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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 29, 2023

[ Monday, August 28, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 30, 2023 ]

DAY 333 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/30/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 51.22°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.80°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 47.51°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.142
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 19
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 678

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.25 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.25 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.48 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 240
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 461.28 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 48

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-30 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233334851.2200443.8000847.5100600.250.250.230.48FF19.22004678.22004240461.27503476881 00.1421232413473716 13525245DRYM
2023-08-30 00:00:02FORECAST20233334851.04443.91647.4800.153543390.153543390.230.38354339FF19.044678.044241461.7932244527400.138159362589551613525245DRYM
2023-08-29 12:00:01FORECAST20233334850.43242.40446.41800.043307110.043307110.230.27330711FF18.432677.432241461.7932244527400.124967485659521613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 08:00:02FORECAST20233334850.77444.00647.3900.114173290.114173290.230.34417329FF18.774677.774241461.7932244527400.132227079848951613525245DRYM
2023-08-29 04:00:07FORECAST20233334851.09844.0647.57900.019685050.019685050.230.24968505FF19.098678.098241461.7932244527400.139367201793691613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-29 00:00:02FORECAST20233334852.05244.76248.40700.074803190.074803190.230.30480319FF20.052670.052240461.2750347688100.161887506508751613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-28 20:00:02FORECAST20233334851.83643.98847.91200.122047310.122047310.230.35204731FF19.836669.836240461.2750347688100.156592251070321613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 16:00:02FORECAST20233334852.3443.30447.82200.283464720.283464720.230.51346472FF20.34670.34240461.2750347688100.169126722779621613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 12:00:02FORECAST20233334852.86244.99648.92900.370078940.370078940.230.60007894FF20.862670.862240461.2750347688100.182767521108871613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 08:00:03FORECAST20233334853.04244.47448.75800.27559070.27559070.230.5055907FF21.042673.042240461.2750347688100.187625848659041613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 04:00:06FORECAST20233334853.04244.47448.75800.27559070.27559070.230.5055907FF21.042673.042240461.2750347688100.187625848659041613525245DRYM
2023-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20233334853.04244.47448.75800.27559070.27559070.230.5055907FF21.042670.042240461.2750347688100.187625848659041613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233334853.04244.47448.75800.27559070.27559070.230.5055907FF21.042671.042240461.2750347688100.187625848659041613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 16:00:02FORECAST20233334853.38444.54648.96500.283464720.283464720.230.51346472FF21.384672.384240461.2750347688100.197073480502611613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 12:00:03FORECAST20233334853.04244.2448.64100.23622060.23622060.230.4662206FF21.042672.042240461.2750347688100.187625848659041613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 08:00:03FORECAST20233334852.59244.00648.29900.240157610.240157610.230.47015761FF20.592671.592240461.2750347688100.175628476155741613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 04:00:07FORECAST20233334852.39444.16848.28100.149606380.149606380.230.37960638FF20.394668.394240461.2750347688100.170506813222911613525245DRYM
2023-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233334852.41243.98848.200.070866180.080866180.230.31086618FF20.412662.412240461.2750347688100.170968437435621613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233334852.77243.82648.29900.070866180.080866180.230.31086618FF20.772663.772240461.2750347688100.180368012206831613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 16:09:04FORECAST20233334852.41244.00648.20900.07874020.07874020.230.3087402FF20.412660.412240461.2750347688100.170968437435621613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-26 12:11:10FORECAST20233334852.26844.49248.3800.397638010.397638010.230.62763801FF20.268659.268240461.2750347688100.167297765568161613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 08:12:37FORECAST20233334851.8945.30248.59600.35433090.35433090.230.5843309FF19.89660.89240461.2750347688100.157905280527831613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 04:22:43FORECAST20233334851.15244.38447.76800.385826980.385826980.230.61582698FF19.152658.152240461.2750347688100.140582184124581613525245DRYM
2023-08-26 00:08:41FORECAST20233334851.27844.04247.6600.074803190.094803190.160.25480319FF19.278653.278240461.2750347688100.14344495418281613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 16:00:04FORECAST20233334850.9942.96246.97600.031496080.041496080.040.08149608FF18.99658.99240461.2750347688100.136958660218361613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233334851.76443.80847.78600.106299270.106299270.040.14629927FF19.764661.764240461.2750347688100.154852728419851613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233334852.50244.2448.37100.114173290.114173290.130.24417329FF20.502659.502240461.2750347688100.173288507249131613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 04:00:06FORECAST20233334851.63843.37647.50700.177165450.177165450.040.21716545FF19.638658.638240461.2750347688100.151839311184441613525245DRYM
