MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 20, 2023

[ Saturday, August 19, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, August 21, 2023 ]

DAY 324 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/21/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.94°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.72°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.33°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.692
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 627

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 231
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 456.52 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 39

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 27.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-21 04:00:06OBSERVATION20233243967.9400654.7199661.330010000.240.24FF35.94006626.94006231456.52164123267 00.6915661025737916 33515227.5DRYL
2023-08-21 00:00:01FORECAST20233243964.446.2255.310000.240.24FF32.4623.4232457.0578595359600.568387429937281633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 12:00:33FORECAST20233243964.8548.34456.5970000.240.24FF32.85623.85232457.0578595359600.584713517692331633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 08:00:13FORECAST20233243965.42648.81257.1190000.240.24FF33.426624.426232457.0578595359600.60539574474781633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 04:00:07FORECAST20233243966.03848.54257.290000.240.24FF34.038625.038232457.0578595359600.627048502522821633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-20 00:00:04FORECAST20233243968.52249.35258.9370000.240.24FF36.522624.522231456.5216412326700.710285909201711643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 20:00:01FORECAST20233243969.85449.1959.5220000.240.24FF37.854624.854231456.5216412326700.751005669567071643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 16:00:01FORECAST20233243970.66449.33459.9990000.240.24FF38.664625.664231456.5216412326700.774193433267481643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 12:00:03FORECAST20233243969.99851.49460.7460000.240.24FF37.998624.998231456.5216412326700.755218252902191643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 08:00:02FORECAST20233243968.8151.4460.1250000.240.24FF36.81622.81231456.5216412326700.719348914144941643515160DRYH
2023-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20233243967.62250.86459.2430000.240.24FF35.622623.622231456.5216412326700.681115995863361633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:04FORECAST20233243968.5451.78260.1610000.240.24FF36.54624.54231456.5216412326700.710856345614211643515160DRYH
2023-08-18 20:00:08FORECAST20233243967.89251.45859.6750000.240.24FF35.892620.892231456.5216412326700.689996688730671633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:03FORECAST20233243968.57649.96459.270000.240.24FF36.576621.576231456.5216412326700.71199563300091643515160DRYH
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233243968.73851.92660.3320000.240.24FF36.738622.738231456.5216412326700.717096052441881643515160DRYH
2023-08-18 08:00:03FORECAST20233243968.6351.40460.0170000.240.24FF36.63623.63231456.5216412326700.713700584178561643515160DRYH
2023-08-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233243968.12651.06259.5940000.240.24FF36.126620.126231456.5216412326700.697604952936521633515155DRYH
2023-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233243968.77451.18859.9810000.240.24FF36.774618.774231456.5216412326700.718223567269791643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 20:00:04FORECAST20233243969.1750.64859.9090000.240.24FF37.17619.17231456.5216412326700.730481352135591643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233243969.78250.64860.2150000.240.24FF37.782620.782231456.5216412326700.748885023007911643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20233243969.45851.13460.2960000.240.24FF37.458620.458231456.5216412326700.73922529371071643515160DRYH
2023-08-17 08:00:04FORECAST20233243967.83851.1759.5040000.240.24FF35.838616.838231456.5216412326700.688229168032381633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20233243967.29851.02659.1620000.240.24FF35.298617.298231456.5216412326700.670320766722641633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233243965.82248.8357.3260000.240.24FF33.822606.822231456.5216412326700.619448149062071633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233243968.12648.93858.5320000.240.24FF36.126614.126231456.5216412326700.697604952936521633515155DRYH
