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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, August 24, 2023

[ Wednesday, August 23, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, August 25, 2023 ]

DAY 328 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/25/2023 04:00:04 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 69.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.55°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.777
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 610

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.12 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.12 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 235
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 458.65 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 43

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-25 04:00:04OBSERVATION20233284369.0000846.0999457.550010000.120.12FF37.00008610.00008235458.65434269338 00.7771957814222816 43515160DRYH
2023-08-25 00:00:01FORECAST20233284364.74243.30454.0230000.120.12FF32.742605.742236459.1824721097400.648092900864751633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-24 12:00:01FORECAST20233284367.8244.90656.3630000.120.12FF35.82608.82236459.1824721097400.744318839678871643515230DRYL
2023-08-24 08:00:01FORECAST20233284365.3943.2554.320000.120.12FF33.39606.39236459.1824721097400.669449363326021633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-24 04:00:06FORECAST20233284365.49842.51254.0050000.120.12FF33.498606.498236459.1824721097400.672958053447271633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-24 00:00:02FORECAST20233284365.46242.85454.1580000.120.12FF33.462605.462235458.6543426933800.671790167179621633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 20:00:02FORECAST20233284366.07444.36655.220000.120.12FF34.074606.074235458.6543426933800.691407890759331633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 16:00:01FORECAST20233284366.4744.40255.4360000.120.12FF34.47606.47235458.6543426933800.703821335999591643515230DRYL
2023-08-23 12:00:03FORECAST20233284366.9243.95255.4360000.120.12FF34.92606.92235458.6543426933800.717642914659141643515230DRYL
2023-08-23 08:00:03FORECAST20233284366.03843.89854.9680000.120.12FF34.038607.038235458.6543426933800.690268183827631633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 04:00:06FORECAST20233284365.53443.55654.5450000.120.12FF33.534606.534235458.6543426933800.674124249576711633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-23 00:00:03FORECAST20233284366.88445.12256.0030000.120.12FF34.884604.884235458.6543426933800.716548681538741643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 20:00:02FORECAST20233284366.2944.09655.1930000.120.12FF34.29605.29235458.6543426933800.698207195196391633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 16:00:03FORECAST20233284366.8344.67255.7510000.120.12FF34.83606.83235458.6543426933800.714903535037491643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:03FORECAST20233284365.7544.22254.9860000.120.12FF33.75604.75235458.6543426933800.681085393076411633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 08:00:03FORECAST20233284365.64243.82654.7340000.120.12FF33.642603.642235458.6543426933800.677612600264291633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-22 04:00:06FORECAST20233284367.60445.71656.660000.120.12FF35.604608.604235458.6543426933800.738038523325371643515230DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:03FORECAST20233284367.47845.51856.4980000.120.12FF35.478609.478235458.6543426933800.734338868700451643515230DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:03FORECAST20233284366.5645.75256.1560000.120.12FF34.56607.56235458.6543426933800.706610338663551643515230DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:02FORECAST20233284366.41644.38455.40000.120.12FF34.416606.416235458.6543426933800.702142123411061643515230DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:03FORECAST20233284367.1945.44656.3180000.120.12FF35.19609.19235458.6543426933800.725784313358821643515230DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:03FORECAST20233284368.79246.18457.4880000.120.12FF36.792612.792235458.6543426933800.771579403304891643515160DRYH
2023-08-21 04:00:08FORECAST20233284365.73246.6756.2010000.120.12FF33.732605.732235458.6543426933800.680507685573391633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233284365.69643.95254.8240000.120.12FF33.696601.696235458.6543426933800.679350957465631633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233284365.98443.6154.7970000.120.12FF33.984603.984235458.6543426933800.688555194081661633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:11:01FORECAST20233284365.91244.655.2560000.120.12FF33.912603.912235458.6543426933800.686264853660881633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:13:33FORECAST20233284366.16444.97855.5710000.120.12FF34.164606.164235458.6543426933800.694249091174991633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 08:04:24FORECAST20233284365.51646.00455.76000.020.120.14FF33.516605.516235458.6543426933800.673541363387441633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:09FORECAST20233284366.2944.99655.6430000.120.12FF34.29609.29235458.6543426933800.698207195196391633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:08FORECAST20233284367.13645.2356.1830000.120.12FF35.136608.136235458.6543426933800.724165337616171643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:03FORECAST20233284368.14445.46456.8040000.120.12FF36.144612.144235458.6543426933800.753589986141171643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 