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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 28, 2023

[ Sunday, August 27, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 29, 2023 ]

DAY 332 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/29/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.52°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.63°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.936
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 673

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.23 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.23 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 239
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 460.75 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 47

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 65.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-29 04:00:06OBSERVATION20233324777.7300853.5200865.625080000.230.23FF45.73008672.73008239460.75487221801 00.9363761213576716 53515165DRYH
2023-08-29 00:00:01FORECAST20233324768.75652.66460.710000.230.23FF36.756663.756240461.2750347688100.748943999036851643515160DRYH
2023-08-28 12:00:01FORECAST20233324769.36853.5161.4390000.230.23FF37.368664.368240461.2750347688100.767104226536541643515160DRYH
2023-08-28 08:00:02FORECAST20233324771.2453.94262.5910000.230.23FF39.24666.24240461.2750347688100.817879790033891643515160DRYH
2023-08-28 04:00:06FORECAST20233324771.2453.94262.5910000.230.23FF39.24666.24240461.2750347688100.817879790033891643515160DRYH
2023-08-28 00:00:03FORECAST20233324771.2453.94262.5910000.230.23FF39.24663.24239460.7548722180100.817879790033891643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 20:00:01FORECAST20233324771.2453.94262.5910000.230.23FF39.24664.24239460.7548722180100.817879790033891643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 16:00:01FORECAST20233324771.70854.2362.9690000.230.23FF39.708664.708239460.7548722180100.829405028329311643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 12:00:02FORECAST20233324772.19454.06863.1310000.230.23FF40.194665.194239460.7548722180100.840868881488831643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 08:00:02FORECAST20233324771.83453.67262.7530000.230.23FF39.834664.834239460.7548722180100.832426598241031643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 04:00:07FORECAST20233324770.01653.00661.5110000.230.23FF38.016662.016239460.7548722180100.785511430819391643515160DRYH
2023-08-27 00:00:03FORECAST20233324769.60253.16861.38500.011811030.011811030.230.24181103FF37.602655.602239460.7548722180100.773850349012891643515160DRYH
2023-08-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233324770.08852.9761.52900.011811030.011811030.230.24181103FF38.088657.088239460.7548722180100.787503219041381643515160DRYH
2023-08-26 16:04:40FORECAST20233324769.00853.09661.0520000.230.23FF37.008654.008239460.7548722180100.756511070186061643515160DRYH
2023-08-26 12:07:26FORECAST20233324768.07253.1560.6110000.230.23FF36.072653.072239460.7548722180100.727794821211721643515160DRYH
2023-08-26 08:08:41FORECAST20233324768.03652.77260.4040000.230.23FF36.036655.036239460.7548722180100.726657693038271643515160DRYH
2023-08-26 04:20:26FORECAST20233324767.42452.01659.720000.230.23FF35.424653.424239460.7548722180100.706974927134951643515230DRYL
2023-08-26 00:06:37FORECAST20233324767.40652.26859.83700.015748040.015748040.160.17574804FF35.406648.406239460.7548722180100.706386213081981643515230DRYL
2023-08-25 16:00:03FORECAST20233324769.72852.05260.8900.007874020.007874020.040.04787402FF37.728653.728239460.7548722180100.777436722643941643515160DRYH
2023-08-25 12:00:03FORECAST20233324769.56652.73661.1510000.040.04FF37.566655.566239460.7548722180100.772819714895421643515160DRYH
2023-08-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233324768.91853.2461.0790000.130.13FF36.918652.918239460.7548722180100.753822750144811643515160DRYH
2023-08-25 04:00:06FORECAST20233324770.41252.66461.5380000.040.04FF38.412653.412239460.7548722180100.796331827138481643515160DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:03FORECAST20233324770.37652.91661.6460000.030.03FF38.376648.376239460.7548722180100.795361786920761643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233324771.4253.56462.4920000.110.11FF39.42654.42239460.7548722180100.822368842820641643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233324769.85455.25662.55500.015748040.015748040.040.05574804FF37.854654.854239460.7548722180100.78099050459131643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233324772.03254.98663.50900.019685050.019685050.060.07968505FF40.032659.032239460.7548722180100.837104848720191643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233324770.4354.0562.2400.019685050.019685050.090.10968505FF38.43649.43239460.7548722180100.796815819428851643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 04:00:07FORECAST20233324769.60254.0561.8260000.080.08FF37.602646.602239460.7548722180100.773850349012891643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233324770.753.3362.0150000.050.05FF38.7644.7239460.7548722180100.803993171497981643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233324772.24855.65263.950000.090.09FF40.248651.248239460.7548722180100.842110829003251643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 