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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 31, 2023

[ Wednesday, August 30, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, September 1, 2023 ]

DAY 335 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 09/01/2023 04:00:03 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.70°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.22°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 46.46°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.162
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 17
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 631

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.73 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 1.12 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.35 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 242
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 462.31 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 50

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 4
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 90.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-09-01 04:00:03OBSERVATION20233355048.7000444.2200246.4600300.730000000000021.120.231.35FF16.70004630.70004242462.30944875246 00.1623194611645216 13545290DRYVH
2023-09-01 00:00:01FORECAST20233355049.53241.61245.57200.385826980.775826980.231.00582698FF17.532631.532243462.8237151222600.182612859069431613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-31 12:00:02FORECAST20233355048.68642.20645.44600.311023790.701023790.230.93102379FF16.686630.686243462.8237151222600.161990062180621613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-31 08:00:02FORECAST20233355048.14641.28844.71700.318897810.708897810.230.93889781FF16.146630.146243462.8237151222600.149650704832561613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-31 04:00:04FORECAST20233355046.74240.8243.78100.405512030.795512030.231.02551203FF14.742628.742243462.8237151222600.120561546089621613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-31 00:00:02FORECAST20233355048.5641.57645.06800.271653690.531653690.230.76165369FF16.56634.56242462.3094487524600.159053370713571613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-30 20:00:02FORECAST20233355050.39642.47646.43600.251968640.501968640.230.73196864FF18.396637.396242462.3094487524600.205286165324771613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-30 16:00:01FORECAST20233355048.59641.34244.96900.665354690.915354690.231.14535469FF16.596635.596242462.3094487524600.159888853156751613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-30 12:00:02FORECAST20233355050.28843.35846.82300.649606650.899606650.231.12960665FF18.288637.288242462.3094487524600.202364027824281613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20233355047.8441.75644.79800.653543660.933543660.231.16354366FF15.84632.84242462.3094487524600.142943526666651613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-30 04:00:05FORECAST20233355047.62442.09844.86100.834646121.084646120.231.31464612FF15.624632.624242462.3094487524600.13833287724081613545290DRYVH
2023-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20233355047.58842.69245.1400.582677480.752677480.230.98267748FF15.588633.588242462.3094487524600.137574375217981613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20233355047.33641.95444.64500.484252230.534252230.230.76425223FF15.336631.336242462.3094487524600.132344161016341613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20233355046.95840.11843.53800.523622330.563622330.230.79362233FF14.958629.958242462.3094487524600.124757898456531613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20233355047.60640.87444.2400.795276020.905276020.231.13527602FF15.606633.606242462.3094487524600.137953271663471613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-29 04:00:07FORECAST20233355047.10242.85444.97800.559055420.579055420.230.80905542FF15.102632.102242462.3094487524600.12761137778191613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-29 00:00:03FORECAST20233355048.4742.81845.64400.338582860.438582860.230.66858286FF16.47626.47242462.3094487524600.156977168281271613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20233355049.2842.54845.91400.23622060.35622060.230.5862206FF17.28627.28242462.3094487524600.176305511430171613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20233355046.92241.30644.11400.251968640.531968640.230.76196864FF14.922622.922242462.3094487524600.124051528854521613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20233355048.00243.3445.67100.720472831.100472830.231.33047283FF16.002627.002242462.3094487524600.14646873014821613545290DRYVH
2023-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233355048.27242.02645.14900.846457151.136457150.231.36645715FF16.272629.272242462.3094487524600.152472391575091613545290DRYVH
2023-08-28 04:00:07FORECAST20233355048.27242.02645.14900.846457151.136457150.231.36645715FF16.272629.272242462.3094487524600.152472391575091613545290DRYVH
2023-08-28 00:00:04FORECAST20233355048.27242.02645.14900.846457151.136457150.231.36645715FF16.272626.272242462.3094487524600.152472391575091613545290DRYVH
2023-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233355048.27242.02645.14900.846457151.136457150.231.36645715FF16.272627.272242462.3094487524600.152472391575091613545290DRYVH
2023-08-27 16:00:03FORECAST20233355049.49640.96445.2300.901575291.191575290.231.42157529FF17.496630.496242462.3094487524600.181703300894141613545290DRYVH
2023-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20233355052.21441.16246.68800.027559070.267559070.230.49755907FF20.214633.214242462.3094487524600.258108130909811623525250DRYMH
