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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 21, 2023

[ Sunday, August 20, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 22, 2023 ]

DAY 325 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/22/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.73°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 45.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.96°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.469
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 620

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 232
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 457.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 40

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-22 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233254060.7299845.1900452.960010000.240.24FF28.72998619.72998232457.05785953596 00.4687667481868916 23515225DRYL
2023-08-22 00:00:01FORECAST20233254061.01645.91453.4650000.240.24FF29.016620.016233457.592044076300.479772159960821623515225DRYL
2023-08-21 12:00:02FORECAST20233254062.04245.19453.6180000.240.24FF30.042621.042233457.592044076300.519317702734211633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 08:00:02FORECAST20233254063.10447.51655.310000.240.24FF31.104622.104233457.592044076300.560046631462161633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 04:00:07FORECAST20233254062.02446.72454.3740000.240.24FF30.024621.024233457.592044076300.518624421528531633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:02FORECAST20233254062.52845.78854.1580000.240.24FF30.528617.528232457.0578595359600.538007367211451633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 20:00:02FORECAST20233254063.4145.7754.590000.240.24FF31.41619.41232457.0578595359600.571684139775211633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 16:00:14FORECAST20233254063.08645.80654.4460000.240.24FF31.086619.086232457.0578595359600.559360351919041633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:03:53FORECAST20233254063.24845.9554.5990000.240.24FF31.248619.248232457.0578595359600.565530204912061633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 08:01:08FORECAST20233254062.58246.45454.5180000.240.24FF30.582618.582232457.0578595359600.540079583905971633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:07FORECAST20233254062.6945.6854.1850000.240.24FF30.69619.69232457.0578595359600.544220697242511633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:06FORECAST20233254062.4245.21253.8160000.240.24FF30.42619.42232457.0578595359600.53385989326691633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 20:00:02FORECAST20233254063.69846.4955.0940000.240.24FF31.698620.698232457.0578595359600.582580622942731633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 16:00:03FORECAST20233254063.4146.34654.8780000.240.24FF31.41621.41232457.0578595359600.571684139775211633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:04FORECAST20233254063.08646.05854.5720000.240.24FF31.086620.086232457.0578595359600.559360351919041633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20233254061.8846.34654.1130000.240.24FF29.88616.88232457.0578595359600.513076319946321633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20233254059.75644.81652.2860000.240.24FF27.756615.756232457.0578595359600.431518667281621623515225DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:04FORECAST20233254059.52244.07851.80000.240.24FF27.522616.522232457.0578595359600.422647135511741623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:08FORECAST20233254058.40644.27651.3410000.240.24FF26.406611.406232457.0578595359600.380947991720361623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:04FORECAST20233254060.5344.22252.3760000.240.24FF28.53614.53232457.0578595359600.461085613989071623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233254062.11445.2353.6720000.240.24FF30.114617.114232457.0578595359600.522090222386461633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233254062.56446.02254.2930000.240.24FF30.564618.564232457.0578595359600.539388963146911633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233254061.68245.42853.5550000.240.24FF29.682613.682232457.0578595359600.505443765204461633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233254063.21248.4755.8410000.240.24FF31.212614.212232457.0578595359600.564160450362071633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233254064.56249.96457.2630000.240.24FF32.562615.562232457.0578595359600.614860080304361633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233254064.99449.56857.2810000.240.24FF32.994617.994232457.0578595359600.630721037218821633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:04FORECAST20233254064.74248.57856.660000.240.24FF32.742616.742232457.0578595359600.62149390038051633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:05FORECAST20233254065.0349.62257.3260000.240.24FF33.03614.03232457.0578595359600.632033216592771633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20233254064.68850.19857.4430000.240.24FF32.688613.688232457.0578595359600.619507409977041633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:04FORECAST20233254062.20449.38855.7960000.240.24FF30.204601.204232457.0578595359600.525554353446141633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233254062.97850.37856.6780000.240.24FF30.978608.978232457.0578595359600.555239001012351633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:04FORECAST20233254059.37848.99254.18500.141732360.141732360.240.38173236FF27.378600.378232457.0578595359600.417206867901611623525250DRYMH