2023-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233334853.6943.2548.4700.047244120.047244120.030.07724412FF21.69655.69240461.2750347688100.205765506329791613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233334854.35643.9749.16300.023622060.023622060.110.13362206FF22.356662.356240461.2750347688100.225450368492581613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233334854.28443.66448.97400.153543390.173543390.040.21354339FF22.284663.284240461.2750347688100.22327230608621613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233334855.6745.1450.40500.070866180.090866180.060.15086618FF23.67668.67240461.2750347688100.267242896141281623525250DRYMH
2023-08-24 08:00:03FORECAST20233334852.8844.25848.56900.07874020.09874020.090.1887402FF20.88655.88240461.2750347688100.183249797959821613525245DRYM
2023-08-24 04:00:07FORECAST20233334854.15844.7849.46900.051181130.051181130.080.13118113FF22.158655.158240461.2750347688100.219489612371411613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233334852.57443.2547.91200.094488240.094488240.050.14448824FF20.574651.574240461.2750347688100.175158891543761613525245DRYM
2023-08-23 20:00:04FORECAST20233334854.75243.6149.18100.062992160.062992160.090.15299216FF22.752659.752240461.2750347688100.237642036342051613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233334854.01443.48448.74900.070866180.070866180.060.13086618FF22.014657.014240461.2750347688100.215211872742581613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233334854.12242.99848.5600.074803190.074803190.040.11480319FF22.122660.122240461.2750347688100.21841563085981613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233334853.94243.748.82100.047244120.057244120.040.09724412FF21.942657.942240461.2750347688100.213091243585031613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20233334853.7843.7948.78500.047244120.047244120.230.27724412FF21.78653.78240461.2750347688100.208364555630521613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233334855.70643.01649.3610000.370.37FF23.706652.706240461.2750347688100.268440454097841623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233334855.18443.82649.5050000.350.35FF23.184650.184240461.2750347688100.251343812708691623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233334854.9545.69850.32400.007874020.007874020.30.30787402FF22.95653.95240461.2750347688100.243870705352361613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233334854.89644.27649.58600.051181130.051181130.120.17118113FF22.896649.896240461.2750347688100.242163303419011613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233334855.88644.63650.26100.055118140.055118140.130.18511814FF23.886645.886240461.2750347688100.274468379582911623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20233334859.25246.5852.91600.074803190.084803190.140.22480319FF27.252662.252240461.2750347688100.397674550013591623515225DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:04FORECAST20233334864.90448.8356.867000.030.20.23FF32.904661.904240461.2750347688100.622285068721871633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:04FORECAST20233334861.86247.24654.554000.040.140.18FF29.862652.862240461.2750347688100.501692325371621633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233334860.18848.2954.2390000.240.24FF28.188649.188240461.2750347688100.434537435985081623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20233334861.03448.00254.5180000.170.17FF29.034662.034240461.2750347688100.46836247907671623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:04FORECAST20233334860.99848.4754.7340000.150.15FF28.998668.998240461.2750347688100.466916685665471623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:09FORECAST20233334862.83447.53455.18400.082677210.082677210.190.27267721FF30.834659.834240461.2750347688100.54078638034041633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233334862.20447.53454.86900.047244120.047244120.230.27724412FF30.204654.204240461.2750347688100.515468857308081633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20233334862.00647.76854.88700.043307110.043307110.150.19330711FF30.006656.006240461.2750347688100.507494165455511633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:31:44FORECAST20233334865.98454.55460.26900000FF33.984652.984240461.2750347688100.662965724590891633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:29:30FORECAST20233334877.0956.10266.5960000.20.2FF45.09674.09240461.2750347688100.938631952239391653515165DRYH
2023-08-20 08:06:10FORECAST20233334877.0955.34666.2180000.210.21FF45.09671.09240461.2750347688100.938631952239391653515165DRYH
2023-08-20 04:00:10FORECAST20233334867.53250.97259.25200.137795350.1777953500.17779535FF35.532661.532240461.2750347688100.718006466875591643525260DRYH
2023-08-20 00:00:15FORECAST20233334855.05844.27649.667000.0500.05FF23.058652.058240461.2750347688100.247304878556051613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:05FORECAST20233334854.89644.27649.586000.0800.08FF22.896658.896240461.2750347688100.242163303419011613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:06FORECAST20233334854.15841.9948.07400000FF22.158666.158240461.2750347688100.219489612371411613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:09FORECAST20233334848.3842.92645.653000.030.040.07FF16.38660.38240461.2750347688100.0872166214420351613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233334845.42839.50642.467000.0400.04FF13.428645.428240461.2750347688100.0487511918029471613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:09FORECAST20233334858.08256.35457.2180000.120.12FF26.082659.082240461.2750347688100.352884945895421623515225DRYL