MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 22, 2023

[ Monday, August 21, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 23, 2023 ]

DAY 326 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/23/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 55.48°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 41.49°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 48.48°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.274
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 23
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 608

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 233
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.59 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 41

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-23 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233264155.4799241.4899648.484940000.240.24FF23.47992608.47992233457.5920440763 00.2735522655232216 23515225DRYL
2023-08-23 00:00:01FORECAST20233264150.8138.58844.6990000.240.24FF18.81603.81234458.1242025673100.137119066770751613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 12:00:02FORECAST20233264151.51238.55245.0320000.240.24FF19.512604.512234458.1242025673100.153988658997711613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 08:00:01FORECAST20233264151.15237.86844.510000.240.24FF19.152604.152234458.1242025673100.145173620186581613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 04:00:06FORECAST20233264152.68238.80445.7430000.240.24FF20.682605.682234458.1242025673100.185026140974331613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:02FORECAST20233264153.76239.07446.4180000.240.24FF21.762606.762233457.592044076300.216880372001711613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 20:00:02FORECAST20233264153.49238.89446.1930000.240.24FF21.492607.492233457.592044076300.208633696632651613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 16:00:01FORECAST20233264152.41238.33645.3740000.240.24FF20.412606.412233457.592044076300.177540177407851613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233264152.80840.11846.4630000.240.24FF20.808606.808233457.592044076300.188585572788221613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233264153.49239.52446.5080000.240.24FF21.492608.492233457.592044076300.208633696632651613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20233264152.39440.0146.2020000.240.24FF20.394606.394233457.592044076300.177047987864761613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:03FORECAST20233264151.24238.2144.7260000.240.24FF19.242602.242233457.592044076300.147344967641251613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:03FORECAST20233264151.58437.86844.7260000.240.24FF19.584603.584233457.592044076300.155793186524761613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:04:15FORECAST20233264152.8839.09245.9860000.240.24FF20.88604.88233457.592044076300.190638316944341613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:06:44FORECAST20233264153.97839.09246.5350000.240.24FF21.978605.978233457.592044076300.223611044742721613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 08:02:07FORECAST20233264153.94240.22647.0840000.240.24FF21.942605.942233457.592044076300.222481100675891613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:08FORECAST20233264153.97837.95845.9680000.240.24FF21.978606.978233457.592044076300.223611044742721613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:06FORECAST20233264153.11438.42645.770000.240.24FF21.114605.114233457.592044076300.197403700307141613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20233264154.12239.41646.7690000.240.24FF22.122608.122233457.592044076300.228163257355721613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233264154.66239.12846.8950000.240.24FF22.662608.662233457.592044076300.245689198879311613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:05FORECAST20233264155.05839.36247.210000.240.24FF23.058608.058233457.592044076300.258986403393731623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20233264153.92438.6646.2920000.240.24FF21.924603.924233457.592044076300.221917349728071613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20233264154.06837.99446.0310000.240.24FF22.068603.068233457.592044076300.226450111083661613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:05FORECAST20233264154.96839.23647.1020000.240.24FF22.968604.968233457.592044076300.255932015415481623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:08FORECAST20233264154.44638.5746.5080000.240.24FF22.446598.446233457.592044076300.238593501683141613415220DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:04FORECAST20233264153.29438.26445.7790000.240.24FF21.294601.294233457.592044076300.202705130822261613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233264153.07838.69645.8870000.240.24FF21.078603.078233457.592044076300.196353543679331613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233264154.8638.91246.8860000.240.24FF22.86606.86233457.592044076300.252291680638961623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:07FORECAST20233264154.80639.32647.0660000.240.24FF22.806601.806233457.592044076300.250481789175061623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233264156.69643.26849.9820000.240.24FF24.696603.696233457.592044076300.317668118889541623