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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 30, 2023

[ Tuesday, August 29, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 31, 2023 ]

DAY 334 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/31/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 48.07°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 42.87°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 45.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.114
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 16
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 660

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.14 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.39 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.62 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 241
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 49

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-31 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233344948.0700442.8700245.4700300.139999999999990.389999999999990.230.61999999999999FF16.07004660.07004241461.79322445274 00.1142531846412116 13525245DRYM
2023-08-31 00:00:01FORECAST20233344951.67440.11845.89600.007874020.257874020.230.48787402FF19.674663.674242462.3094487524600.198176499240551613525245DRYM
2023-08-30 12:00:01FORECAST20233344953.00641.3647.183000.250.230.48FF21.006665.006242462.3094487524600.236802784356771613525245DRYM
2023-08-30 08:00:02FORECAST20233344951.33240.22645.77900.027559070.277559070.230.50755907FF19.332663.332242462.3094487524600.188907938460051613525245DRYM
2023-08-30 04:00:04FORECAST20233344950.9939.97445.48200.003937010.253937010.230.48393701FF18.99662.99242462.3094487524600.17991077734991613525245DRYM
2023-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20233344951.54841.32446.43600.015748040.165748040.230.39574804FF19.548663.548241461.7932244527400.194730344047051613525245DRYM
2023-08-29 16:00:02FORECAST20233344950.70239.70445.20300.011811030.051811030.230.28181103FF18.702661.702241461.7932244527400.172546195660191613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20233344950.19840.87445.536000.040.230.27FF18.198661.198241461.7932244527400.160126937614051613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:03FORECAST20233344951.58441.28846.436000.110.230.34FF19.584663.584241461.7932244527400.195711228327321613525245DRYM
2023-08-29 04:00:07FORECAST20233344950.9941.19846.094000.020.230.25FF18.99662.99241461.7932244527400.17991077734991613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20233344951.81842.27847.04800.031496080.101496080.230.33149608FF19.818655.818241461.7932244527400.202159627703511613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 20:00:03FORECAST20233344951.841.52246.661000.120.230.35FF19.8655.8241461.7932244527400.201659138492931613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 16:00:03FORECAST20233344950.39640.71245.554000.280.230.51FF18.396654.396241461.7932244527400.164934656176421613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 12:00:03FORECAST20233344952.23241.95447.09300.007874020.377874020.230.60787402FF20.232657.232241461.7932244527400.213874337515571613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233344952.32241.39646.85900.007874020.287874020.230.51787402FF20.322659.322241461.7932244527400.216472244295191613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:06FORECAST20233344952.32241.39646.85900.007874020.287874020.230.51787402FF20.322659.322241461.7932244527400.216472244295191613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20233344952.32241.39646.85900.007874020.287874020.230.51787402FF20.322656.322241461.7932244527400.216472244295191613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233344952.32241.39646.85900.007874020.287874020.230.51787402FF20.322657.322241461.7932244527400.216472244295191613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20233344952.95241.52247.23700.007874020.287874020.230.51787402FF20.952658.952241461.7932244527400.235160564306891613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20233344953.34841.93647.642000.240.230.47FF21.348659.348241461.7932244527400.247348297833981613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 08:00:03FORECAST20233344952.37641.55846.967000.240.230.47FF20.376658.376241461.7932244527400.218039697429971613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233344951.42241.23446.328000.150.230.38FF19.422653.422241461.7932244527400.191320816745181613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233344951.18841.5446.364000.080.230.31FF19.188647.188241461.7932244527400.185086451424581613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233344950.97240.92845.95000.080.230.31FF18.972648.972241461.7932244527400.17944480102531613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 16:13:09FORECAST20233344951.6240.83846.22900.007874020.087874020.230.31787402FF19.62645.62241461.7932244527400.196695099470971613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 12:14:27FORECAST20233344951.3541.3646.35500.007874020.407874020.230.63787402FF19.35644.35241461.7932244527400.189389011578721613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 08:15:56FORECAST20233344952.93442.04447.489000.350.230.58FF20.934647.934241461.7932244527400.234614556266491613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 04:25:46FORECAST20233344951.31441.21646.26500.007874020.397874020.230.62787402FF19.314643.314241461.7932244527400.188427617298451613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 