MOUNT RAINIER
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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 18, 2023

[ Thursday, August 17, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 19, 2023 ]

DAY 322 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/19/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 60.61°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 44.74°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 52.67°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.391
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 29
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 623

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 229
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 455.44 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 37

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 2
D1: 3
D2: 5
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 25.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-19 04:00:06OBSERVATION20233223760.6099244.7400452.674980000.240.24FF28.60992622.60992229455.44307233574 00.3908913348670616 23515225DRYL
2023-08-19 00:00:02FORECAST20233223758.96445.4152.1870000.240.24FF26.964620.964230455.9833814234300.329061652189181623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 12:00:02FORECAST20233223758.4646.2252.340000.240.24FF26.46620.46230455.9833814234300.310939924198111623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 08:00:02FORECAST20233223758.60447.06652.8350000.240.24FF26.604620.604230455.9833814234300.316073488320791623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 04:00:06FORECAST20233223758.31646.56252.4390000.240.24FF26.316620.316230455.9833814234300.305842860180561623515225DRYL
2023-08-18 00:00:02FORECAST20233223759.12646.23852.6820000.240.24FF27.126618.126229455.4430723357400.334975525160281623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 20:00:02FORECAST20233223758.74846.07652.4120000.240.24FF26.748617.748229455.4430723357400.321242732226491623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 16:00:01FORECAST20233223759.16246.54452.8530000.240.24FF27.162618.162229455.4430723357400.336295356356761623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 12:00:03FORECAST20233223759.30646.43652.8710000.240.24FF27.306618.306229455.4430723357400.341594732134181623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 08:00:03FORECAST20233223758.8247.04852.9340000.240.24FF26.82616.82229455.4430723357400.3238404720561623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 04:00:10FORECAST20233223758.5546.99452.7720000.240.24FF26.55617.55229455.4430723357400.314144176032741623515225DRYL
2023-08-17 00:00:03FORECAST20233223758.145.80651.9530000.240.24FF26.1611.1229455.4430723357400.298267444197431623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 20:00:06FORECAST20233223759.37846.14852.7630000.240.24FF27.378615.378229455.4430723357400.344256249583551623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 16:00:03FORECAST20233223758.65845.1451.8990000.240.24FF26.658614.658229455.4430723357400.318007818287581623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 12:00:03FORECAST20233223758.9145.91452.4120000.240.24FF26.91614.91229455.4430723357400.327099732049131623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 08:00:03FORECAST20233223759.16245.6852.4210000.240.24FF27.162616.162229455.4430723357400.336295356356761623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 04:00:09FORECAST20233223759.25245.53652.3940000.240.24FF27.252614.252229455.4430723357400.339603737926911623515225DRYL
2023-08-16 00:00:03FORECAST20233223760.06245.35652.7090000.240.24FF28.062613.062229455.4430723357400.369909349706431623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 20:00:03FORECAST20233223760.15246.36453.2580000.240.24FF28.152610.152229455.4430723357400.373331202643831623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 16:00:04FORECAST20233223760.9848.00254.4910000.240.24FF28.98610.98229455.4430723357400.405249262850341623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 12:00:03FORECAST20233223761.98847.28254.6350000.240.24FF29.988612.988229455.4430723357400.444953085454781623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 08:00:04FORECAST20233223760.7146.05853.3840000.240.24FF28.71608.71229455.4430723357400.394760365494721623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 04:00:10FORECAST20233223761.6148.18254.8960000.240.24FF29.61610.61229455.4430723357400.429976925376951623515225DRYL
2023-08-15 00:00:03FORECAST20233223760.56646.83253.6990000.240.24FF28.566607.566229455.4430723357400.389196793025411623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 20:00:03FORECAST20233223760.24247.35453.7980000.240.24FF28.242605.242229455.4430723357400.37676307028581623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 16:00:03FORECAST20233223757.0244.7850.90000.240.24FF25.02602.02229455.4430723357400.26173642524611623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 12:00:03FORECAST20233223760.69246.3153.5010000.240.24FF28.692607.692229455.4430723357400.394063718743381623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 08:00:03FORECAST20233223760.9845.80653.3930000.240.24FF28.98603.98229455.4430723357400.405249262850341623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 04:00:07FORECAST20233223763.15849.17256.1650000.240.24FF31.158610.158229455.4430723357400.491713337849951623515225DRYL
