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Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 8, 2023

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DAY 312 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/09/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 65.33°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 47.56°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 56.44°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.545 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 33 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 548 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.06 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.42 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 219 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.93 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 27 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 3 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 1 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 22.5 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
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D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-09 04:00:05	OBSERVATION	2023	312	27	65.33006	47.55992	56.44499	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	33.33006	548.33006	219	449.92553989522	0.54538517685277	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-09 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.006	44.924	53.465	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	30.006	545.006	220	450.48677582001	0.42295509377737	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-08 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	312	27	61.934	44.942	53.438	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	29.934	544.934	220	450.48677582001	0.42034214166732	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-08 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	312	27	61.106	43.826	52.466	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	29.106	544.106	220	450.48677582001	0.390572874735	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-08 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.762	45.932	54.347	0	0.06	0.42	0.48	F	F	30.762	545.762	220	450.48677582001	0.45057430030473	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.312	44.132	53.222	0	0.13	0.42	0.55	F	F	30.312	542.312	219	449.92553989522	0.43409663487403	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.222	44.402	53.312	0	0.04	0.42	0.46	F	F	30.222	543.222	219	449.92553989522	0.43081385963003	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-07 16:00:01	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.762	45.932	54.347	0	0.04	0.42	0.46	F	F	30.762	543.762	219	449.92553989522	0.45057430030473	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-07 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	62.492	46.346	54.419	0	0.04	0.42	0.46	F	F	30.492	543.492	219	449.92553989522	0.44067561503768	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-07 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.404	44.924	52.664	0	0.11	0.42	0.53	F	F	28.404	541.404	219	449.92553989522	0.36581939294203	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.692	44.888	52.79	0	0.02	0.42	0.44	F	F	28.692	540.692	219	449.92553989522	0.37591382665109	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-07 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.494	44.924	52.709	0	0.08	0.42	0.5	F	F	28.494	540.494	219	449.92553989522	0.36896431633903	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-06 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.494	44.816	52.655	0	0.16	0.42	0.58	F	F	28.494	542.494	219	449.92553989522	0.36896431633903	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.746	44.456	52.601	0	0.08	0.42	0.5	F	F	28.746	541.746	219	449.92553989522	0.37781625970143	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	61.358	45.662	53.51	0	0.08	0.42	0.5	F	F	29.358	543.358	219	449.92553989522	0.3995740152525	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.206	44.672	52.439	0	0.31	0.42	0.73	F	F	28.206	538.206	219	449.92553989522	0.35893246820878	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.908	44.852	52.88	0	0.11	0.42	0.53	F	F	28.908	540.908	219	449.92553989522	0.38354118837202	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.206	44.672	52.439	0	0.29	0.51	0.8	F	F	28.206	535.206	219	449.92553989522	0.35893246820878	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.386	44.222	52.304	0	0.36	0.41	0.77	F	F	28.386	537.386	219	449.92553989522	0.36519148061111	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	60.908	44.654	52.781	0	0.42	0.41	0.83	F	F	28.908	536.908	219	449.92553989522	0.38354118837202	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.802	43.304	51.053	0	0.3	0.41	0.71	F	F	26.802	535.802	219	449.92553989522	0.31151626490199	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.226	43.178	50.702	0	0.38	0.4	0.78	F	F	26.226	533.226	219	449.92553989522	0.29287951977463	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.064	43.754	50.909	0	0.53	0.44	0.97	F	F	26.064	535.064	219	449.92553989522	0.28773261851624	16	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-08-05 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	54.734	41.756	48.245	0.11417329	0.71417329	0.42	1.13417329	F	F	22.734	526.734	219	449.92553989522	0.19242493082303	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	312	27	55.166	41.864	48.515	0.06299216	0.59299216	0.33	0.92299216	F	F	23.166	524.166	219	449.92553989522	0.20357919022736	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-04 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	54.896	41.864	48.38	0.22440957	0.59440957	0.34	0.93440957	F	F	22.896	522.896	219	449.92553989522	0.19656336234026	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	53.204	42.26	47.732	0.18503947	0.30503947	0.34	0.64503947	F	F	21.204	525.204	219	449.92553989522	0.15600613033568	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.946	43.034	50.99	0.07086618	0.24086618	0.36	0.60086618	F	F	26.946	535.946	219	449.92553989522	0.31625446830723	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.208	42.476	50.342	0.06299216	0.23299216	0.35	0.58299216	F	F	26.208	532.208	219	449.92553989522	0.29230553876732	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-04 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	57.596	45.878	51.737	0	0.3	0.3	0.6	