morageology.com :: DFH V2

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 7, 2023

[ Sunday, August 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 8, 2023 ]

DAY 311 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/08/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_max): 60.77°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (T_min): 49.81°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (T_avg): 55.29°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (T_{max percentile}): 0.376 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD₃₂)	TODAY'S DD₃₂: 29 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD₃₂: 551 DD₃₂ is calculated as: DD₃₂ = T_MAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD₃₂ is the sum of DD₃₂ for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.06 in DAY 1-3 (P₃): 0.18 in DAY 4-15 (P₁₅): 0.30 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P₁₈): 0.48 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (P_A) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 2.5)* PRECIP THRESHOLD B (P_B) EXCEEDED: False P₃ > (-0.67 P₁₅ + 4.5)*
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 218 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 449.36 kg/m³ CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If T_avg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(T_avg - T₃₂), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F^-1 * day^-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T₃₂ = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 26 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D₀: 2 D₁: 2 D₂: 4 D₃: 2 D₄: 5 D₅: 2 HS_dry: 40.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HS_dry = (([D₀ + D₁ + D₂] * D₃) * D₄) / D₅ See model (right) to figure out how D₀ - D₅ are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-08 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	311	26	60.76994	49.80992	55.28993	0.059999999999945	0.17999999999995	0.3	0.47999999999995	F	F	28.76994	550.76994	218	449.36216721666	0.37638618318894	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-08 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.19	46.292	52.241	0.12598432	0.24598432	0.3	0.54598432	F	F	26.19	548.19	219	449.92553989522	0.28196093384517	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.802	46.994	52.898	0.04330711	0.16330711	0.3	0.46330711	F	F	26.802	548.802	219	449.92553989522	0.30332407321238	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.532	46.31	52.421	0.10629927	0.22629927	0.3	0.52629927	F	F	26.532	548.532	219	449.92553989522	0.29381002904952	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.334	46.256	52.295	0.01574804	0.13574804	0.3	0.43574804	F	F	26.334	548.334	219	449.92553989522	0.28692194893309	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-07 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.244	46.994	52.619	0.05905515	0.19905515	0.3	0.49905515	F	F	26.244	548.244	218	449.36216721666	0.28381647189763	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.55	46.202	52.376	0.09842525	0.27842525	0.3	0.57842525	F	F	26.55	549.55	218	449.36216721666	0.29443998929972	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.83	46.688	52.259	0.02362206	0.20362206	0.3	0.50362206	F	F	25.83	548.83	218	449.36216721666	0.26974210560746	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	58.982	47.12	53.051	0.01968505	0.19968505	0.3	0.49968505	F	F	26.982	549.982	218	449.36216721666	0.30974218321325	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	56.372	46.994	51.683	0.24409462	0.43409462	0.3	0.73409462	F	F	24.372	546.372	218	449.36216721666	0.22311880475549	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-06 04:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.578	46.616	52.097	0.01968505	0.22968505	0.3	0.52968505	F	F	25.578	547.578	218	449.36216721666	0.26134942883064	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-06 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	56.372	46.994	51.683	0.24409462	0.50409462	0.3	0.80409462	F	F	24.372	543.372	218	449.36216721666	0.22311880475549	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-05 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.038	46.346	51.692	0.26771668	0.46771668	0.3	0.76771668	F	F	25.038	545.038	218	449.36216721666	0.24382708954073	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-05 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.236	46.67	51.953	0.27165369	0.53165369	0.3	0.83165369	F	F	25.236	544.236	218	449.36216721666	0.25017751601729	16	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-08-05 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.758	45.698	51.728	0.03543309	0.40543309	0.3	0.70543309	F	F	25.758	544.758	218	449.36216721666	0.26733050897871	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-05 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	56.624	45.788	51.206	0.05905515	0.47905515	0.3	0.77905515	F	F	24.624	542.624	218	449.36216721666	0.23083444684134	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-05 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.542	46.184	51.863	0.04330711	0.67330711	0.3	0.97330711	F	F	25.542	544.542	218	449.36216721666	0.26016150329418	16	2	2	4	3	5	2	60	DRY	H
