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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 9, 2023

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DAY 313 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/10/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 58.24°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 47.65°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 52.94°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.253 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 26 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 537 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.12 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.42 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.54 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 220 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 450.49 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 28 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-10 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	313	28	58.24004	47.64992	52.94498	0.060000000000059	0.12000000000006	0.42	0.54000000000006	F	F	26.24004	537.24004	220	450.48677582001	0.25274414271593	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-10 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.012	44.744	50.378	0.01968505	0.07968505	0.42	0.49968505	F	F	24.012	535.012	221	451.04588309528	0.18715388327024	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-09 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.446	44.816	49.631	0.01574804	0.07574804	0.42	0.49574804	F	F	22.446	533.446	221	451.04588309528	0.14803140293378	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-09 08:00:01	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.716	45.068	49.892	0.00787402	0.06787402	0.42	0.48787402	F	F	22.716	533.716	221	451.04588309528	0.1543556168013	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-09 04:00:06	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.806	45.572	50.189	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	22.806	533.806	221	451.04588309528	0.15650270894027	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-09 00:00:07	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.85	45.5	50.675	0.05511814	0.11511814	0.42	0.53511814	F	F	23.85	531.85	220	450.48677582001	0.18283383706514	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-08 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.4	45.428	50.414	0.05511814	0.11511814	0.42	0.53511814	F	F	23.4	531.4	220	450.48677582001	0.17116296597155	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-08 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.32	44.384	49.352	0.05118113	0.11118113	0.42	0.53118113	F	F	22.32	530.32	220	450.48677582001	0.14514013600753	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-08 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.166	45.428	50.297	0.04330711	0.10330711	0.42	0.52330711	F	F	23.166	531.166	220	450.48677582001	0.1652862744607	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-08 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.266	44.69	49.478	0.06299216	0.12299216	0.42	0.54299216	F	F	22.266	529.266	220	450.48677582001	0.14391270113468	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-08 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.084	44.708	50.396	0.02362206	0.08362206	0.42	0.50362206	F	F	24.084	533.084	220	450.48677582001	0.18909395556693	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-08 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.364	44.24	49.802	0.0787402	0.2087402	0.42	0.6287402	F	F	23.364	528.364	220	450.48677582001	0.17025028592818	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-07 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.112	44.42	49.766	0.05118113	0.09118113	0.42	0.51118113	F	F	23.112	529.112	220	450.48677582001	0.16394883297123	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-07 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.084	44.708	50.396	0.02362206	0.06362206	0.42	0.48362206	F	F	24.084	531.084	220	450.48677582001	0.18909395556693	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.418	44.96	50.189	0.01574804	0.05574804	0.42	0.47574804	F	F	23.418	529.418	220	450.48677582001	0.17162047422801	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-07 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	53.33	44.564	48.947	0.16929143	0.27929143	0.42	0.69929143	F	F	21.33	525.33	220	450.48677582001	0.12374438057056	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	53.276	44.15	48.713	0.10629927	0.12629927	0.42	0.54629927	F	F	21.276	525.276	220	450.48677582001	0.12264424957751	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.374	44.168	49.271	0.09842525	0.15842525	0.44	0.59842525	F	F	22.374	525.374	220	450.48677582001	0.14637457686498	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	53.348	44.816	49.082	0.18110246	0.28110246	0.48	0.76110246	F	F	21.348	526.348	220	450.48677582001	0.12411261688169	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-06 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	53.6	43.898	48.749	0.13385834	0.15385834	0.48	0.63385834	F	F	21.6	526.6	220	450.48677582001	0.1293482791433	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.912	44.024	50.468	0.03149608	0.05149608	0.48	0.53149608	F	F	24.912	530.912	220	450.48677582001	0.21228283540588	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.284	45.338	49.811	0	0.24	0.49	0.73	F	F	22.284	523.284	220	450.48677582001	0.14432106790749	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.21	43.484	49.847	0.03149608	0.05149608	0.51	0.56149608	F	F	24.21	528.21	220	450.48677582001	0.1925186874565	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-06 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.284	45.338	49.811	0	0.24	0.56	0.8	F	F	22.284	520.284	220	450.48677582001	0.14432106790749	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-05 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.05	44.492	49.271	0.00787402	0.27787402	0.5	0.77787402	F	F	22.05	522.05	220	450.48677582001	0.13907292973141	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.382	44.906	50.144	0.01968505	0.28968505	0.56	0.84968505	F	F	23.382	523.382	220	450.48677582001	0.17070623649018	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.464	43.502	48.983	0.00787402	0.04787402	0.67	0.71787402	F	F	22.464	521.464	220	450.48677582001	0.14844755763339	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	52.916	43.898	48.407	