F	F	25.596	541.596	219	449.92553989522	0.27310857694837	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	54.896	45.824	50.36	0	0.08	0.33	0.41	F	F	22.896	538.896	219	449.92553989522	0.19656336234026	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-08-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.802	48.308	53.555	0	0.43	0.32	0.75	F	F	26.802	545.802	219	449.92553989522	0.31151626490199	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	55.58	45.338	50.459	0	0.25	0.32	0.57	F	F	23.58	538.58	219	449.92553989522	0.21462164024342	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	312	27	56.516	45.032	50.774	0	0.24	0.32	0.56	F	F	24.516	540.516	219	449.92553989522	0.24082903297075	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.802	48.308	53.555	0	0.43	0.32	0.75	F	F	26.802	547.802	219	449.92553989522	0.31151626490199	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	59.108	48.902	54.005	0	0.44	0.35	0.79	F	F	27.108	545.108	219	449.92553989522	0.32162117954285	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	58.946	47.894	53.42	0.02755907	0.47755907	0.32	0.79755907	F	F	26.946	544.946	219	449.92553989522	0.31625446830723	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	59.882	48.47	54.176	0	0.24	0.3	0.54	F	F	27.882	542.882	219	449.92553989522	0.34776207553599	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	63.824	51.368	57.596	0	0.02	0.32	0.34	F	F	31.824	557.824	219	449.92553989522	0.48974979968107	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	63.23	49.892	56.561	0	0.01	0.32	0.33	F	F	31.23	557.23	219	449.92553989522	0.46780151700112	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-02 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	312	27	63.302	49.874	56.588	0	0.01	0.32	0.33	F	F	31.302	551.302	219	449.92553989522	0.47045803902808	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	59.828	48.362	54.095	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	27.828	549.828	219	449.92553989522	0.34591280656666	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	312	27	59.828	48.362	54.095	0	0	0.36	0.36	F	F	27.828	551.828	219	449.92553989522	0.34591280656666	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	63.464	51.152	57.308	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	31.464	553.464	219	449.92553989522	0.47643984314659	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-08-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	67.118	52.592	59.855	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	35.118	559.118	219	449.92553989522	0.61020952083472	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	312	27	67.514	53.348	60.431	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	35.514	557.514	219	449.92553989522	0.62422626402079	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 04:00:14	FORECAST	2023	312	27	65.984	51.854	58.919	0	0	0.34	0.34	F	F	33.984	562.984	219	449.92553989522	0.5693311960496	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	69.062	53.366	61.214	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.062	560.062	219	449.92553989522	0.67731359646796	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-07-31 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	69.062	54.032	61.547	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.062	560.062	219	449.92553989522	0.67731359646796	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-07-31 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	67.532	52.772	60.152	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.532	551.532	219	449.92553989522	0.62485966741687	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-31 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	68.684	53.114	60.899	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.684	550.684	219	449.92553989522	0.6646305690507	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-07-31 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	70.214	54.266	62.24	0	0	0.31	0.31	F	F	38.214	561.214	219	449.92553989522	0.7146665392624	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-31 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	312	27	63.986	50.288	57.137	0	0.01	0.3	0.31	F	F	31.986	537.986	219	449.92553989522	0.49574389547303	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	312	27	65.084	49.208	57.146	0	0	0.54	0.54	F	F	33.084	534.084	219	449.92553989522	0.53632721420467	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	64.814	50.036	57.425	0	0.07	0.63	0.7	F	F	32.814	531.814	219	449.92553989522	0.52636643315904	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	66.254	50.882	58.568	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	34.254	556.254	219	449.92553989522	0.5791493224922	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	67.982	50.432	59.207	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	35.982	563.982	219	449.92553989522	0.64058134904445	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	74.912	50.972	62.942	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	42.912	574.912	219	449.92553989522	0.84207513754377	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-30 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	312	27	66.722	48.452	57.587	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	34.722	568.722	219	449.92553989522	0.59604799239152	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	312	27	56.39	49.172	52.781	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	24.39	549.39	219	449.92553989522	0.23720290766685	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	312	27	56.966	49.172	53.069	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	24.966	554.966	219	449.92553989522	0.25402177340445	16	2	2	4	1	5	2	20	DRY	L
2023-07-29 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	50.9	40.784	45.842	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	18.9	542.9	219	449.92553989522	0.11029285315625	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	312	27	48.236	42.548	45.392	0	0	0.32	0.32	F	F	16.236	529.236	219	449.92553989522	0.070430455052632	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	312	27	48.236	42.548	45.392	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	16.236	531.236	219	449.92553989522	0.070430455052632	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	312	27	52.394	51.476	51.935	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	20.394	544.394	219	449.92553989522	0.13869230989745	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L