2023-08-05 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	56.858	45.986	51.422	0.10629927	0.70629927	0.31	1.01629927	F	F	24.858	539.858	218	449.36216721666	0.23813021403285	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-04 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	56.12	46.184	51.152	0.12204731	0.56204731	0.3	0.86204731	F	F	24.12	537.12	218	449.36216721666	0.21555189153433	16	1	2	4	3	5	2	52.5	DRY	MH
2023-08-04 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	55.616	45.986	50.801	0.07086618	0.41086618	0.3	0.71086618	F	F	23.616	535.616	218	449.36216721666	0.20087192978116	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	57.002	45.986	51.494	0	0.16	0.3	0.46	F	F	25.002	540.002	218	449.36216721666	0.24268187144988	16	1	2	4	2	5	2	35	DRY	L
2023-08-04 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	59.846	46.544	53.195	0.0393701	0.2293701	0.3	0.5293701	F	F	27.846	544.846	218	449.36216721666	0.34133349213751	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-04 04:00:12	FORECAST	2023	311	26	59.198	46.166	52.682	0.0393701	0.2193701	0.3	0.5193701	F	F	27.198	542.198	218	449.36216721666	0.31752096634599	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-04 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	61.412	48.182	54.797	0.2362206	0.2962206	0.3	0.5962206	F	F	29.412	552.412	218	449.36216721666	0.40138056507566	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	61.916	49.136	55.526	0.0393701	0.0993701	0.31	0.4093701	F	F	29.916	551.916	218	449.36216721666	0.42129295332037	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	64.85	49.028	56.939	0.28346472	0.45346472	0.3	0.75346472	F	F	32.85	554.85	218	449.36216721666	0.53959046143357	16	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-08-03 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	60.746	48.02	54.383	0.22047256	0.26047256	0.31	0.57047256	F	F	28.746	550.746	218	449.36216721666	0.37546346946911	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	62.42	48.416	55.418	0.20472452	0.25472452	0.31	0.56472452	F	F	30.42	552.42	218	449.36216721666	0.44140871375066	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-03 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	64.85	49.028	56.939	0.28346472	0.45346472	0.3	0.75346472	F	F	32.85	556.85	218	449.36216721666	0.53959046143357	16	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-08-03 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	64.85	49.55	57.2	0.28346472	0.49346472	0.3	0.79346472	F	F	32.85	553.85	218	449.36216721666	0.53959046143357	16	3	2	4	3	5	2	67.5	DRY	H
2023-08-02 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	64.058	50.18	57.119	0.30708678	0.46708678	0.3	0.76708678	F	F	32.058	554.058	218	449.36216721666	0.50756481317669	16	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-08-02 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	63.59	50.468	57.029	0.24409462	0.24409462	0.3	0.54409462	F	F	31.59	550.59	218	449.36216721666	0.4886043063662	16	2	2	4	2	5	2	40	DRY	M
2023-08-02 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.334	52.268	59.801	0.02362206	0.04362206	0.3	0.34362206	F	F	35.334	562.334	218	449.36216721666	0.63746389898893	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-02 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	68.198	53.042	60.62	0	0.03	0.3	0.33	F	F	36.198	562.198	218	449.36216721666	0.66982914656469	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-08-02 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.352	52.772	60.062	0	0.03	0.3	0.33	F	F	35.352	556.352	218	449.36216721666	0.63814927857232	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-02 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.694	52.286	59.99	0	0.06	0.3	0.36	F	F	35.694	557.694	218	449.36216721666	0.65108513741338	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.694	52.286	59.99	0	0.06	0.3	0.36	F	F	35.694	559.694	218	449.36216721666	0.65108513741338	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.712	52.322	60.017	0	0.03	0.3	0.33	F	F	35.712	557.712	218	449.36216721666	0.65176129001088	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	68.828	52.16	60.494	0	0.04	0.3	0.34	F	F	36.828	559.828	218	449.36216721666	0.6926688972004	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-08-01 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.802	51.512	59.657	0	0.04	0.3	0.34	F	F	35.802	557.802	218	449.36216721666	0.6551347885762	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.64	53.582	60.611	0	0.04	0.3	0.34	F	F	35.64	564.64	218	449.36216721666	0.64905380827305	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-01 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	70.52	53.618	62.069	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.52	558.52	218	449.36216721666	0.75025583662934	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-31 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	69.674	53.978	61.826	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.674	558.674	218	449.36216721666	0.72219002737267	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-31 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	68.414	52.61	60.512	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.414	552.414	218	449.36216721666	0.67773703566873	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-07-31 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	68.99	52.754	60.872	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	36.99	549.99	218	449.36216721666	0.69842781290848	16	3	2	4	1	5	1	45	DRY	M