2023-08-14 00:00:04FORECAST20233223762.94248.05655.4990000.240.24FF30.942601.942229455.4430723357400.48305282678751623515225DRYL
2023-08-13 20:00:04FORECAST20233223763.57248.95656.2640000.240.24FF31.572604.572229455.4430723357400.508320084752081633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-13 16:00:04FORECAST20233223763.19450.34256.7680000.240.24FF31.194605.194229455.4430723357400.493157246651611623515225DRYL
2023-08-13 12:00:03FORECAST20233223764.5851.69258.1360000.240.24FF32.58608.58229455.4430723357400.54863631880921633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-13 08:00:03FORECAST20233223763.0550.95457.0020000.240.24FF31.05601.05229455.4430723357400.487382338532731623515225DRYL
2023-08-13 04:00:09FORECAST20233223760.99849.4655.2290000.240.24FF28.998596.998229455.4430723357400.405951038632771623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-13 00:00:05FORECAST20233223765.49851.1758.3340000.240.24FF33.498608.498229455.4430723357400.584931831236791633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-12 20:00:04FORECAST20233223764.59850.93657.7670000.240.24FF32.598606.598229455.4430723357400.549352951145761633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-12 16:00:04FORECAST20233223766.95652.3459.6480000.240.24FF34.956613.956229455.4430723357400.641001706225931633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-12 12:00:04FORECAST20233223762.0647.89454.9770000.240.24FF30.06599.06229455.4430723357400.447815294338661623515225DRYL
2023-08-12 08:00:08FORECAST20233223763.17649.31656.2460000.240.24FF31.176602.176229455.4430723357400.492435279860931623515225DRYL
2023-08-12 04:00:12FORECAST20233223764.20248.2956.2460000.240.24FF32.202604.202229455.4430723357400.533553991072141633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:06FORECAST20233223768.75654.08661.4210000.240.24FF36.756620.756229455.4430723357400.706140617306221643515160DRYH
2023-08-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233223769.20656.28262.7440000.240.24FF37.206629.206229455.4430723357400.721532066428851643515160DRYH
2023-08-11 16:00:03FORECAST20233223770.19655.45462.8250000.240.24FF38.196620.196229455.4430723357400.753947036496991643515160DRYH
2023-08-11 12:00:03FORECAST20233223768.05452.26860.1610000.240.24FF36.054622.054229455.4430723357400.681376211831391633515155DRYH
2023-08-11 08:00:06FORECAST20233223769.38652.39460.890000.240.24FF37.386624.386229455.4430723357400.727576869873681643515160DRYH
2023-08-11 04:00:09FORECAST20233223766.57849.74858.1630000.240.24FF34.578621.578229455.4430723357400.62670052750221633515227.5DRYL
2023-08-11 00:00:04FORECAST20233223769.78255.45462.6180000.240.24FF37.782627.782229455.4430723357400.740642072820451643515160DRYH
2023-08-10 20:00:05FORECAST20233223769.92655.70662.81600.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF37.926629.926229455.4430723357400.745311605492621643515160DRYH
2023-08-10 16:00:04FORECAST20233223772.64455.6764.15700.007874020.007874020.240.24787402FF40.644636.644229455.4430723357400.824644946084381643515160DRYH
2023-08-10 12:00:09FORECAST20233223775.79461.8868.8370000.240.24FF43.794639.794229455.4430723357400.894403538277191653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 08:00:04FORECAST20233223774.2160.60267.4060000.240.24FF42.21636.21229455.4430723357400.862321063584811653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 04:00:09FORECAST20233223775.75859.97267.8650000.240.24FF43.758636.758229455.4430723357400.893740044563971653515165DRYH
2023-08-10 00:00:04FORECAST20233223778.11662.02470.070000.20.2FF46.116641.116229455.4430723357400.931131811065671653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 20:00:05FORECAST20233223778.09862.00670.0520000.20.2FF46.098643.098229455.4430723357400.930890855493391653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 16:00:04FORECAST20233223775.4757.48866.4790000.20.2FF43.47630.47229455.4430723357400.888323845934271653515165DRYH
2023-08-09 12:00:06FORECAST20233223757.95643.53850.74700.086614220.086614220.20.28661422FF25.956594.956229455.4430723357400.293265079782731623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-09 08:00:04FORECAST20233223756.5743.53850.05400.07874020.07874020.190.2687402FF24.57580.57229455.4430723357400.247221694921181613415220DRYL
2023-08-09 04:00:09FORECAST20233223773.448.7461.070000.180.18FF41.4605.4229455.4430723357400.843580862884741643515160DRYH
2023-08-09 00:00:09FORECAST20233223757.00251.45854.230000.240.24FF25.002604.002229455.4430723357400.261147566209871623515225DRYL
2023-08-08 20:00:06FORECAST20233223756.73240.71248.7220000.240.24FF24.732594.732229455.4430723357400.252396990011061623415222.5DRYL
2023-08-08 16:00:08FORECAST20233223758.24454.51856.3810000.270.27FF26.244610.244229455.4430723357400.303308266290991623515225DRYL
2023-08-08 12:00:05FORECAST20233223758.24454.51856.3810000.260.26FF26.244615.244229455.4430723357400.303308266290991623515225DRYL
2023-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233223739.41637.97638.696000.020.380.4FF7.416556.416229455.4430723357400.00789521122397161613415220DRYL
2023-08-08 04:00:10FORECAST20233223752.71850.25251.4850000.20.2FF20.718606.718229455.4430723357400.142131153745211613515222.5DRYL