MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Wednesday, August 2, 2023

[ Tuesday, August 1, 2023 | Index | Today | Thursday, August 3, 2023 ]

DAY 306 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/03/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 66.97°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 48.58°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.78°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.608
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 35
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 574

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.30 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.30 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 213
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 446.51 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 21

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 3
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 22.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-03 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233062166.9700448.5799857.775010000.30.3FF34.97004573.97004213446.51296670182 00.6077019521198916 32415222.5DRYL
2023-08-03 00:00:01FORECAST20233062164.86844.6954.7790000.30.3FF32.868571.868214447.0871457971400.50967715568161632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 12:00:01FORECAST20233062163.2345.51854.3740000.30.3FF31.23570.23214447.0871457971400.432571753009481622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 08:00:01FORECAST20233062163.5945.08654.3380000.30.3FF31.59570.59214447.0871457971400.449401620147471622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 04:00:06FORECAST20233062162.61844.94253.780000.30.3FF30.618569.618214447.0871457971400.40425541031631622415220DRYL
2023-08-02 00:00:02FORECAST20233062163.33844.31253.8250000.30.3FF31.338566.338213446.5129667018200.43760931094551622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:02FORECAST20233062163.33844.31253.8250000.30.3FF31.338568.338213446.5129667018200.43760931094551622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:02FORECAST20233062163.12245.66254.3920000.30.3FF31.122568.122213446.5129667018200.427545130174591622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:03FORECAST20233062163.26646.18454.7250000.30.3FF31.266568.266213446.5129667018200.434249763508011622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:05FORECAST20233062163.17645.71654.4460000.30.3FF31.176568.176213446.5129667018200.430057024742781622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:12FORECAST20233062164.1345.30254.7160000.30.3FF32.13570.13213446.5129667018200.474808542835751622415220DRYL
2023-08-01 00:00:03FORECAST20233062163.33845.0554.1940000.30.3FF31.338565.338213446.5129667018200.43760931094551622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 20:00:03FORECAST20233062163.33843.73653.5370000.30.3FF31.338567.338213446.5129667018200.43760931094551622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 16:00:06FORECAST20233062162.645.0553.8250000.30.3FF30.6565.6213446.5129667018200.403429359629051622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 12:00:04FORECAST20233062162.72644.99653.8610000.30.3FF30.726564.726213446.5129667018200.409220557311521622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 08:00:05FORECAST20233062162.90645.28454.0950000.30.3FF30.906566.906213446.5129667018200.417527873289411622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 04:00:14FORECAST20233062162.36643.86253.1140000.30.3FF30.366564.366213446.5129667018200.392731156724511622415220DRYL
2023-07-31 00:00:05FORECAST20233062164.56245.33854.950000.30.3FF32.562563.562213446.5129667018200.495213157485551622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 20:00:05FORECAST20233062163.98645.48254.7340000.30.3FF31.986563.986213446.5129667018200.468019020527641622415220DRYL
2023-07-30 16:00:06FORECAST20233062165.33646.36455.850000.30.3FF33.336567.336213446.5129667018200.531767494815231632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 12:00:03FORECAST20233062164.68846.61655.6520000.30.3FF32.688565.688213446.5129667018200.501169243055421632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 08:00:03FORECAST20233062166.14646.34656.2460000.30.3FF34.146565.146213446.5129667018200.569732096501841632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 04:00:13FORECAST20233062166.66846.00456.3360000.30.3FF34.668566.668213446.5129667018200.593883012992461632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-30 00:00:03FORECAST20233062165.64245.82455.7330000.30.3FF33.642561.642213446.5129667018200.546162704165381632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 20:00:04FORECAST20233062167.20845.98656.5970000.30.3FF35.208564.208213446.5129667018200.618495203057081632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 16:00:06FORECAST20233062166.66845.91456.2910000.30.3FF34.668561.668213446.5129667018200.593883012992461632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 12:00:06FORECAST20233062166.12845.5955.8590000.30.3FF34.128557.128213446.5129667018200.568894085009981632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 08:00:04FORECAST20233062166.86645.84256.3540000.30.3FF34.866557.866213446.5129667018200.602956268518151632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 04:00:11FORECAST20233062167.65846.23856.9480000.30.3FF35.658564.658213446.5129667018200.638650135712951632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-29 00:00:05FORECAST20233062167.87446.00456.9390000.30.3FF35.874564.874213446.5129667018200.648193438575941632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 20:00:06FORECAST20233062166.05644.83455.4450000.30.3FF34.056565.056213446.5129667018200.565538973708751632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 16:00:07FORECAST20233062164.4947.71456.1020000.30.3FF32.49563.49213446.5129667018200.491810073904561622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 12:00:04FORECAST20233062164.50846.86855.6880000.30.3FF32.508564.508213446.5129667018200.492660798594841622415220DRYL