16:00:03FORECAST20233324769.67455.29262.4830000.060.06FF37.674648.674239460.7548722180100.77590368371161643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 12:00:04FORECAST20233324773.47255.18464.3280000.040.04FF41.472652.472239460.7548722180100.868558124017561653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 08:00:04FORECAST20233324773.25654.8664.05800.011811030.011811030.040.05181103FF41.256650.256239460.7548722180100.864127238601121653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 04:00:07FORECAST20233324770.46654.57262.5190000.230.23FF38.466646.466239460.7548722180100.797781746167081643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233324767.60454.57261.0880000.370.37FF35.604642.604239460.7548722180100.712831749689621643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233324767.5554.24860.8990000.350.35FF35.55640.55239460.7548722180100.711080524240451643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233324767.51453.97860.7460000.30.3FF35.514644.514239460.7548722180100.709910258683711643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:04FORECAST20233324767.71252.7960.251000.010.110.12FF35.712640.712239460.7548722180100.716319062701411643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233324766.23652.53859.3870000.130.13FF34.236636.236239460.7548722180100.66700633312681633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20233324768.79253.79861.29500.007874020.017874020.130.14787402FF36.792648.792239460.7548722180100.750032561755881643515160DRYH
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233324767.13653.34860.24200.031496080.031496080.20.23149608FF35.136643.136239460.7548722180100.697490618261231633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:04FORECAST20233324765.31852.71859.01800.043307110.043307110.140.18330711FF33.318637.318239460.7548722180100.634734024509411633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233324764.95853.0659.0090000.240.24FF32.958634.958239460.7548722180100.621797530825851633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:04FORECAST20233324769.6254.53662.0780000.170.17FF37.62646.62239460.7548722180100.774364675354321643515160DRYH
2023-08-21 08:00:04FORECAST20233324770.30455.4962.8970000.150.15FF38.304654.304239460.7548722180100.793413496579181643515160DRYH
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233324773.6758.26265.9660000.190.19FF41.67642.67239460.7548722180100.87253148506231653515165DRYH
2023-08-21 00:00:04FORECAST20233324772.12257.14664.6340000.230.23FF40.122638.122239460.7548722180100.839203049888421643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 20:00:04FORECAST20233324772.15857.45264.8050000.150.15FF40.158640.158239460.7548722180100.840037380165561643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 16:27:52FORECAST20233324770.53855.07662.80700000FF38.538632.538239460.7548722180100.799705356213541643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 12:26:06FORECAST20233324771.79857.48864.6430000.20.2FF39.798642.798239460.7548722180100.83156682248311643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 08:06:09FORECAST20233324771.45656.49863.9770000.210.21FF39.456640.456239460.7548722180100.823258223234661643515160DRYH
2023-08-20 04:00:10FORECAST20233324766.250.3658.2800.03937010.039370100.0393701FF34.2640.2239460.7548722180100.665761914438261633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:13FORECAST20233324766.75851.18858.973000.0500.05FF34.758642.758239460.7548722180100.684838302509991633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:05FORECAST20233324765.87652.7959.33300.007874020.0778740200.07787402FF33.876649.876239460.7548722180100.654481535112871633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:06FORECAST20233324768.61252.44860.5300000FF36.612657.612239460.7548722180100.744564826467281643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 12:00:09FORECAST20233324766.52449.3757.94700.027559070.027559070.040.06755907FF34.524657.524239460.7548722180100.676894630811611633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233324765.13846.455.76900.03937010.039370100.0393701FF33.138646.138239460.7548722180100.628283878249451633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20233324770.80855.61663.2120000.120.12FF38.808646.808239460.7548722180100.806820598750171643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 00:00:07FORECAST20233324757.45247.44452.448000.110.060.17FF25.452631.452239460.7548722180100.343427324584511623525250DRYMH
2023-08-18 20:00:11FORECAST20233324756.80445.69851.251000.150.090.24FF24.804619.804239460.7548722180100.321068977169831623525250DRYMH
2023-08-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233324752.08846.23849.163000.030.120.15FF20.088607.088239460.7548722180100.180622183529451613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233324751.2648.18249.721000.380.170.55FF19.26605.26239460.7548722180100.160663380812451613525245DRYM
2023-08-18 08:00:04FORECAST20233324751.2648.18249.721000.260.090.35FF19.26608.26239460.7548722180100.160663380812451613525245DRYM
2023-08-18 04:00:08FORECAST20233324745.30244.00644.654000.2800.28FF13.302609.302239460.7548722180100.0595044499297411613525245DRYM