Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, August 15, 2023

[ Monday, August 14, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, August 16, 2023 ]

DAY 319 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/16/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there was a(n) DEBRIS FLOW on this day. Click here for more info.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:

Temperature at Paradise	MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 83.50°F MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 66.77°F AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.14°F MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.967 Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:	DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL: Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F (DD32)	TODAY'S DD32: 51 18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 588 DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32 18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise	DAY 1: 0.00 in DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in 18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5) PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise	DEPTH: 0 in SWE DAY: 226 CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.81 kg/m3 CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010) If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables	DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 34 July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables	D0: 5 D1: 3 D2: 4 D3: 1 D4: 5 D5: 1 HSdry: 60.0 These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day. HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5 See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes	Small debris flow on Tahoma Creek, first activation of the new debris flow detection system

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D	TYPE	WY	DOFWY	DS0SP	T_MAX	T_MIN	T_AVG	SP	P1	P3	P15	P18	PA	PB	DD32	DD32_18	SWE_DAY	SNOW_P	SWE	T_MAX_PERC	T_MAX_PERC_YRS	D0	D1	D2	D3	D4	D5	HS_DRY	FCST_TYPE	HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-16 04:00:06	OBSERVATION	2023	319	34	83.49998	66.77006	75.13502	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	51.49998	588.49998	226	453.80977123269	0	0.96712198544008	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-16 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.512	63.158	70.835	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.512	583.512	227	454.35627508706	0	0.9154677249918	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-15 12:00:01	FORECAST	2023	319	34	77.36	62.348	69.854	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	45.36	582.36	227	454.35627508706	0	0.89760204635127	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-15 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.478	63.194	69.836	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	44.478	581.478	227	454.35627508706	0	0.8821800452334	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-15 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.946	62.798	69.872	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	44.946	581.946	227	454.35627508706	0	0.89055574456902	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-15 00:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.988	63.464	71.726	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.988	580.988	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93481665085128	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 20:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.962	63.806	71.384	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.962	578.962	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92177446185018	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.124	62.744	70.934	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.124	579.124	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92395563697339	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 12:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.718	64.166	71.942	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.718	579.718	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93155973895089	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 08:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.566	63.356	70.961	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.566	577.566	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9162440106512	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.52	63.878	71.699	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.52	580.52	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9290928599626	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-14 00:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.376	63.932	71.654	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.376	576.376	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92725642324702	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.764	64.058	71.411	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.764	575.764	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91904475881292	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.088	65.084	72.086	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.088	577.088	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92347496407444	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.88	64.202	72.041	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.88	577.88	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93352856917591	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.98	63.806	71.393	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.98	574.98	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92201912454473	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.836	64.418	71.627	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.836	574.836	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92004555160621	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-13 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.34	64.472	71.906	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.34	578.34	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92679169185048	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.52	64.832	72.176	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.52	576.52	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9290928599626	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	80.276	64.22	72.248	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	48.276	579.276	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93815720155353	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.53	62.744	70.637	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.53	573.53	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91572708231351	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 08:00:07	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.674	63.608	71.141	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.674	575.674	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91778055164942	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 04:00:11	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.836	61.916	70.376	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.836	574.836	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92004555160621	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-12 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.172	59.594	67.883	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	44.172	587.172	226	453.80977123269	0	0.87646489552724	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 20:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.332	61.682	70.007	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.332	592.332	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9128412512311	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 16:00:02	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.28	61.358	68.819	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	44.28	585.28	226	453.80977123269	0	0.87850371135166	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 12:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	77.162	61.88	69.521	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	45.162	588.162	226	453.80977123269	0	0.89427421455782	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.224	62.438	70.331	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.224	589.224	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91123648319867	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.818	60.746	69.782	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.818	587.818	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91979623182696	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-11 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.142	63.086	71.114	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.142	594.142	226	453.80977123269	0	0.92419511273906	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.638	62.816	70.727	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.638	592.638	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91727074013476	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.88	61.79	70.835	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	47.88	593.88	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93352856917591	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 12:00:08	FORECAST	2023	319	34	78.26	63.338	70.799	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	46.26	592.26	226	453.80977123269	0	0.91177382442876	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 08:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	77.936	62.024	69.98	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	45.936	591.936	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9068500476571	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.82	59.792	68.306	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	44.82	587.82	226	453.80977123269	0	0.88834387302149	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-10 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	75.362	57.614	66.488	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	43.362	586.362	226	453.80977123269	0	0.86041190550631	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-09 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.694	58.01	67.352	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	44.694	587.694	226	453.80977123269	0	0.88610030595618	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-09 16:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.046	58.442	67.244	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	44.046	583.046	226	453.80977123269	0	0.87405623105218	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-09 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	73.454	54.914	64.184	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	41.454	580.454	226	453.80977123269	0	0.81721671353308	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-09 08:00:03	FORECAST	2023	319	34	70.862	54.608	62.735	0	0	0	0.19	0.19	F	F	38.862	570.862	226	453.80977123269	0	0.74664323544653	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-09 04:00:08	FORECAST	2023	319	34	71.15	54.428	62.789	0	0	0	0.18	0.18	F	F	39.15	578.15	226	453.80977123269	0	0.75512938956435	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-09 00:00:08	FORECAST	2023	319	34	75.11	56.012	65.561	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	43.11	579.11	226	453.80977123269	0	0.85514127438047	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-08 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	73.004	55.994	64.499	0	0	0	0.24	0.24	F	F	41.004	573.004	226	453.80977123269	0	0.80592821504134	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-08 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	79.646	61.61	70.628	0	0	0	0.27	0.27	F	F	47.646	577.646	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93067044087749	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-08 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	80.312	61.682	70.997	0	0	0	0.26	0.26	F	F	48.312	581.312	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93856523301227	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-08 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	74.534	58.658	66.596	0	0	0	0.38	0.38	F	F	42.534	564.534	226	453.80977123269	0	0.84259803322211	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-08 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.514	57.956	67.235	0	0	0	0.2	0.2	F	F	44.514	580.514	226	453.80977123269	0	0.8828399483218	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-08 00:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	73.706	56.876	65.291	0	0	0	0.33	0.33	F	F	41.706	570.706	226	453.80977123269	0	0.82335582472847	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-07 20:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	74.48	56.858	65.669	0	0	0	0.21	0.21	F	F	42.48	571.48	226	453.80977123269	0	0.84138665122665	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-07 16:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.514	57.956	67.235	0	0	0	0.18	0.18	F	F	44.514	578.514	226	453.80977123269	0	0.8828399483218	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-07 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.91	58.442	67.676	0	0	0	0.18	0.18	F	F	44.91	576.91	226	453.80977123269	0	0.88992700697395	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-07 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	75.398	59.684	67.541	0	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	43.398	579.398	226	453.80977123269	0	0.86115409992138	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-07 04:00:09	FORECAST	2023	319	34	74.606	59.702	67.154	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	F	F	42.606	574.606	226	453.80977123269	0	0.84420374986268	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-07 00:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	74.3	59	66.65	0	0	0	0.3	0.3	F	F	42.3	565.3	226	453.80977123269	0	0.83730479356808	16	4	3	4	1	5	1	55	DRY	H
2023-08-06 20:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	75.398	59.684	67.541	0	0	0	0.49	0.49	F	F	43.398	580.398	226	453.80977123269	0	0.86115409992138	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-06 16:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	76.388	61.268	68.828	0	0	0	0.35	0.35	F	F	44.388	573.388	226	453.80977123269	0	0.88051882917723	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-06 12:00:04	FORECAST	2023	319	34	80.42	61.232	70.826	0	0	0	0.23	0.23	F	F	48.42	586.42	226	453.80977123269	0	0.93977675951062	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-06 08:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	81.86	53.348	67.604	0	0	0	0.43	0.43	F	F	49.86	578.86	226	453.80977123269	0	0.9542092815322	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-06 04:00:07	FORECAST	2023	319	34	85.478	61.214	73.346	0	0	0	0.26	0.26	F	F	53.478	587.478	226	453.80977123269	0	0.97855328709753	16	5	3	4	1	5	1	60	DRY	H
2023-08-06 00:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	59.36	53.348	56.354	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	F	F	27.36	553.36	226	453.80977123269	0	0.34293531730791	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 20:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	60.08	53.348	56.714	0	0	0	0.48	0.48	F	F	28.08	559.08	226	453.80977123269	0	0.3678382390832	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 16:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	60.944	48.29	54.617	0	0	0	0.55	0.55	F	F	28.944	563.944	226	453.80977123269	0	0.39846279342123	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L
2023-08-05 12:00:05	FORECAST	2023	319	34	68.054	63.176	65.615	0	0	0	0.42	0.42	F	F	36.054	583.054	226	453.80977123269	0	0.65656696833518	16	3	3	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-05 08:00:06	FORECAST	2023	319	34	68.054	63.176	65.615	0	0	0	0.49	0.49	F	F	36.054	574.054	226	453.80977123269	0	0.65656696833518	16	3	3	4	1	5	1	50	DRY	MH
2023-08-05 04:00:24	FORECAST	2023	319	34	59.684	59.126	59.405	0	0	0	0.69	0.69	F	F	27.684	557.684	226	453.80977123269	0	0.35406500960553	16	2	3	4	1	5	2	22.5	DRY	L