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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 25, 2023

[ Thursday, August 24, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 26, 2023 ]

DAY 329 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/26/2023 04:11:57 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
VH
VERY HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.91°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 49.68°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.30°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.813
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 618

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.06 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.29 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 236
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 459.18 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 44

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 120.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-26 04:11:57OBSERVATION20233294468.9100849.6799659.2950200.230000000000020.230000000000020.060.29000000000002FF36.91008617.91008236459.18247210974 00.8130061481845316 435251120DRYVH
2023-08-26 00:00:18FORECAST20233294462.90649.08255.99400.161417410.161417410.060.22141741FF30.906611.906237459.7085984425800.617673798563381633525255DRYH
2023-08-25 12:00:01FORECAST20233294464.36449.85657.1100.035433090.035433090.060.09543309FF32.364613.364237459.7085984425800.670952623253981633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-25 08:00:02FORECAST20233294463.91449.96456.93900.133858340.133858340.060.19385834FF31.914612.914237459.7085984425800.654816481667981633525255DRYH
2023-08-25 04:00:05FORECAST20233294463.53650.19856.86700.043307110.043307110.060.10330711FF31.536612.536237459.7085984425800.641039727052471633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-25 00:00:02FORECAST20233294463.71649.35256.53400.027559070.027559070.060.08755907FF31.716608.716236459.1824721097400.647624278462881633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-24 20:00:02FORECAST20233294464.6749.69457.18200.106299270.106299270.060.16629927FF32.67612.67236459.1824721097400.681748370425661633525255DRYH
2023-08-24 16:00:02FORECAST20233294466.68651.2658.97300.035433090.035433090.060.09543309FF34.686614.686236459.1824721097400.748752880125961643515230DRYL
2023-08-24 12:00:03FORECAST20233294466.54251.33258.93700.055118140.055118140.060.11511814FF34.542614.542236459.1824721097400.744225686904181643515230DRYL
2023-08-24 08:00:02FORECAST20233294465.22849.49657.36200.090551230.090551230.060.15055123FF33.228610.228236459.1824721097400.701038011233021643525260DRYH
2023-08-24 04:00:06FORECAST20233294464.20250.21657.20900.07874020.07874020.060.1387402FF32.202609.202236459.1824721097400.66517826353631633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-24 00:00:03FORECAST20233294463.96849.98256.97500.051181130.051181130.060.11118113FF31.968607.968236459.1824721097400.656768462627591633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 20:00:03FORECAST20233294465.87651.81858.84700.094488240.094488240.060.15448824FF33.876610.876236459.1824721097400.722747481954471643525260DRYH
2023-08-23 16:00:02FORECAST20233294464.88650.5457.71300.055118140.055118140.060.11511814FF32.886609.886236459.1824721097400.689277765393551633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20233294464.6750.37857.52400.035433090.035433090.060.09543309FF32.67610.67236459.1824721097400.681748370425661633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233294463.89649.17256.53400.043307110.043307110.060.10330711FF31.896609.896236459.1824721097400.654164902368641633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233294463.93248.68656.30900.228346580.228346580.060.28834658FF31.932609.932236459.1824721097400.655467602614981633525255DRYH
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233294464.05849.58656.82200.370078940.370078940.060.43007894FF32.058608.058236459.1824721097400.660012472499061633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20233294463.03248.5655.79600.35433090.35433090.060.4143309FF31.032607.032236459.1824721097400.622384521711481633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233294464.00449.56856.78600.303149770.303149770.060.36314977FF32.004610.004236459.1824721097400.658067468798861633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233294463.5949.33456.46200.114173290.114173290.060.17417329FF31.59607.59236459.1824721097400.643019600139951633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 08:00:03FORECAST20233294463.10449.3756.23700.129921330.129921330.060.18992133FF31.104606.104236459.1824721097400.625068265988921633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 04:00:06FORECAST20233294464.36452.05258.20800.125984320.125984320.060.18598432FF32.364612.364236459.1824721097400.670952623253981633525255DRYH
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233294461.3452.08856.71400.204724520.204724520.060.26472452FF29.34609.34236459.1824721097400.557883888452881633525255DRYH
2023-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20233294459.73851.11655.42700.141732360.141732360.060.20173236FF27.738606.738236459.1824721097400.495332880980771623525250DRYMH
2023-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20233294459.82850.7255.27400.23622060.23622060.060.2962206FF27.828604.828236459.1824721097400.498858378059021623525250DRYMH
2023-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233294462.92450.52256.72300.169291430.169291430.060.22929143FF30.924610.924236459.1824721097400.61834784422131633525255DRYH
2023-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233294463.57250.8157.19100.153543390.153543390.060.21354339FF31.572615.572236459.1824721097400.642360067005261633525255DRYH