0.00787402	0.06787402	0.72	0.78787402	F	F	20.916	516.916	220	450.48677582001	0.11548475905612	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.59	42.854	48.722	0.02362206	0.06362206	0.93	0.99362206	F	F	22.59	520.59	220	450.48677582001	0.15138247285808	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.968	43.574	49.271	0.05118113	0.27118113	0.91	1.18118113	F	F	22.968	512.968	220	450.48677582001	0.16041666633179	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	313	28	52.898	43.844	48.371	0.07480319	0.25480319	0.74	0.99480319	F	F	20.898	507.898	220	450.48677582001	0.11513472339782	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	52.106	43.196	47.651	0.09842525	0.38842525	0.64	1.02842525	F	F	20.106	506.106	220	450.48677582001	0.10047077264087	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.5	43.34	48.92	0.17322844	0.36322844	0.46	0.82322844	F	F	22.5	510.5	220	450.48677582001	0.14928220568617	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.562	44.258	49.91	0.26377967	0.37377967	0.49	0.86377967	F	F	23.562	522.562	220	450.48677582001	0.17530855713303	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.148	43.862	49.505	0.23228359	0.33228359	0.48	0.81228359	F	F	23.148	518.148	220	450.48677582001	0.1648396802859	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.13	44.906	50.018	0.12204731	0.36204731	0.36	0.72204731	F	F	23.13	528.13	220	450.48677582001	0.16439386643219	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	54.698	44.744	49.721	0	0.04	0.37	0.41	F	F	22.698	524.698	220	450.48677582001	0.15392854046407	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	58.766	44.708	51.737	0	0.28	0.47	0.75	F	F	26.766	535.766	220	450.48677582001	0.26982213774314	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.742	44.78	50.261	0	0.22	0.35	0.57	F	F	23.742	525.742	220	450.48677582001	0.17998859733667	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	313	28	55.994	43.934	49.964	0	0.2	0.36	0.56	F	F	23.994	527.994	220	450.48677582001	0.18667079110871	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-03 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	58.766	44.708	51.737	0	0.28	0.47	0.75	F	F	26.766	537.766	220	450.48677582001	0.26982213774314	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.846	45.086	52.466	0	0.28	0.51	0.79	F	F	27.846	535.846	220	450.48677582001	0.30660513861532	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.306	44.816	52.061	0	0.34	0.46	0.8	F	F	27.306	535.306	220	450.48677582001	0.28793660605468	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	313	28	60.206	45.896	53.051	0	0.24	0.3	0.54	F	F	28.206	534.206	220	450.48677582001	0.31933966632565	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	63.266	46.832	55.049	0	0.02	0.32	0.34	F	F	31.266	552.266	220	450.48677582001	0.43487312627875	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.9	46.904	53.402	0.21653555	0.21653555	0.33	0.54653555	F	F	27.9	547.9	220	450.48677582001	0.30850100915187	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.9	46.922	53.411	0.21653555	0.21653555	0.33	0.54653555	F	F	27.9	541.9	220	450.48677582001	0.30850100915187	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	58.406	44.852	51.629	0.18110246	0.18110246	0.36	0.54110246	F	F	26.406	539.406	220	450.48677582001	0.25807083207527	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-01 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	58.406	44.852	51.629	0.18110246	0.18110246	0.36	0.54110246	F	F	26.406	541.406	220	450.48677582001	0.25807083207527	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	61.232	46.22	53.726	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	29.232	545.232	220	450.48677582001	0.35677583271797	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	60.152	47.282	53.717	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	28.152	550.152	220	450.48677582001	0.31741536474406	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	313	28	60.872	48.632	54.752	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	28.872	549.872	220	450.48677582001	0.3434596208316	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	313	28	60.278	48.524	54.401	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	28.278	554.278	220	450.48677582001	0.32191297709959	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	63.194	49.154	56.174	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	31.194	554.194	220	450.48677582001	0.43204485692367	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 20:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	64.508	49.802	57.155	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	32.508	555.508	220	450.48677582001	0.4840629347629	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.666	48.956	54.311	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	27.666	542.666	220	450.48677582001	0.30032303808428	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	58.514	48.596	53.555	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	26.514	540.514	220	450.48677582001	0.2615681913014	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	313	28	59.81	48.596	54.203	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	27.81	551.81	220	450.48677582001	0.3053440870342	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.462	43.43	49.946	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	24.462	525.462	220	450.48677582001	0.19948071895442	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	313	28	50.306	38.372	44.339	0	0	0.54	0.54	F	F	18.306	515.306	220	450.48677582001	0.072283274684993	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	313	28	50.666	38.372	44.519	0	0	0.7	0.7	F	F	18.666	513.666	220	450.48677582001	0.077374113774174	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	313	28	52.664	38.822	45.743	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	20.664	539.664	220	450.48677582001	0.1106525685606	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	313	28	52.718	48.272	50.495	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	20.718	547.718	220	450.48677582001	0.1116756803007	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	313	28	56.282	52.25	54.266	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	24.282	562.282	220	450.48677582001	0.19449255369301	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 04:00:17	FORECAST	2023	313	28	50.216	49.082	49.649	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	18.216	550.216	220	450.48677582001	0.07105145032084	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L