MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Saturday, August 19, 2023

[ Friday, August 18, 2023 | Index | Today | Sunday, August 20, 2023 ]

DAY 323 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/20/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 68.55°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 46.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 57.38°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.723
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 37
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 626

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 230
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.98 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 38

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 60.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-20 04:00:06OBSERVATION20233233868.5500846.2000257.375050000.240.24FF36.55008625.55008230455.98338142343 00.723401904532116 43515160DRYH
2023-08-20 00:00:02FORECAST20233233865.85844.67255.2650000.240.24FF33.858622.858231456.5216412326700.628539337621751633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 12:00:01FORECAST20233233864.97645.26655.1210000.240.24FF32.976621.976231456.5216412326700.595289331249081633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 08:00:01FORECAST20233233864.29244.38454.3380000.240.24FF32.292621.292231456.5216412326700.569007267364341633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 04:00:07FORECAST20233233865.69644.655.1480000.240.24FF33.696622.696231456.5216412326700.62249555584671633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:03FORECAST20233233867.78445.84256.8130000.240.24FF35.784622.784230455.9833814234300.697619748457451633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 20:00:02FORECAST20233233865.71445.35655.5350000.240.24FF33.714619.714230455.9833814234300.623168600712011633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 16:00:02FORECAST20233233865.98444.1555.0670000.240.24FF33.984619.984230455.9833814234300.633218339756771633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:03FORECAST20233233866.86646.05856.4620000.240.24FF34.866620.866230455.9833814234300.665385068193611633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233233866.81246.6756.7410000.240.24FF34.812621.812230455.9833814234300.663447312218781633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233233865.1246.68855.9040000.240.24FF33.12619.12230455.9833814234300.600772211322541633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:03FORECAST20233233865.17446.9456.0570000.240.24FF33.174617.174230455.9833814234300.602823241069441633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:03FORECAST20233233865.42646.59856.0120000.240.24FF33.426617.426230455.9833814234300.612356309402711633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:02FORECAST20233233866.14646.14856.1470000.240.24FF34.146618.146230455.9833814234300.639205160834891633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20233233865.6646.3155.9850000.240.24FF33.66617.66230455.9833814234300.621148351833271633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20233233865.2146.455.8050000.240.24FF33.21616.21230455.9833814234300.604189020382451633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:11FORECAST20233233865.28246.00455.6430000.240.24FF33.282617.282230455.9833814234300.606916729991971633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233233863.10443.59253.3480000.240.24FF31.104608.104230455.9833814234300.522693176660511633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233233863.84243.89853.870000.240.24FF31.842612.842230455.9833814234300.551540509357911633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:04FORECAST20233233862.58242.65652.6190000.240.24FF30.582611.582230455.9833814234300.502207865773011633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233233863.21242.87253.0420000.240.24FF31.212612.212230455.9833814234300.526925826214851633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233233863.7743.2553.510000.240.24FF31.77613.77230455.9833814234300.548735623698751633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20233233862.643.93453.2670000.240.24FF30.6610.6230455.9833814234300.502914663236671633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233233863.15844.56453.8610000.240.24FF31.158610.158230455.9833814234300.524809851426611633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20233233862.31245.2353.7710000.240.24FF30.312606.312230455.9833814234300.491606314575251623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233233862.7845.5954.1850000.240.24FF30.78607.78230455.9833814234300.509981768687721633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233233858.40643.1650.7830000.240.24FF26.406605.406230455.9833814234300.342552927342831623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233233858.58642.2650.4230000.240.24FF26.586601.586230455.9833814234300.34908642409971623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:11FORECAST20233233860.94445.48253.2130000.240.24FF28.944605.944230455.9833814234300.438137988984621623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233233858.4642.74650.6030000.240.24FF26.46600.46230455.9833814234300.344508146039021623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 