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233264156.55243.55650.0540000.240.24FF24.552605.552233457.592044076300.31228945916251623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233264157.1142.94450.0270000.240.24FF25.11608.11233457.592044076300.333344106293821623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233264157.23645.80651.5210000.240.24FF25.236607.236233457.592044076300.338175024853081623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:06FORECAST20233264157.9247.2152.5650000.240.24FF25.92604.92233457.592044076300.364848696999741623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20233264161.48449.1955.3370000.240.24FF29.484608.484233457.592044076300.511651805386111633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233264161.50246.05853.780000.240.24FF29.502595.502233457.592044076300.512406506743391633415225DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233264163.57247.7555.6610000.240.24FF31.572605.572233457.592044076300.598224690859221633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:05FORECAST20233264160.29643.62851.962000.140.240.38FF28.296593.296233457.592044076300.461878709492321623425245DRYM
2023-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233264162.92448.1155.517000.260.240.5FF30.924596.924233457.592044076300.571667171172391633425250DRYMH
2023-08-16 08:00:04FORECAST20233264162.99647.80455.4000.260.240.5FF30.996597.996233457.592044076300.574636429451141633425250DRYMH
2023-08-16 04:00:10FORECAST20233264164.92247.85856.39000.010.240.25FF32.922598.922233457.592044076300.651991370630971633415225DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233264166.21845.96856.0930000.240.24FF34.218597.218233457.592044076300.700895044520581643415227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233264168.23444.38456.3090000.240.24FF36.234592.234233457.592044076300.770040637869231643415155DRYH
2023-08-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233264162.1543.82652.9880000.240.24FF30.15586.15233457.592044076300.53952523273641633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233264165.62444.3354.9770000.240.24FF33.624580.624233457.592044076300.678861202288121633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:05FORECAST20233264164.99444.52854.7610000.240.24FF32.994575.994233457.592044076300.654785515968481633415225DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20233264163.73445.28454.509000.280.240.52FF31.734578.734233457.592044076300.604798838158921633425250DRYMH
2023-08-15 00:00:04FORECAST20233264160.94442.69251.818000.360.240.6FF28.944566.944233457.592044076300.489003513350421623425245DRYM
2023-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233264161.44842.65652.052000.350.240.59FF29.448565.448233457.592044076300.510142280198781633425250DRYMH
2023-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233264161.26842.42251.845000.020.240.26FF29.268557.268233457.592044076300.502592907409071633415225DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233264158.7340.67649.703000.790.241.03FF26.73566.73233457.592044076300.397293182337311623435267.5DRYH
2023-08-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233264161.50242.63852.07000.560.240.8FF29.502566.502233457.592044076300.512406506743391633435275DRYVH
2023-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20233264153.2442.29647.76800.062992160.062992160.240.30299216FF21.24575.24233457.592044076300.201105855543591613415220DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233264157.9247.67852.7990000.240.24FF25.92580.92233457.592044076300.364848696999741623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:05FORECAST20233264158.98248.36253.6720000.240.24FF26.982586.982233457.592044076300.407545698407241623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:05FORECAST20233264158.11846.61652.36700.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF26.118583.118233457.592044076300.372700636546071623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233264167.13641.6354.38300.102362260.392362260.240.63236226FF35.136597.136233457.592044076300.733525101498451643425255DRYH
2023-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233264167.20841.46854.33800.114173290.424173290.240.66417329FF35.208589.208233457.592044076300.736006197765081643425255DRYH
2023-08-13 04:00:10FORECAST20233264166.99247.2157.10100.149606380.479606380.240.71960638FF34.992582.992233457.592044076300.728527820683631643425255DRYH
2023-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20233264150.32444.18647.255000.10.240.34FF18.324561.324233457.592044076300.126205741861531613425240DRYM
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233264152.2545.3248.785000.090.240.33FF20.25567.25233457.592044076300.17314148399511613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233264144.79842.09843.448000.170.240.41FF12.798560.798233457.592044076300.0420853747824191613425240DRYM
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233264150.37847.1248.7490000.240.24FF18.378557.378233457.592044076300.127387626259041613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:08FORECAST20233264151.74648.90250.3240000.240.24FF19.746561.746233457.592044076300.159904016596351613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:13FORECAST20233264148.34447.22847.786000.010.240.25FF16.344547.344233457.592044076300.0880228840153341613415220DRYL