16:00:04FORECAST20233284367.83846.29257.0650000.120.12FF35.838613.838235458.6543426933800.744838632600321643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:06FORECAST20233284368.57647.85858.21700.035433090.035433090.120.15543309FF36.576615.576235458.6543426933800.765666178827441643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 08:00:04FORECAST20233284367.11846.65256.8850000.120.12FF35.118609.118235458.6543426933800.723624638519871643515230DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:08FORECAST20233284365.9347.62456.77700.074803190.074803190.120.19480319FF33.93606.93235458.6543426933800.686838116159341633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:05FORECAST20233284366.21846.56256.390000.120.12FF34.218609.218235458.6543426933800.695948235617791633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:09FORECAST20233284366.07446.63456.3540000.120.12FF34.074602.074235458.6543426933800.691407890759331633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:05FORECAST20233284364.86846.5855.7240000.120.12FF32.868603.868235458.6543426933800.652284889075961633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233284362.2447.2154.72500.03937010.03937010.120.1593701FF30.24604.24235458.6543426933800.561747439943091633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233284363.60847.64255.62500.011811030.011811030.120.13181103FF31.608609.608235458.6543426933800.609608778333231633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233284366.00248.12857.0650000.120.12FF34.002608.002235458.6543426933800.689126646412171633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:04FORECAST20233284368.21647.357.7580000.120.12FF36.216610.216235458.6543426933800.755625534434461643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 20:00:05FORECAST20233284368.3646.86857.6140000.120.12FF36.36612.36235458.6543426933800.759669339627481643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 16:00:03FORECAST20233284366.18246.41856.30000.120.12FF34.182613.182235458.6543426933800.694815939503571633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233284366.50647.35456.930000.120.12FF34.506609.506235458.6543426933800.704938394995931643515230DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:07FORECAST20233284365.62449.29857.4610000.120.12FF33.624607.624235458.6543426933800.677032281932741633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:12FORECAST20233284364.11249.80256.9570000.120.12FF32.112612.112235458.6543426933800.626871277061631633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:05FORECAST20233284369.38651.11660.2510000.120.12FF37.386609.386235458.6543426933800.787401560169031643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 20:00:07FORECAST20233284370.26851.9861.1240000.120.12FF38.268620.268235458.6543426933800.809676899721241643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 16:00:06FORECAST20233284366.86648.16457.5150000.260.26FF34.866599.866235458.6543426933800.716000804652831643515230DRYL
2023-08-16 12:00:04FORECAST20233284370.39451.65661.025000.120.380.5FF38.394611.394235458.6543426933800.8127380390530916435251120DRYVH
2023-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20233284368.34250.01859.180000.380.38FF36.342608.342235458.6543426933800.759165862688781643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 04:00:10FORECAST20233284368.25250.8159.5310000.130.13FF36.252612.252235458.6543426933800.756639905360171643515160DRYH
2023-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233284363.73447.94855.84100.133858340.133858340.120.25385834FF31.734602.734235458.6543426933800.613946194543241633525255DRYH
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233284365.22850.39657.81200.133858340.133858340.120.25385834FF33.228601.228235458.6543426933800.664158388161671633525255DRYH
2023-08-15 16:00:05FORECAST20233284363.98643.53853.7620000.120.12FF31.986588.986235458.6543426933800.622577946305881633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233284363.2343.66453.447000.010.120.13FF31.23587.23235458.6543426933800.596516509121191633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233284368.8145.06856.939000.030.120.15FF36.81587.81235458.6543426933800.772068365118371643415155DRYH
2023-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20233284374.08450.77462.42900.074803190.144803190.40.54480319FF42.084600.084235458.6543426933800.8887372879718816535251130DRYVH
2023-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233284359.75648.21853.9870000.480.48FF27.756571.756235458.6543426933800.472989917566181623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 20:00:05FORECAST20233284360.2648.18254.2210000.470.47FF28.26570.26235458.6543426933800.491033415470721623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233284349.6441.12645.38300.011811030.011811030.140.15181103FF17.64547.64235458.6543426933800.164358795561591613415220DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:05FORECAST20233284351.78248.2950.0360000.910.91FF19.782562.782235458.6543426933800.21646898753781613415220DRYL
2023-08-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233284357.32653.97855.6520000.680.68FF25.326576.326235458.6543426933800.387415207315061623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20233284352.21451.63851.926000.070.120.19FF20.214572.214235458.6543426933800.228029158521341613415220DRYL