	243	462.82371512226	0.28891664112063	16	2	3	5	4	5	2	100	DRY	VH
2023-08-27 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	54.968	42.458	48.713	0.12204731	0.15204731	0.47	0.62204731	F	F	22.968	603.968	243	462.82371512226	0.33807130037307	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-27 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.652	41.936	48.794	0.12204731	0.17204731	0.47	0.64204731	F	F	23.652	602.652	243	462.82371512226	0.36160249697312	16	2	3	5	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-27 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	336	51	58.154	42.728	50.441	0	0.04	0.38	0.42	F	F	26.154	600.154	243	462.82371512226	0.45156486640015	16	2	3	5	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-08-27 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.436	42.476	48.956	0.04330711	0.07330711	0.31	0.38330711	F	F	23.436	592.436	243	462.82371512226	0.35410981411485	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-26 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.922	41.846	48.884	0.04330711	0.07330711	0.31	0.38330711	F	F	23.922	594.922	243	462.82371512226	0.37104316395442	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-26 16:20:49	FORECAST	2023	336	51	55.256	42.062	48.659	0	0.01	0.31	0.32	F	F	23.256	590.256	243	462.82371512226	0.34790860827719	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-26 12:20:26	FORECAST	2023	336	51	61.7	44.33	53.015	0	0.01	0.63	0.64	F	F	29.7	597.7	243	462.82371512226	0.58229249733758	16	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-08-26 08:20:06	FORECAST	2023	336	51	63.5	46.238	54.869	0	0	0.58	0.58	F	F	31.5	604.5	243	462.82371512226	0.64617233154423	16	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2023-08-26 04:33:37	FORECAST	2023	336	51	62.222	45.77	53.996	0	0.01	0.62	0.63	F	F	30.222	596.222	243	462.82371512226	0.60112595961254	16	3	3	4	1	5	2	25	DRY	L
2023-08-26 00:14:26	FORECAST	2023	336	51	66.11	46.202	56.156	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	34.11	602.11	243	462.82371512226	0.73155583645795	16	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2023-08-25 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	336	51	67.028	46.58	56.804	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	35.028	608.028	243	462.82371512226	0.7589203163969	16	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2023-08-25 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	68.324	47.246	57.785	0	0	0.15	0.15	F	F	36.324	612.324	243	462.82371512226	0.79482666514384	16	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-25 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	68.324	47.822	58.073	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	36.324	608.324	243	462.82371512226	0.79482666514384	16	4	3	5	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-25 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	336	51	64.274	47.696	55.985	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	32.274	604.274	243	462.82371512226	0.67253491372036	16	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2023-08-25 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	67.46	48.65	58.055	0	0	0.08	0.08	F	F	35.46	605.46	243	462.82371512226	0.77125357846989	16	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2023-08-24 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	66.974	48.668	57.821	0	0	0.13	0.13	F	F	34.974	610.974	243	462.82371512226	0.75735367500394	16	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2023-08-24 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	61.43	45.608	53.519	0	0.22	0.21	0.43	F	F	29.43	604.43	243	462.82371512226	0.57247353582361	16	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2023-08-24 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	63.104	45.752	54.428	0	0.26	0.15	0.41	F	F	31.104	610.104	243	462.82371512226	0.63239854523519	16	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2023-08-24 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	61.808	44.87	53.339	0	0.26	0.19	0.45	F	F	29.808	593.808	243	462.82371512226	0.58620612236457	16	3	3	4	2	5	2	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-24 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	336	51	69.152	49.892	59.522	0	0.14	0.13	0.27	F	F	37.152	605.152	243	462.82371512226	0.81600639053971	16	4	3	5	2	5	1	120	DRY	VH
2023-08-24 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	64.598	48.956	56.777	0	0.06	0.14	0.2	F	F	32.598	601.598	243	462.82371512226	0.68332919942411	16	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2023-08-23 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	64.778	47.894	56.336	0	0.08	0.15	0.23	F	F	32.778	610.778	243	462.82371512226	0.68926005456297	16	3	3	5	1	5	2	27.5	DRY	L
2023-08-23 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	63.77	48.056	55.913	0	0.5	0.13	0.63	F	F	31.77	603.77	243	462.82371512226	0.65545635814042	16	3	3	5	3	5	2	82.5	DRY	VH
2023-08-23 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	336	51	64.04	48.974	56.507	0	0.48	0.11	0.59	F	F	32.04	605.04	243	462.82371512226	0.66464772354825	16	3	3	5	2	5	2	55	DRY	H
2023-08-23 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	62.474	47.03	54.752	0	0.51	0.1	0.61	F	F	30.474	598.474	243	462.82371512226	0.61013727679791	16	3	3	4	3	5	2	75	DRY	VH
2023-08-23 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	336	51	65.228	48.92	57.074	0	0.07	0.28	0.35	F	F	33.228	602.228	243	462.82371512226	0.70387130855726	16	4	3	5	1	5	2	30	DRY	L
2023-08-23 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	50.684	47.39	49.037	0	0.05	0.37	0.42	F	F	18.684	588.684	243	462.82371512226	0.2072979452349	16	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-22 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	336	51	49.136	41.306	45.221	0	0.04	0.35	0.39	F	F	17.136	583.136	243	462.82371512226	0.16859460830337	16	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-22 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	49.55	44.6	47.075	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	17.55	585.55	243	462.82371512226	0.17846142038604	16	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-22 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	336	51	42.746	41.144	41.945	0	0.24	0.17	0.41	F	F	10.746	569.746	243	462.82371512226	0.060038131645086	16	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-22 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	336	51	44.024	41.522	42.773	0	0.28	0.19	0.47	F	F	12.024	569.024	243	462.82371512226	0.075588387671633	16	1	3	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-22 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	336	51	48.272	47.462	47.867	0	0	0.22	0.22	F	F	16.272	596.272	243	462.82371512226	0.14915340233358	16	1	3	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L