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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 26, 2023

[ Friday, August 25, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 27, 2023 ]

DAY 330 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/27/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 74.87°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 56.55°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.71°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.931
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 43
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 628

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 237
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 45

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 130.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-27 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233304574.8700656.5500265.71004000.230.060.29FF42.87006627.87006237459.70859844258 00.9307699397010716 535251130DRYVH
2023-08-27 00:00:02FORECAST20233304569.3551.51260.431000.230.060.29FF37.35622.35238460.2327292891900.8236187027923316435251120DRYVH
2023-08-26 12:00:41FORECAST20233304568.93651.87260.404000.230.060.29FF36.936621.936238460.2327292891900.8126921604801516435251120DRYVH
2023-08-26 08:00:38FORECAST20233304569.51251.4460.476000.230.060.29FF37.512622.512238460.2327292891900.8277825038572716435251120DRYVH
2023-08-26 04:14:52FORECAST20233304568.95451.2660.107000.230.060.29FF36.954621.954238460.2327292891900.8131757389593916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-26 00:02:25FORECAST20233304569.8951.31460.602000.160.060.22FF37.89616.89237459.7085984425800.8372524368210616435251120DRYVH
2023-08-25 16:00:02FORECAST20233304570.9751.6261.295000.040.060.1FF38.97618.97237459.7085984425800.862411834262081653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 12:00:02FORECAST20233304571.99652.68262.339000.040.060.1FF39.996619.996237459.7085984425800.883730699159361653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 08:00:03FORECAST20233304571.31252.91662.114000.130.060.19FF39.312619.312237459.7085984425800.8697952926725316535251130DRYVH
2023-08-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233304570.93453.22262.078000.040.060.1FF38.934618.934237459.7085984425800.86161837256541653515165DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20233304570.752.6161.655000.030.060.09FF38.7614.7237459.7085984425800.856385132947171653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 20:00:03FORECAST20233304571.31253.38462.348000.110.060.17FF39.312619.312237459.7085984425800.8697952926725316535251130DRYVH
2023-08-24 16:00:03FORECAST20233304571.04253.85262.447000.040.060.1FF39.042621.042237459.7085984425800.863989453024431653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233304571.56453.67262.618000.060.060.12FF39.564621.564237459.7085984425800.875057717647131653515165DRYH
2023-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233304570.10653.45661.781000.090.060.15FF38.106615.106237459.7085984425800.842509169256541643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 04:00:07FORECAST20233304569.8952.55661.223000.080.060.14FF37.89613.89237459.7085984425800.837252436821061643515160DRYH
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233304569.31452.82661.07000.050.060.11FF37.314612.314237459.7085984425800.822684855604041643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233304570.10653.79861.952000.090.060.15FF38.106616.106237459.7085984425800.842509169256541643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20233304570.62852.50261.565000.060.060.12FF38.628615.628237459.7085984425800.854748451351751653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20233304570.50252.5261.511000.040.060.1FF38.502616.502237459.7085984425800.851854251614911653515165DRYH
2023-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233304569.76453.20461.484000.040.060.1FF37.764614.764237459.7085984425800.834134044431591643515160DRYH
2023-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233304569.13453.22261.178000.230.060.29FF37.134614.134237459.7085984425800.8179690290958916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233304569.09853.2461.169000.370.060.43FF37.098612.098237459.7085984425800.8170165593792916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 20:00:03FORECAST20233304568.4552.77260.611000.350.060.41FF36.45610.45237459.7085984425800.7993451744391816435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233304568.6352.2560.44000.30.060.36FF36.63613.63237459.7085984425800.804353597375816435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233304567.53252.89860.21500.007874020.117874020.060.17787402FF35.532610.532237459.7085984425800.772631272357571643525260DRYH
2023-08-22 08:00:04FORECAST20233304566.90252.53859.72000.130.060.19FF34.902607.902237459.7085984425800.753197154657431643525260DRYH
2023-08-22 04:00:07FORECAST20233304569.40453.43861.42100.007874020.137874020.060.19787402FF37.404616.404237459.7085984425800.8250136414376416435251120DRYVH