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233294461.50249.8255.66100.192913490.192913490.060.25291349FF29.502606.502236459.1824721097400.564155527808021633525255DRYH
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233294462.43849.02855.73300.228346580.228346580.060.28834658FF30.438603.438236459.1824721097400.600029093324911633525255DRYH
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233294461.98848.68655.33700.145669370.145669370.060.20566937FF29.988604.988236459.1824721097400.582867767531621633525255DRYH
2023-08-20 16:14:57FORECAST20233294462.56449.83856.2010000.060.06FF30.564605.564236459.1824721097400.604801370019561633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:16:52FORECAST20233294463.10450.91857.01100.19685050.19685050.060.2568505FF31.104608.104236459.1824721097400.625068265988921633525255DRYH
2023-08-20 08:05:23FORECAST20233294462.4251.1756.79500.192913490.212913490.060.27291349FF30.42607.42236459.1824721097400.599346100460171633525255DRYH
2023-08-20 04:00:09FORECAST20233294464.32850.73857.5330000.060.06FF32.328612.328236459.1824721097400.669672889201111633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:10FORECAST20233294464.45450.14457.2990000.060.06FF32.454611.454236459.1824721097400.674143184441291633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:04FORECAST20233294465.60650.32457.9650000.060.06FF33.606616.606236459.1824721097400.713795844329461643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:04FORECAST20233294466.25450.68458.4690000.060.06FF34.254619.254236459.1824721097400.735045340919421643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:07FORECAST20233294467.11851.11659.117000.040.060.1FF35.118622.118236459.1824721097400.762076545187141643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233294466.45251.09858.7750000.060.06FF34.452614.452236459.1824721097400.741374747745051643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20233294464.38250.73857.5600.051181130.121181130.060.18118113FF32.382610.382236459.1824721097400.671591741425441633525255DRYH
2023-08-19 00:00:06FORECAST20233294462.83450.57656.70500.062992160.062992160.060.12299216FF30.834610.834236459.1824721097400.614974068690071633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:09FORECAST20233294461.39449.89255.64300.086614220.086614220.060.14661422FF29.394602.394236459.1824721097400.559976127383071633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233294459.48649.62254.55400.11811030.11811030.060.1781103FF27.486602.486236459.1824721097400.485464306604741623525250DRYMH
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233294460.8947.67854.28400.129921330.169921330.060.22992133FF28.89603.89236459.1824721097400.540391225583541633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 08:00:04FORECAST20233294460.45847.26453.86100.082677210.092677210.060.15267721FF28.458609.458236459.1824721097400.523523941839771633525255DRYH
2023-08-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233294466.50653.660.0530000.060.06FF34.506613.506236459.1824721097400.743087280567621643515230DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233294466.79453.58260.1880000.060.06FF34.794615.794236459.1824721097400.7521203015231643515230DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233294466.3853.74460.06200.055118140.055118140.060.11511814FF34.38617.38236459.1824721097400.739082223662621643515230DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:03FORECAST20233294460.29647.87654.08600.125984320.125984320.060.18598432FF28.296612.296236459.1824721097400.517186187582341633525255DRYH
2023-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233294465.0349.44257.23600.07874020.07874020.060.1387402FF33.03614.03236459.1824721097400.694253972765771633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:07FORECAST20233294464.68850.77457.73100.07874020.07874020.060.1387402FF32.688611.688236459.1824721097400.682378751163131633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20233294461.2549.5555.400.122047310.122047310.060.18204731FF29.25612.25236459.1824721097400.554393261287051633525255DRYH
2023-08-17 00:00:05FORECAST20233294465.42651.47658.4510000.060.06FF33.426613.426236459.1824721097400.707752908289381643515230DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:07FORECAST20233294466.59652.37659.4860000.060.06FF34.596625.596236459.1824721097400.745928352832671643515230DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:06FORECAST20233294468.48653.5160.9980000.20.2FF36.486607.486236459.1824721097400.801604974096941643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233294470.1645.62657.893000.120.320.44FF38.16620.16236459.1824721097400.844192624681316435251120DRYVH
2023-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20233294468.1844.85256.5160000.320.32FF36.18615.18236459.1824721097400.793124119820991643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 04:00:10FORECAST20233294470.17846.88658.5320000.070.07FF38.178621.178236459.1824721097400.844615191858941643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233294450.34244.67247.507000.130.060.19FF18.342592.342236459.1824721097400.175038844674961613425240DRYM
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233294452.98851.2652.124000.130.060.19FF20.988592.988236459.1824721097400.249988200532041623425245DRYM
2023-08-15 16:00:05FORECAST20233294456.71448.84852.7810000.060.06FF24.714584.714236459.1824721097400.378799488857071623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233294451.96250.28851.125000.010.060.07FF19.962577.962236459.1824721097400.219082183942231613415220DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233294457.41654.42855.922000.030.060.09FF25.416584.416236459.1824721097400.405280103496321623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:13FORECAST20233294457.93856.0356.984000.140.340.48FF25.938596.938236459.1824721097400.4252633187061623425245DRYM