2023-07-31 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	71.276	53.834	62.555	0	0.01	0.3	0.31	F	F	39.276	559.276	218	449.36216721666	0.77400287672282	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-31 04:00:15	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.55	51.512	59.531	0	0.01	0.3	0.31	F	F	35.55	541.55	218	449.36216721666	0.64565880424387	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-31 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.766	50.846	59.306	0	0.22	0.32	0.54	F	F	35.766	536.766	218	449.36216721666	0.65378684965133	16	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-07-30 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.496	51.98	59.738	0	0.33	0.37	0.7	F	F	35.496	535.496	218	449.36216721666	0.64361621399075	16	3	2	4	2	5	2	45	DRY	M
2023-07-30 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	68.792	52.196	60.494	0	0.2	0.35	0.55	F	F	36.792	557.792	218	449.36216721666	0.69138259769035	16	3	2	4	2	5	1	90	DRY	VH
2023-07-30 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	69.368	52.736	61.052	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	37.368	564.368	218	449.36216721666	0.71167278435871	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-30 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	71.924	53.438	62.681	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	39.924	567.924	218	449.36216721666	0.79330105237168	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-30 04:00:16	FORECAST	2023	311	26	72.014	54.734	63.374	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	40.014	570.014	218	449.36216721666	0.79590212390439	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-30 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	311	26	72.482	54.23	63.356	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	40.482	561.482	218	449.36216721666	0.80911099452073	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-29 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	73.076	56.102	64.589	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	41.076	566.076	218	449.36216721666	0.82510220033647	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-29 16:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	70.322	52.736	61.529	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	38.322	560.322	218	449.36216721666	0.7438246989512	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-29 12:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.442	49.064	58.253	0	0	0.32	0.32	F	F	35.442	549.442	218	449.36216721666	0.6415694974585	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	67.604	49.064	58.334	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	35.604	550.604	218	449.36216721666	0.64769721530516	16	3	2	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-07-29 04:00:13	FORECAST	2023	311	26	70.052	48.938	59.495	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	38.052	560.052	218	449.36216721666	0.73491798279546	16	4	2	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-07-29 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	52.88	48.812	50.846	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	20.88	546.88	218	449.36216721666	0.13208528521684	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 20:00:07	FORECAST	2023	311	26	53.456	47.462	50.459	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	21.456	544.456	218	449.36216721666	0.14502126370842	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 16:00:08	FORECAST	2023	311	26	53.762	48.542	51.152	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	21.762	531.762	218	449.36216721666	0.15222841911912	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 12:00:06	FORECAST	2023	311	26	49.424	44.258	46.841	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	17.424	537.424	218	449.36216721666	0.071022085899745	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	311	26	49.424	44.258	46.841	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	17.424	544.424	218	449.36216721666	0.071022085899745	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L
2023-07-28 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	311	26	47.174	45.86	46.517	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	15.174	539.174	218	449.36216721666	0.044804122747066	16	1	2	4	1	5	2	17.5	DRY	L