2023-08-16 16:00:04FORECAST20233243964.29248.09256.1920000.240.24FF32.292609.292231456.5216412326700.564450617612441633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233243964.90448.88456.8940000.240.24FF32.904609.904231456.5216412326700.586663437593551633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233243964.25648.50656.3810000.240.24FF32.256611.256231456.5216412326700.563136906292271633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20233243963.547.7555.6250000.240.24FF31.5607.5231456.5216412326700.53541017610481633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233243963.01446.88654.950000.240.24FF31.014606.014231456.5216412326700.517485915877341633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:04FORECAST20233243962.40248.3855.3910000.240.24FF30.402601.402231456.5216412326700.494868712687141623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233243962.54641.68452.1150000.240.24FF30.546603.546231456.5216412326700.500191617592791633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233243957.0024149.0010000.240.24FF25.002595.002231456.5216412326700.303895976927051623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233243957.21841.23449.2260000.240.24FF25.218592.218231456.5216412326700.31093128392231623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:11FORECAST20233243956.69643.6150.1530000.240.24FF24.696595.696231456.5216412326700.294052738297091623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233243956.04841.66648.8570000.240.24FF24.048589.048231456.5216412326700.273709477689881623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233243955.7642.8949.3250000.240.24FF23.76585.76231456.5216412326700.26489670606381623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 16:00:04FORECAST20233243955.00440.80247.9030000.240.24FF23.004580.004231456.5216412326700.242468723813971613415220DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:04FORECAST20233243957.50643.57450.5400.200787510.200787510.240.44078751FF25.506593.506231456.5216412326700.320419792747391623425245DRYM
2023-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233243955.65243.23249.4420000.240.24FF23.652587.652231456.5216412326700.261629448345681623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 04:00:08FORECAST20233243961.41243.62852.520000.240.24FF29.412601.412231456.5216412326700.458348585232451623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233243963.71641.21652.4660000.240.24FF31.716593.716231456.5216412326700.543355673515381633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233243964.29244.52854.410000.240.24FF32.292598.292231456.5216412326700.564450617612441633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233243964.43642.33253.3840000.240.24FF32.436597.436231456.5216412326700.569698212871831633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:04FORECAST20233243965.51648.79457.1550000.240.24FF33.516606.516231456.5216412326700.608602264784171633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-13 08:00:04FORECAST20233243965.6647.98456.8220000.240.24FF33.66597.66231456.5216412326700.613717300444811633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 04:00:10FORECAST20233243964.72445.69855.2110000.240.24FF32.724589.724231456.5216412326700.580155663931371633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20233243957.12843.2550.1890000.240.24FF25.128590.128231456.5216412326700.307991309259831623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233243958.56843.7951.1790000.240.24FF26.568591.568231456.5216412326700.356392426064311623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233243954.17643.98849.08200.03937010.03937010.240.2793701FF22.176595.176231456.5216412326700.219133130000291613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233243954.66240.15447.4080000.240.24FF22.662578.662231456.5216412326700.232670700340121613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:08FORECAST20233243954.33841.16247.750000.240.24FF22.338582.338231456.5216412326700.223594681833551613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20233243949.74837.79643.77200.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF17.748575.748231456.5216412326700.117866010769661613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20233243955.74241.52248.63200.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF23.742603.742231456.5216412326700.264350728336821623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20233243955.20242.51248.85700.023622060.023622060.240.26362206FF23.202612.202231456.5216412326700.248241664304841613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233243960.99844.79852.8980000.240.24FF28.998609.998231456.5216412326700.443162521779721623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233243956.44440.85648.650000.240.24FF24.444601.444231456.5216412326700.286058815419791623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 08:00:07FORECAST20233243957.27239.25448.2630000.240.24FF25.272604.272231456.5216412326700.312701090166081623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 04:00:10FORECAST20233243953.16838.55245.860000.240.24FF21.168595.168231456.5216412326700.192544075200761613415220DRYL
2023-08-11 00:00:05FORECAST20233243948.57841.3644.9690000.240.24FF16.578604.578231456.5216412326700.0977806949138371613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 20:00:06FORECAST20233243947.71441.3644.537000.010.240.25FF15.714604.714231456.5216412326700.0846409918993131613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 16:00:05FORECAST20233243948.50636.62642.566000.010.240.25FF16.506611.506231456.5216412326700.0966318633564011613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 12:00:09FORECAST20233243952.14246.4949.3160000.240.24FF20.142633.142231456.5216412326700.167603144452211613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233243952.14246.4949.3160000.240.24FF20.142629.142231456.5216412326700.167603144452211613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-10 04:00:10FORECAST20233243947.33645.15846.247000.010.240.25FF15.336621.336231456.5216412326700.0793263728740061613515222.5DRYL