00:10:43FORECAST20233344952.89840.9146.904000.090.160.25FF20.898639.898241461.7932244527400.233524643081611613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 16:00:04FORECAST20233344952.53840.62246.58000.040.040.08FF20.538645.538241461.7932244527400.222781050012371613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233344952.64641.3647.003000.110.040.15FF20.646648.646241461.7932244527400.225974263213351613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 08:00:04FORECAST20233344951.69240.87446.283000.110.130.24FF19.692645.692241461.7932244527400.198671788930311613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 04:00:06FORECAST20233344951.96240.35246.157000.180.040.22FF19.962644.962241461.7932244527400.206190173191021613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233344952.03441.1846.607000.050.030.08FF20.034642.034241461.7932244527400.208223147813141613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233344952.05242.3547.201000.020.110.13FF20.052648.052241461.7932244527400.208733229724941613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233344949.71241.46845.5900.216535550.386535550.040.42653555FF17.712646.712241461.7932244527400.148717557738131613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233344949.49643.0746.28300.255905650.345905650.060.40590565FF17.496652.496241461.7932244527400.143825069629791613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233344947.89440.8244.35700.263779670.363779670.090.45377967FF15.894637.894241461.7932244527400.110926082980371613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 04:00:08FORECAST20233344948.70441.64845.17600.137795350.187795350.080.26779535FF16.704637.704241461.7932244527400.126819720137891613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233344952.0740.69446.38200.059055150.149055150.050.19905515FF20.07638.07241461.7932244527400.209244045851131613525245DRYM
2023-08-23 20:00:04FORECAST20233344952.95240.92846.9400.082677210.142677210.090.23267721FF20.952646.952241461.7932244527400.235160564306891613525245DRYM
2023-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233344949.74841.21645.48200.456693160.526693160.060.58669316FF17.748640.748241461.7932244527400.149543632527811613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233344949.08240.1944.63600.437008110.507008110.040.54700811FF17.082643.082241461.7932244527400.134753493308541613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233344947.9339.43443.68200.47244120.53244120.040.5724412FF15.93639.93241461.7932244527400.111600781477711613535267.5DRYH
2023-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20233344949.76640.31645.04100.070866180.120866180.230.35086618FF17.766637.766241461.7932244527400.149957812943331613525245DRYM
2023-08-23 00:00:04FORECAST20233344950.82840.08245.45500.051181130.051181130.370.42118113FF18.828637.828241461.7932244527400.175744285025011613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233344950.57640.98245.77900.03937010.03937010.350.3893701FF18.576634.576241461.7932244527400.169385374279071613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:04FORECAST20233344950.6342.31446.472000.010.30.31FF18.63638.63241461.7932244527400.170735445237861613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233344949.49640.74845.12200.141732360.191732360.120.31173236FF17.496633.496241461.7932244527400.143825069629791613525245DRYM
2023-08-22 08:00:05FORECAST20233344950.39640.89245.64400.173228440.233228440.130.36322844FF18.396630.396241461.7932244527400.164934656176421613525245DRYM
2023-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20233344956.24643.82650.036000.080.140.22FF24.246652.246241461.7932244527400.345771609208831623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:04FORECAST20233344958.44245.6852.061000.030.20.23FF26.442654.442241461.7932244527400.428582176699461623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:04FORECAST20233344955.43643.77249.604000.040.140.18FF23.436642.436241461.7932244527400.316779928552971623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:04FORECAST20233344956.3943.23249.8110000.240.24FF24.39639.39241461.7932244527400.351027977977181623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20233344958.65844.31251.4850000.170.17FF26.658654.658241461.7932244527400.43696725335491623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:04FORECAST20233344958.47844.74451.6110000.150.15FF26.478661.478241461.7932244527400.429977558896391623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:09FORECAST20233344956.3944.04250.21600.15748040.23748040.190.4274804FF24.39650.39241461.7932244527400.351027977977181623525250DRYMH
2023-08-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233344946.61639.36242.989000.050.230.28FF14.616634.616241461.7932244527400.0888303904498651613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20233344946.81439.36243.088000.040.150.19FF14.814636.814241461.7932244527400.0920215334190351613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:35:39FORECAST20233344953.99645.0549.52300000FF21.996640.996241461.7932244527400.267997180373271623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 12:33:10FORECAST20233344959.43256.31857.8750000.20.2FF27.432667.432241461.7932244527400.467220547467811623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 08:06:10FORECAST20233344959.43256.31857.8750000.210.21FF27.432664.432241461.7932244527400.467220547467811623515225DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:11FORECAST20233344949.78446.9448.36200.027559070.2075590700.20755907FF17.784645.784241461.7932244527400.150372755502341613525245DRYM