2023-07-28 08:00:04FORECAST20233062165.51646.18455.850000.30.3FF33.516568.516213446.5129667018200.540241516192221632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 04:00:08FORECAST20233062165.62445.21255.4180000.30.3FF33.624566.624213446.5129667018200.545317416930141632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-28 00:00:06FORECAST20233062163.53647.33655.4360000.30.3FF31.536558.536213446.5129667018200.446870567496231622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 20:00:03FORECAST20233062163.66247.4855.5710000.30.3FF31.662561.662213446.5129667018200.452779544269891622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 16:00:04FORECAST20233062163.1447.13855.1390000.30.3FF31.14562.14213446.5129667018200.428382107359811622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 12:00:04FORECAST20233062164.32846.90455.6160000.30.3FF32.328561.328213446.5129667018200.484155692025041622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 08:00:05FORECAST20233062164.02247.35455.6880000.30.3FF32.022558.022213446.5129667018200.469715606839481622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 04:00:08FORECAST20233062164.02245.37454.6980000.30.3FF32.022556.022213446.5129667018200.469715606839481622415220DRYL
2023-07-27 00:00:07FORECAST20233062166.2947.55256.9210000.30.3FF34.29554.29213446.5129667018200.57642457755251632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 20:00:03FORECAST20233062164.14846.56255.3550000.30.3FF32.148541.148213446.5129667018200.475657788482611622415220DRYL
2023-07-26 16:00:04FORECAST20233062167.56846.09456.8310000.30.3FF35.568556.568213446.5129667018200.634647759510871632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 12:00:05FORECAST20233062167.04649.158.0730000.30.3FF35.046554.046213446.5129667018200.611156751709741632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 08:00:07FORECAST20233062167.2847.98457.6320000.30.3FF35.28557.28213446.5129667018200.621743292373051632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-26 04:00:13FORECAST20233062172.28452.68262.4830000.30.3FF40.284565.284213446.5129667018200.816762526529381642415150DRYMH
2023-07-26 00:00:06FORECAST20233062175.93853.99664.9670000.240.24FF43.938580.938213446.5129667018200.9093175318021652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 20:00:07FORECAST20233062174.49855.14864.8230000.240.24FF42.498573.498213446.5129667018200.878124665930861652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 16:00:08FORECAST20233062174.78651.20662.9960000.240.24FF42.786578.786213446.5129667018200.884898115073571652415155DRYH
2023-07-25 12:00:04FORECAST20233062171.45646.47258.9640000.240.24FF39.456562.456213446.5129667018200.789573561796761642415150DRYMH
2023-07-25 08:00:06FORECAST20233062168.21645.89657.0560000.240.24FF36.216556.216213446.5129667018200.663112565576661632415145DRYM
2023-07-25 04:00:09FORECAST20233062168.95448.32658.640000.240.24FF36.954555.954213446.5129667018200.694421898055561632415145DRYM
2023-07-25 00:00:04FORECAST20233062173.83252.35863.0950000.320.32FF41.832584.832213446.5129667018200.861406087368511652415155DRYH
2023-07-24 20:00:05FORECAST20233062174.31851.90863.1130000.380.38FF42.318590.318213446.5129667018200.873752122289031652415155DRYH
2023-07-24 16:00:08FORECAST20233062176.94653.63665.2910000.350.35FF44.946583.946213446.5129667018200.927341151677481652415155DRYH
2023-07-24 12:00:04FORECAST20233062175.00253.47464.2380000.350.35FF43.002580.002213446.5129667018200.889800008442451652415155DRYH
2023-07-24 08:00:05FORECAST20233062167.85645.6856.7680000.360.36FF35.856580.856213446.5129667018200.647401620047671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 04:00:09FORECAST20233062167.85645.6856.7680000.360.36FF35.856580.856213446.5129667018200.647401620047671632415222.5DRYL
2023-07-24 00:00:07FORECAST20233062154.15845.6849.9190000.360.36FF22.158564.158213446.5129667018200.106523990691621612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 20:00:06FORECAST20233062154.15845.6849.9190000.360.36FF22.158563.158213446.5129667018200.106523990691621612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 16:00:05FORECAST20233062154.15845.6849.9190000.360.36FF22.158563.158213446.5129667018200.106523990691621612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 12:00:05FORECAST20233062149.42445.0547.2370000.380.38FF17.424550.424213446.5129667018200.0353184294982341612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 08:00:05FORECAST20233062149.87444.3347.1020000.360.36FF17.874534.874213446.5129667018200.0396932698100261612415217.5DRYL
2023-07-23 04:00:10FORECAST20233062160.4459.39659.9180000.360.36FF28.44555.44213446.5129667018200.308386625374981622415220DRYL