2023-08-27 08:00:03FORECAST20233355051.47640.9146.19300.051181130.291181130.230.52118113FF19.476631.476242462.3094487524600.235856252922861613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233355051.42241.10846.26500.043307110.193307110.230.42330711FF19.422626.422242462.3094487524600.234270582242141613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233355051.56640.2845.92300.031496080.101496080.240.34149608FF19.566620.566242462.3094487524600.238512113750441613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233355051.74640.40646.07600.031496080.101496080.240.34149608FF19.746622.746242462.3094487524600.243872524095841613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 16:17:09FORECAST20233355051.1739.90245.536000.090.230.32FF19.17619.17242462.3094487524600.226949230841511613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 12:17:52FORECAST20233355053.65440.2846.967000.410.230.64FF21.654619.654242462.3094487524600.304456032549991623525250DRYMH
2023-08-26 08:17:45FORECAST20233355055.32841.25248.29000.350.230.58FF23.328625.328242462.3094487524600.362523240924781623525250DRYMH
2023-08-26 04:29:27FORECAST20233355053.43840.08246.76000.40.230.63FF21.438618.438242462.3094487524600.297272769508481623525250DRYMH
2023-08-26 00:12:24FORECAST20233355057.50640.85649.181000.070.180.25FF25.506619.506242462.3094487524600.442876404629071623515225DRYL
2023-08-25 16:00:05FORECAST20233355057.14641.19849.172000.030.050.08FF25.146625.146242462.3094487524600.429335021397531623515225DRYL
2023-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233355056.98441.10849.046000.110.040.15FF24.984627.984242462.3094487524600.423267439645241623525250DRYMH
2023-08-25 08:00:04FORECAST20233355056.49841.21648.857000.110.130.24FF24.498624.498242462.3094487524600.40517908648041623525250DRYMH
2023-08-25 04:00:06FORECAST20233355057.09240.98249.037000.180.040.22FF25.092624.092242462.3094487524600.427310564704831623525250DRYMH
2023-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233355058.24441.05449.649000.050.030.08FF26.244622.244242462.3094487524600.470828561647451623515225DRYL
2023-08-24 20:00:04FORECAST20233355058.49642.06250.279000.020.110.13FF26.496628.496242462.3094487524600.480413272559221623515225DRYL
2023-08-24 16:00:04FORECAST20233355057.6540.83849.244000.370.060.43FF25.65626.65242462.3094487524600.448312615568731623525250DRYMH
2023-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233355056.5742.45849.514000.330.080.41FF24.57630.57242462.3094487524600.407847086317671623525250DRYMH
2023-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233355055.77840.0147.894000.340.110.45FF23.778615.778242462.3094487524600.378760331400491623525250DRYMH
2023-08-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233355060.49440.71250.603000.190.080.27FF28.494620.494242462.3094487524600.556353786725211633525255DRYH
2023-08-24 00:00:04FORECAST20233355060.90840.35250.63000.150.050.2FF28.908620.908242462.3094487524600.57192455646521633525255DRYH
2023-08-23 20:00:04FORECAST20233355060.51240.40650.459000.140.090.23FF28.512629.512242462.3094487524600.557032769112811633525255DRYH
2023-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233355060.96242.09851.5300.043307110.573307110.060.63330711FF28.962623.962242462.3094487524600.573947829789321633535282.5DRYVH
2023-08-23 12:00:05FORECAST20233355059.66641.39650.53100.035433090.545433090.040.58543309FF27.666624.666242462.3094487524600.524973862207381633535282.5DRYVH
2023-08-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233355057.84840.2849.06400.043307110.563307110.050.61330711FF25.848619.848242462.3094487524600.455803074458381623535275DRYVH
2023-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20233355061.17840.58650.882000.120.230.35FF29.178621.178242462.3094487524600.582020960977251633525255DRYH
2023-08-23 00:00:04FORECAST20233355061.68240.76651.224000.050.370.42FF29.682621.682242462.3094487524600.600718826339341633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233355060.63840.31650.477000.040.350.39FF28.638617.638242462.3094487524600.561780847854591633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:04FORECAST20233355058.92841.2750.099000.010.30.31FF26.928619.928242462.3094487524600.49686750874251623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233355056.22840.13648.18200.098425250.288425250.120.40842525FF24.228611.228242462.3094487524600.395214225711161623525250DRYMH
2023-08-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233355056.87640.2848.57800.106299270.336299270.130.46629927FF24.876608.876242462.3094487524600.419232377784191623525250DRYMH
2023-08-22 04:00:08FORECAST20233355058.49640.0149.253000.070.150.22FF26.496632.496242462.3094487524600.480413272559221623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:04FORECAST20233355047.44444.47445.9590000.230.23FF15.444623.444242462.3094487524600.13456870675631613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:04FORECAST20233355047.44443.05245.2480000.180.18FF15.444611.444242462.3094487524600.13456870675631613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:04FORECAST20233355046.56243.64645.1040000.240.24FF14.562607.562242462.3094487524600.117141070540341613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20233355046.97643.08845.0320000.170.17FF14.976623.976242462.3094487524600.125112132139811613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:04FORECAST20233355045.2341.1843.2050000.150.15FF13.23628.23242462.3094487524600.0939467988008951613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:09FORECAST20233355047.19245.91446.55300.023622060.263622060.190.45362206FF15.192619.192242462.3094487524600.129417604900951613525245DRYM