20:00:04FORECAST20233233858.04643.77250.9090000.240.24FF26.046597.046230455.9833814234300.329627846960621623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233233855.7640.56848.1640000.240.24FF23.76591.76230455.9833814234300.252715417753261623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233233860.56641.05450.810000.240.24FF28.566602.566230455.9833814234300.423519491339371623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233233860.72840.56850.6480000.240.24FF28.728598.728230455.9833814234300.429772898328571623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233233862.72644.99653.8610000.240.24FF30.726606.726230455.9833814234300.507861865089741633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233233861.26845.08653.1770000.240.24FF29.268597.268230455.9833814234300.450736462779881623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233233861.9745.9553.960000.240.24FF29.97600.97230455.9833814234300.478187144628261623515225DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233233861.23246.54453.8880000.240.24FF29.232600.232230455.9833814234300.449333940452951623515225DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233233865.08448.4756.7770000.240.24FF33.084608.084230455.9833814234300.599403307659721633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233233863.5947.33655.4630000.240.24FF31.59598.59230455.9833814234300.541713059232931633415225DRYL
2023-08-13 04:00:09FORECAST20233233860.72844.6952.7090000.240.24FF28.728591.728230455.9833814234300.429772898328571623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20233233858.49645.66252.0790000.240.24FF26.496600.496230455.9833814234300.34581393968891623515225DRYL
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233233859.23444.07851.6560000.240.24FF27.234600.234230455.9833814234300.372966978358231623515225DRYL
2023-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233233859.6346.81453.2220000.240.24FF27.63607.63230455.9833814234300.38781160111521623515225DRYL
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233233858.11843.89851.0080000.240.24FF26.118591.118230455.9833814234300.332197260510711623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:08FORECAST20233233858.83845.51852.1780000.240.24FF26.838594.838230455.9833814234300.35830855544811623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20233233854.66242.20648.4340000.240.24FF22.662592.662230455.9833814234300.219445106128281613415220DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20233233859.5446.27452.9070000.240.24FF27.54614.54230455.9833814234300.384422520814131623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 20:00:04FORECAST20233233860.9847.60654.2930000.240.24FF28.98623.98230455.9833814234300.439534966699631623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233233862.18648.77655.4810000.240.24FF30.186616.186230455.9833814234300.486660497003181623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233233856.4844.34850.4140000.240.24FF24.48612.48230455.9833814234300.275891432837641623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 08:00:06FORECAST20233233856.46245.35650.9090000.240.24FF24.462614.462230455.9833814234300.275299565692711623515225DRYL
2023-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20233233852.7941.84647.3180000.240.24FF20.79608.79230455.9833814234300.168927672449681613515222.5DRYL
2023-08-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233233860.60249.56855.0850000.240.24FF28.602622.602230455.9833814234300.424907531740021623515225DRYL
2023-08-10 20:00:06FORECAST20233233860.4448.70454.572000.010.240.25FF28.44624.44230455.9833814234300.418668927589091623515225DRYL
2023-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20233233859.3649.11854.239000.010.240.25FF27.36630.36230455.9833814234300.377671028208631623515225DRYL
2023-08-10 12:00:09FORECAST20233233874.17454.19464.1840000.240.24FF42.174648.174230455.9833814234300.874272423966881653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233233874.17454.19464.1840000.240.24FF42.174644.174230455.9833814234300.874272423966881653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233233869.65648.5659.10800.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF37.656640.656230455.9833814234300.758613188774461643515160DRYH
2023-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20233233862.27658.1960.2330000.20.2FF30.276637.276230455.9833814234300.490193058872291623515225DRYL
2023-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST20233233862.29458.22660.260000.20.2FF30.294639.294230455.9833814234300.490899672443441623515225DRYL
2023-08-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233233860.27847.8454.0590000.20.2FF28.278624.278230455.9833814234300.412450709053221623515225DRYL
2023-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST20233233843.30442.83643.0700.102362260.192362260.20.39236226FF11.304572.304230455.9833814234300.0290828502909531613425240DRYM
2023-08-09 08:00:04FORECAST20233233843.30442.83643.0700.102362260.182362260.190.37236226FF11.304558.304230455.9833814234300.0290828502909531613425240DRYM
2023-08-09 04:00:09FORECAST20233233855.86854.57255.220000.180.18FF23.868594.868230455.9833814234300.256125376229821623415222.5DRYL