2023-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233254059.07248.66853.8700.255905650.255905650.240.49590565FF27.072601.072232457.0578595359600.405700015110831623525250DRYMH
2023-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233254059.10847.55253.3300.263779670.263779670.240.50377967FF27.108602.108232457.0578595359600.407049746449581623525250DRYMH
2023-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20233254060.7146.52653.61800.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF28.71600.71232457.0578595359600.467998755551611623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:04FORECAST20233254060.09845.89652.9970000.240.24FF28.098598.098232457.0578595359600.444545901624531623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233254057.81246.2252.0160000.240.24FF25.812590.812232457.0578595359600.359272179641921623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233254054.53643.44848.9920000.240.24FF22.536590.536232457.0578595359600.249181888235051623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:04FORECAST20233254054.80641.12647.9660000.240.24FF22.806581.806232457.0578595359600.257534347118541623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233254053.640.08246.8410000.240.24FF21.6577.6232457.0578595359600.221375709649851613415220DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:12FORECAST20233254054.19443.64648.9200.283464720.283464720.240.52346472FF22.194582.194232457.0578595359600.238812199865691613425240DRYM
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233254052.46639.88446.17500.362204920.362204920.240.60220492FF20.466573.466232457.0578595359600.190188540516381613425240DRYM
2023-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233254052.66441.34247.00300.35433090.35433090.240.5943309FF20.664570.664232457.0578595359600.195430875790511613425240DRYM
2023-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233254050.82840.69445.76100.019685050.019685050.240.25968505FF18.828562.828232457.0578595359600.150189015085691613415220DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233254049.143.10646.10300.586614490.786614490.241.02661449FF17.1575.1232457.0578595359600.114521776049161613435260DRYH
2023-08-14 08:00:04FORECAST20233254051.81844.13247.97500.562992430.562992430.240.80299243FF19.818571.818232457.0578595359600.173642927616851613435260DRYH
2023-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20233254055.52644.474500000.240.24FF23.526588.526232457.0578595359600.280496868723441623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233254063.98646.36455.1750000.240.24FF31.986589.986232457.0578595359600.593414062092991633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233254064.72447.13855.9310000.240.24FF32.724594.724232457.0578595359600.620832090526751633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233254063.46447.0355.2470000.240.24FF31.464592.464232457.0578595359600.573731660799671633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233254058.15446.86852.51100.291338740.291338740.240.53133874FF26.154597.154232457.0578595359600.371701999088051623425245DRYM
2023-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233254058.58646.56252.57400.307086780.307086780.240.54708678FF26.586588.586232457.0578595359600.387594479182531623425245DRYM
2023-08-13 04:00:10FORECAST20233254061.10650.32455.71500.326771830.326771830.240.56677183FF29.106583.106232457.0578595359600.483238750161751623425245DRYM
2023-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20233254056.3942.99849.69400.098425250.098425250.240.33842525FF24.39578.39232457.0578595359600.309294563021261623425245DRYM
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233254058.3743.91651.14300.094488240.094488240.240.33448824FF26.37582.37232457.0578595359600.379622827771231623425245DRYM
2023-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233254055.61641.84648.73100.129921330.169921330.240.40992133FF23.616582.616232457.0578595359600.283435290028921623425245DRYM
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233254062.65440.13651.3950000.240.24FF30.654573.654232457.0578595359600.542840837280011633415225DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:08FORECAST20233254062.58240.92851.7550000.240.24FF30.582576.582232457.0578595359600.540079583905971633415225DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:13FORECAST20233254058.4638.08448.272000.010.240.25FF26.46566.46232457.0578595359600.382938353115481623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20233254043.30435.43839.371000.010.240.25FF11.304579.304232457.0578595359600.0388200983292661613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20233254042.69235.43839.065000.020.240.26FF10.692586.692232457.0578595359600.0340795550364521613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233254046.81435.04240.9280000.240.24FF14.814588.814232457.0578595359600.077195958210081613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233254039.95635.6937.8230000.240.24FF7.956572.956232457.0578595359600.0183195127203741613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 08:00:07FORECAST20233254041.30637.43639.3710000.240.24FF9.306577.306232457.0578595359600.0250819378756961613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 04:00:10FORECAST20233254039.16438.6638.9120000.240.24FF7.164566.164232457.0578595359600.0151262214333661613415220DRYL