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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 4, 2023

[ Thursday, August 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 5, 2023 ]

DAY 308 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/05/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.34°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.29°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 58.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.639
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 584

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 215
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 447.66 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 23

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-05 04:00:11OBSERVATION20233082367.3399449.2900858.315010000.30.3FF35.33994584.33994215447.65914715223 00.63895931967816 32415222.5DRYL
2023-08-05 00:00:02FORECAST20233082363.46446.11254.78800.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF31.464580.464216448.2289790267900.476742134130351622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 12:00:02FORECAST20233082363.46445.96854.7160000.30.3FF31.464580.464216448.2289790267900.476742134130351622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 08:00:02FORECAST20233082363.96846.52655.2470000.30.3FF31.968580.968216448.2289790267900.49820595155641622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 04:00:11FORECAST20233082362.74446.09454.4190000.30.3FF30.744579.744216448.2289790267900.446211520337151622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 00:00:03FORECAST20233082365.28246.32855.8050000.30.3FF33.282579.282215447.6591471522300.554033290260261632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 20:00:02FORECAST20233082365.35447.3956.37200.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF33.354578.354215447.6591471522300.55707163215831632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 16:00:02FORECAST20233082365.8448.21857.0290000.30.3FF33.84578.84215447.6591471522300.577483996911541632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 12:00:02FORECAST20233082365.73248.99257.36200.011811030.011811030.30.31181103FF33.732578.732215447.6591471522300.572963862193571632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 08:00:06FORECAST20233082365.9348.4757.200.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF33.93578.93215447.6591471522300.581243024580991632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 04:00:06FORECAST20233082365.8448.21857.0290000.30.3FF33.84580.84215447.6591471522300.577483996911541632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 00:00:03FORECAST20233082365.94848.34457.1460000.30.3FF33.948578.948215447.6591471522300.581993952477551632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 20:00:02FORECAST20233082366.05647.9356.9930000.30.3FF34.056577.056215447.6591471522300.586493153294861632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 16:00:03FORECAST20233082364.99447.80456.3990000.30.3FF32.994574.994215447.6591471522300.541849932412951632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:03FORECAST20233082367.24449.1958.2170000.30.3FF35.244579.244215447.6591471522300.635114620083221632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:03FORECAST20233082366.00248.63257.3170000.30.3FF34.002577.002215447.6591471522300.584244933040761632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:07FORECAST20233082365.13848.68656.9120000.30.3FF33.138574.138215447.6591471522300.547947255152771632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:03FORECAST20233082365.96646.92256.4440000.30.3FF33.966571.966215447.6591471522300.582744581621511632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:03FORECAST20233082365.96646.92256.4440000.30.3FF33.966573.966215447.6591471522300.582744581621511632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:03FORECAST20233082365.33647.356.3180000.30.3FF33.336573.336215447.6591471522300.556312354078431632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233082365.4848.14656.8130000.30.3FF33.48573.48215447.6591471522300.562380558686841632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:05FORECAST20233082364.36447.35455.8590000.30.3FF32.364572.364215447.6591471522300.515077141626531632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:12FORECAST20233082366.52447.53457.0290000.30.3FF34.524577.524215447.6591471522300.60585156835911632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233082366.18248.18257.1820000.30.3FF34.182571.182215447.6591471522300.591727866131561632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:05FORECAST20233082365.17447.17456.1740000.30.3FF33.174572.174215447.6591471522300.549469877596671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:07FORECAST20233082363.93246.99455.4630000.30.3FF31.932568.932215447.6591471522300.496671912566561622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233082364.25647.51655.8860000.30.3FF32.256567.256215447.6591471522300.510477313167341632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:06FORECAST20233082365.349.47857.3890000.30.3FF33.3571.3215447.6591471522300.554793180376881632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233082362.72648.39855.5620000.30.3FF30.726563.726215447.6591471522300.44545156597961622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233082360.15244.6952.42100.015748040.015748040.30.31574804FF28.152559.152215447.6591471522300.340130848523221622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 