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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 6, 2023

[ Saturday, August 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, August 7, 2023 ]

DAY 310 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/07/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.40°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 51.92°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 56.16°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.369
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 28
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 562

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.42 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 217
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 448.80 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 25

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 40.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-07 04:00:07OBSERVATION20233102560.4000451.9200656.16005000.120.30.42FF28.40004562.40004217448.79664964921 00.3692802149740716 22425240DRYM
2023-08-07 00:00:02FORECAST20233102559.88248.6554.26600.015748040.135748040.30.43574804FF27.882561.882218449.3621672166600.349146774032181622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 12:00:02FORECAST20233102561.01648.7454.87800.062992160.182992160.30.48299216FF29.016563.016218449.3621672166600.393689910520361622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 08:00:01FORECAST20233102560.20648.23654.22100.066929170.186929170.30.48692917FF28.206562.206218449.3621672166600.361693374957871622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 04:00:05FORECAST20233102560.04448.25454.14900.094488240.214488240.30.51448824FF28.044562.044218449.3621672166600.35540049466121622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 00:00:04FORECAST20233102560.20648.23654.22100.051181130.261181130.30.56118113FF28.206559.206217448.7966496492100.361693374957871622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 20:00:01FORECAST20233102559.88248.21854.0500.094488240.204488240.30.50448824FF27.882559.882217448.7966496492100.349146774032181622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 16:00:02FORECAST20233102558.5548.63253.59100.153543390.263543390.30.56354339FF26.55558.55217448.7966496492100.299399942684061622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233102559.43248.5653.99600.263779670.373779670.30.67377967FF27.432559.432217448.7966496492100.3319933470211622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 08:00:03FORECAST20233102558.13647.9353.03300.322834820.422834820.30.72283482FF26.136558.136217448.7966496492100.284618095817711622425240DRYM
2023-08-05 04:00:14FORECAST20233102559.37848.63254.00500.488189240.628189240.30.92818924FF27.378559.378217448.7966496492100.329957518017511622435260DRYH
2023-08-05 00:00:03FORECAST20233102559.12648.41653.77100.492126250.612126250.30.91212625FF27.126555.126217448.7966496492100.320524187155891622435260DRYH
2023-08-04 20:00:05FORECAST20233102558.147.87652.98800.409449040.439449040.30.73944904FF26.1553.1217448.7966496492100.283349344173441622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 16:00:03FORECAST20233102557.8347.64252.73600.303149770.343149770.30.64314977FF25.83551.83217448.7966496492100.273921061143351622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 12:00:03FORECAST20233102558.80247.62453.21300.11811030.15811030.30.4581103FF26.802554.802217448.7966496492100.308564482776591622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 08:00:03FORECAST20233102558.80247.58853.19500.133858340.193858340.30.49385834FF26.802556.802217448.7966496492100.308564482776591622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 04:00:11FORECAST20233102558.49647.1252.80800.133858340.183858340.30.48385834FF26.496555.496217448.7966496492100.297452268182831622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 00:00:04FORECAST20233102563.12249.6456.38100.055118140.055118140.30.35511814FF31.122563.122217448.7966496492100.479766191947111622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 20:00:03FORECAST20233102563.26650.0956.67800.03937010.06937010.30.3693701FF31.266562.266217448.7966496492100.485733745238511622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 16:00:04FORECAST20233102562.38450.8156.59700.149606380.169606380.30.46960638FF30.384562.384217448.7966496492100.449282283798261622425240DRYM
2023-08-03 12:00:03FORECAST20233102562.16849.20855.68800.031496080.051496080.30.35149608FF30.168562.168217448.7966496492100.440408447526581622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20233102562.49249.8256.15600.043307110.063307110.30.36330711FF30.492562.492217448.7966496492100.453729017400811622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 04:00:07FORECAST20233102562.38450.8156.59700.149606380.169606380.30.46960638FF30.384564.384217448.7966496492100.449282283798261622425240DRYM
2023-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233102562.13250.30656.21900.161417410.211417410.30.51141741FF30.132561.132217448.7966496492100.438932256794781622425240DRYM
2023-08-02 20:00:03FORECAST20233102562.88850.05456.47100.137795350.157795350.30.45779535FF30.888561.888217448.7966496492100.470079175346221622425240DRYM