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233304569.40451.22460.314000.20.060.26FF37.404613.404237459.7085984425800.8250136414376416435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20233304568.0950.0959.09000.140.060.2FF36.09610.09237459.7085984425800.789100734715316435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 16:00:03FORECAST20233304568.03650.10859.072000.240.060.3FF36.036608.036237459.7085984425800.787538095928816435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233304568.93652.6160.773000.170.060.23FF36.936614.936237459.7085984425800.8126921604801516435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233304570.10653.31261.709000.150.060.21FF38.106621.106237459.7085984425800.8425091692565416435251120DRYVH
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233304566.5652.17859.369000.190.060.25FF34.56608.56237459.7085984425800.742286735933341643525260DRYH
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233304567.0148.21857.614000.230.060.29FF35.01605.01237459.7085984425800.756590532032521643525260DRYH
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233304566.5648.00257.281000.150.060.21FF34.56606.56237459.7085984425800.742286735933341643525260DRYH
2023-08-20 16:18:56FORECAST20233304563.6849.89256.7860000.060.06FF31.68604.68237459.7085984425800.641571060517781633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:19:55FORECAST20233304565.73250.2758.001000.20.060.26FF33.732608.732237459.7085984425800.71487345548661643525260DRYH
2023-08-20 08:06:07FORECAST20233304565.15651.04458.1000.190.080.27FF33.156607.156237459.7085984425800.695019226045611633525255DRYH
2023-08-20 04:00:10FORECAST20233304567.7351.76459.7470000.060.06FF35.73614.73237459.7085984425800.778556518695021643515230DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:11FORECAST20233304569.7152.80861.2590000.060.06FF37.71615.71237459.7085984425800.832785875322881643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 20:00:04FORECAST20233304570.7953.94262.3660000.060.06FF38.79622.79237459.7085984425800.858413467421611653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 16:00:05FORECAST20233304571.56453.04262.3030000.060.06FF39.564625.564237459.7085984425800.875057717647131653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 12:00:07FORECAST20233304573.07654.91463.995000.040.060.1FF41.076630.076237459.7085984425800.903527190106471653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233304571.79855.56263.680000.060.06FF39.798620.798237459.7085984425800.879809937878921653515165DRYH
2023-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20233304568.23449.47858.856000.120.060.18FF36.234613.234237459.7085984425800.793234745153216435251120DRYVH
2023-08-19 00:00:06FORECAST20233304566.50647.28256.89400.106299270.166299270.060.22629927FF34.506612.506237459.7085984425800.740541465131451643525260DRYH
2023-08-18 20:00:10FORECAST20233304565.8446.27456.05700.145669370.235669370.060.29566937FF33.84602.84237459.7085984425800.718526484137021643525260DRYH
2023-08-18 16:00:06FORECAST20233304562.94247.53455.23800.031496080.151496080.060.21149608FF30.942599.942237459.7085984425800.613682387946211633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 12:00:04FORECAST20233304561.57446.50854.04100.047244120.217244120.060.27724412FF29.574600.574237459.7085984425800.560508014919371633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 08:00:04FORECAST20233304561.48446.88654.18500.051181130.141181130.060.20118113FF29.484605.484237459.7085984425800.556959852506591633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 04:00:08FORECAST20233304565.10250.39657.7490000.060.06FF33.102614.102237459.7085984425800.693126837269331633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233304564.0452.44858.24400.027559070.027559070.060.08755907FF32.04615.04237459.7085984425800.654916464465031633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233304563.24852.6157.92900.043307110.103307110.060.16330711FF31.248615.248237459.7085984425800.625326773110951633525255DRYH
2023-08-17 16:00:03FORECAST20233304560.58445.10452.84400.059055150.189055150.060.24905515FF28.584607.584237459.7085984425800.521273481651741633525255DRYH
2023-08-17 12:00:05FORECAST20233304571.8746.54459.20700.019685050.099685050.060.15968505FF39.87620.87237459.7085984425800.8812462776518116535251130DRYVH
2023-08-17 08:00:08FORECAST20233304569.1747.9358.5500.019685050.099685050.060.15968505FF37.17616.17237459.7085984425800.8189184000938616435251120DRYVH
2023-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20233304563.12245.82454.47300.007874020.127874020.060.18787402FF31.122610.122237459.7085984425800.620545172129261633525255DRYH
2023-08-17 00:00:05FORECAST20233304554.26648.97451.620000.060.06FF22.266602.266237459.7085984425800.281675868813641623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:08FORECAST20233304554.1450.39652.2680000.060.06FF22.14615.14237459.7085984425800.277441237813251623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:06FORECAST20233304557.95649.24453.60000.20.2FF25.956599.956237459.7085984425800.417144480055381623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233304544.1540.65842.4040000.440.44FF12.15599.15237459.7085984425800.0559445634461321613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20233304543.57439.39841.4860000.320.32FF11.574593.574237459.7085984425800.0497277398305321613415220DRYL
2023-08-16 04:00:11FORECAST20233304545.91444.3345.1220000.070.07FF13.914601.914237459.7085984425800.078822229841871613515222.5DRYL