20:00:06FORECAST20233082360.38645.5952.98800.070866180.070866180.30.37086618FF28.386559.386215447.6591471522300.349337128920341622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 16:00:07FORECAST20233082362.63648.32655.48100.051181130.051181130.30.35118113FF30.636568.636215447.6591471522300.441654854823751622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233082365.01247.9356.4710000.30.3FF33.012573.012215447.6591471522300.542612666451761632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:04FORECAST20233082365.49848.00256.750000.30.3FF33.498572.498215447.6591471522300.563138083883051632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:15FORECAST20233082365.19248.95657.0740000.30.3FF33.192574.192215447.6591471522300.550230917319611632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:04FORECAST20233082364.0448.97456.5070000.30.3FF32.04566.04215447.6591471522300.501274086435881632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:04FORECAST20233082365.44449.51457.4790000.30.3FF33.444570.444215447.6591471522300.560864824955341632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20233082363.42847.46255.44500.015748040.025748040.30.32574804FF31.428566.428215447.6591471522300.475210845788071622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20233082364.2247.98456.10200.007874020.017874020.30.31787402FF32.22560.22215447.6591471522300.508943697031831632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:05FORECAST20233082363.75247.62455.68800.015748040.025748040.30.32574804FF31.752561.752215447.6591471522300.489002909316371622415220DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:12FORECAST20233082365.46248.32656.8940000.30.3FF33.462570.462215447.6591471522300.56162280480021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20233082366.8346.52656.6780000.30.3FF34.83571.83215447.6591471522300.618372260294171632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:06FORECAST20233082365.69645.26655.4810000.30.3FF33.696569.696215447.6591471522300.571454988659021632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233082364.90446.6755.7870000.30.3FF32.904563.904215447.6591471522300.538034006075951632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:05FORECAST20233082365.40846.7656.0840000.30.3FF33.408568.408215447.6591471522300.559348198332251632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233082366.77649.08257.9290000.30.3FF34.776575.776215447.6591471522300.616171290883821632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233082364.83244.79854.8150000.30.3FF32.832569.832215447.6591471522300.534978725258571632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20233082366.93847.73257.3350000.30.3FF34.938564.938215447.6591471522300.622762674878541632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233082366.27246.88656.5790000.30.3FF34.272566.272215447.6591471522300.595457009815161632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233082367.8247.46257.6410000.30.3FF35.82568.82215447.6591471522300.657980289781491632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:05FORECAST20233082367.2846.65256.9660000.30.3FF35.28567.28215447.6591471522300.636558900633361632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:06FORECAST20233082366.70446.65256.6780000.30.3FF34.704563.704215447.6591471522300.613230839078731632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233082370.749.74860.2240000.30.3FF38.7569.7215447.6591471522300.762576741942731642415150DRYMH
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233082369.56647.60658.5860000.30.3FF37.566565.566215447.6591471522300.723565935128621642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233082367.29848.257.7490000.30.3FF35.298546.298215447.6591471522300.637280315460331632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:05FORECAST20233082367.83849.85658.8470000.30.3FF35.838566.838215447.6591471522300.658686109720971632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:06FORECAST20233082370.32250.5460.4310000.30.3FF38.322567.322215447.6591471522300.749917941808321642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 08:00:07FORECAST20233082371.1550.0960.620000.30.3FF39.15572.15215447.6591471522300.777177240839581642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 04:00:14FORECAST20233082373.4953.94263.7160000.30.3FF41.49588.49215447.6591471522300.844414684733741642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20233082361.64657.34459.4950000.240.24FF29.646592.646215447.6591471522300.400318762342881622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 20:00:07FORECAST20233082362.25857.32659.7920000.240.24FF30.258584.258215447.6591471522300.425771097794311622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 16:00:08FORECAST20233082364.11259.7261.9160000.240.24FF32.112593.112215447.6591471522300.504342145958631632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-25 12:00:05FORECAST20233082362.58257.77660.1790000.240.24FF30.582582.582215447.6591471522300.439379375587151622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 08:00:07FORECAST20233082362.58257.77660.1790000.240.24FF30.582576.582215447.6591471522300.439379375587151622415220DRYL
2023-07-25 04:00:09FORECAST20233082361.08859.4560.2690000.240.24FF29.088570.088215447.6591471522300.37747262772581622415220DRYL