2023-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233102562.650.0956.3450000.30.3FF30.6558.6217448.7966496492100.458181559064431622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233102565.1251.9858.55000.020.30.32FF33.12567.12217448.7966496492100.562379200769831632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233102565.9352.17859.05400.011811030.031811030.30.33181103FF33.93565.93217448.7966496492100.595309634452491632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233102564.9451.99858.46900.011811030.031811030.30.33181103FF32.94560.94217448.7966496492100.554993751030221632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233102566.72250.97258.847000.060.30.36FF34.722561.722217448.7966496492100.626869975546951632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233102566.72250.97258.847000.060.30.36FF34.722563.722217448.7966496492100.626869975546951632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233102566.54250.93658.739000.030.30.33FF34.542561.542217448.7966496492100.619763152664191632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:04FORECAST20233102567.38850.66659.027000.040.30.34FF35.388563.388217448.7966496492100.652775241714211632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:05FORECAST20233102566.39849.62258.01000.040.30.34FF34.398562.398217448.7966496492100.614048317406731632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:13FORECAST20233102567.4649.98258.721000.040.30.34FF35.46569.46217448.7966496492100.655536048149171632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233102567.0151.78259.3960000.30.3FF35.01560.01217448.7966496492100.638150763049991632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:06FORECAST20233102567.13651.40459.270000.30.3FF35.136561.136217448.7966496492100.643049289233741632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:07FORECAST20233102565.91250.1858.0460000.30.3FF33.912555.912217448.7966496492100.594584230190031632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233102565.06651.3558.2080000.30.3FF33.066553.066217448.7966496492100.560165726223191632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:07FORECAST20233102567.20853.27660.242000.010.30.31FF35.208560.208217448.7966496492100.645837960276841632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233102563.33850.21656.77700.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF31.338546.338217448.7966496492100.48871880416011622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233102565.10247.37256.237000.240.30.54FF33.102541.102217448.7966496492100.561641589251051632425245DRYM
2023-07-30 20:00:06FORECAST20233102563.93249.24456.58800.074803190.404803190.30.70480319FF31.932539.932217448.7966496492100.513354230501141632425245DRYM
2023-07-30 16:00:07FORECAST20233102571.04249.20860.125000.250.30.55FF39.042561.042217448.7966496492100.7801793836075716424251100DRYVH
2023-07-30 12:00:04FORECAST20233102570.80852.03461.4210000.30.3FF38.808566.808217448.7966496492100.772909214319071642415150DRYMH
2023-07-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233102572.7753.0662.9150000.30.3FF40.77567.77217448.7966496492100.829591228789831642415150DRYMH
2023-07-30 04:00:16FORECAST20233102571.83455.36463.5990000.30.3FF39.834569.834217448.7966496492100.803773709793431642415150DRYMH
2023-07-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233102570.7952.4361.610000.30.3FF38.79560.79217448.7966496492100.772344420822911642415150DRYMH
2023-07-29 20:00:05FORECAST20233102570.80852.98861.8980000.30.3FF38.808564.808217448.7966496492100.772909214319071642415150DRYMH
2023-07-29 16:00:07FORECAST20233102572.3252.73662.528000.020.310.33FF40.32562.32217448.7966496492100.817461851481861642415150DRYMH
2023-07-29 12:00:07FORECAST20233102570.28651.02660.656000.010.310.32FF38.286554.286217448.7966496492100.756213409878251642415150DRYMH
2023-07-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233102569.99851.06260.53000.020.310.33FF37.998554.998217448.7966496492100.746726274063121642415150DRYMH
2023-07-29 04:00:12FORECAST20233102566.90250.52258.7120000.30.3FF34.902561.902217448.7966496492100.633933907485911632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:06FORECAST20233102567.76653.18660.4760000.30.3FF35.766565.766217448.7966496492100.667175813784221632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:07FORECAST20233102566.6551.8959.270000.30.3FF34.65562.65217448.7966496492100.624032268768671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:08FORECAST20233102564.05848.59656.3270000.30.3FF32.058550.058217448.7966496492100.518576551943261632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:06FORECAST20233102569.74647.62458.6850000.30.3FF37.746559.746217448.7966496492100.738268732305391642415150DRYMH
2023-07-28 08:00:05FORECAST20233102567.60449.96458.7840000.30.3FF35.604566.604217448.7966496492100.661032762173081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233102569.72848.36259.0450000.30.3FF37.728563.728217448.7966496492100.737659132355721642415150DRYMH
2023-07-28 00:00:07FORECAST20233102551.63845.51848.5780000.30.3FF19.638541.638217448.7966496492100.106521391141651612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:04FORECAST20233102550.9946.79648.8930000.30.3FF18.99540.99217448.7966496492100.094636347409241612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:05FORECAST20233102555.83248.3852.1060000.30.3FF23.832551.832217448.7966496492100.209318954143551612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:05FORECAST20233102559.79256.6658.2260000.30.3FF27.792553.792217448.7966496492100.345689965300481622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:06FORECAST20233102559.79256.6658.2260000.30.3FF27.792549.792217448.7966496492100.345689965300481622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:09FORECAST20233102549.94649.44249.6940000.30.3FF17.946544.946217448.7966496492100.0775838932264951612415217.5DRYL