MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Monday, August 14, 2023

[ Sunday, August 13, 2023 | Index | Today | Tuesday, August 15, 2023 ]

DAY 318 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/15/2023 04:00:08 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 84.00°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 67.20°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 75.60°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.962
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 52
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 567

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 225
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 453.26 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 33

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-15 04:00:08OBSERVATION20233183384.0000267.2000875.600050000.240.24FF52.00002567.00002225453.26118671292 00.9621248599329116 52415155DRYH
2023-08-15 00:00:02FORECAST20233183380.13259.48669.8090000.240.24FF48.132563.132226453.8097712326900.922353157188571652415155DRYH
2023-08-14 12:00:02FORECAST20233183378.76459.75669.260000.240.24FF46.764561.764226453.8097712326900.902468137545521652415155DRYH
2023-08-14 08:00:01FORECAST20233183378.4459.10868.7740000.240.24FF46.44561.44226453.8097712326900.897255880176061652415155DRYH
2023-08-14 04:00:06FORECAST20233183380.45659.43269.9440000.240.24FF48.456563.456226453.8097712326900.92657872695751652415155DRYH
2023-08-14 00:00:03FORECAST20233183379.68259.77469.7280000.240.24FF47.682558.682225453.2611867129200.916182446598471652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 20:00:02FORECAST20233183379.35859.93669.6470000.240.24FF47.358559.358225453.2611867129200.911517200821841652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 16:00:02FORECAST20233183379.86260.60270.2320000.240.24FF47.862559.862225453.2611867129200.918693384043171652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20233183379.95261.59270.7720000.240.24FF47.952559.952225453.2611867129200.919927446807661652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20233183379.4360.51269.9710000.240.24FF47.43558.43225453.2611867129200.912570230664531652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 04:00:08FORECAST20233183379.05260.869.9260000.240.24FF47.052558.052225453.2611867129200.906936640562061652415155DRYH
2023-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233183379.62861.57470.6010000.240.24FF47.628560.628225453.2611867129200.915417961328451652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 20:00:03FORECAST20233183380.00661.84470.9250000.240.24FF48.006559.006225453.2611867129200.920661080066491652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 16:00:03FORECAST20233183380.92461.39471.1590000.240.24FF48.924560.924225453.2611867129200.932369866251051652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233183378.54860.13469.3410000.240.24FF46.548556.548225453.2611867129200.899015257092541652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 08:00:06FORECAST20233183378.69260.45869.5750000.240.24FF46.692558.692225453.2611867129200.901326899329161652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 04:00:11FORECAST20233183378.74659.70269.2240000.240.24FF46.746557.746225453.2611867129200.902183736639231652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233183378.5358.83868.6840000.240.24FF46.53572.53225453.2611867129200.898723557779181652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 20:00:03FORECAST20233183379.8860.56670.2230000.240.24FF47.88575.88225453.2611867129200.9189413336331652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20233183378.31459.30668.810000.240.24FF46.314571.314225453.2611867129200.895175337743711652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20233183379.23259.88269.5570000.240.24FF47.232573.232225453.2611867129200.909651785429581652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 08:00:06FORECAST20233183379.4359.7269.5750000.240.24FF47.43573.43225453.2611867129200.912570230664531652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 04:00:08FORECAST20233183377.95460.20669.080000.240.24FF45.954570.954225453.2611867129200.889063794615171652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233183377.2759.97268.6210000.240.24FF45.27577.27225453.2611867129200.876759798364171652415155DRYH
2023-08-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233183376.67659.66668.1710000.240.24FF44.676575.676225453.2611867129200.865326605306111652415155DRYH
2023-08-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233183377.3659.16268.2610000.240.24FF45.36576.36225453.2611867129200.878431103781191652415155DRYH
2023-08-10 12:00:07FORECAST20233183376.9160.9868.9450000.240.24FF44.91575.91225453.2611867129200.869914354031771652415155DRYH
2023-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233183376.83860.00868.4230000.240.24FF44.838575.838225453.2611867129200.868514373138271652415155DRYH
2023-08-10 04:00:08FORECAST20233183375.34458.51466.9290000.240.24FF43.344573.344225453.2611867129200.837116313801581642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233183374.6658.40666.5330000.20.2FF42.66572.66225453.2611867129200.821238863624191642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233183375.75858.3767.0640000.20.2FF43.758572.758225453.2611867129200.846267637261561642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233183374.73258.26266.4970000.20.2FF42.732568.732225453.2611867129200.822954530565711642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 12:00:05FORECAST20233183373.32855.88664.6070000.20.2FF41.328569.328225453.2611867129200.787639171387331642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233183371.34855.72463.5360000.190.19FF39.348562.348225453.2611867129200.731442939921111642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 04:00:08FORECAST20233183372.89655.9464.4180000.180.18FF40.896568.896225453.2611867129200.775997784071991642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 00:00:08FORECAST20233183373.27456.82265.0480000.240.24FF41.274566.274225453.2611867129200.7862035907461642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 20:00:06FORECAST20233183371.657.57864.5890000.240.24FF39.6561.6225453.2611867129200.738987383132381642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 16:00:06FORECAST20233183373.7656.22864.9940000.270.27FF41.76559.76225453.2611867129200.798919848337231642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 12:00:04FORECAST20233183376.29857.09266.6950000.260.26FF44.298563.298225453.2611867129200.85768413668651652415155DRYH
2023-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233183372.26652.9762.6180000.380.38FF40.266552.266225453.2611867129200.758389236685681642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 04:00:09FORECAST20233183373.09455.5864.3370000.20.2FF41.094566.094225453.2611867129200.78137777130351642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20233183371.72652.95262.3390000.330.33FF39.726558.726225453.2611867129200.742718373862391642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 20:00:04FORECAST20233183371.47453.45662.4650000.210.21FF39.474559.474225453.2611867129200.735228806112651642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 16:00:04FORECAST20233183373.09455.5864.3370000.180.18FF41.094564.094225453.2611867129200.78137777130351642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 12:00:04FORECAST20233183373.38253.34863.3650000.180.18FF41.382562.382225453.2611867129200.78906911423141642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20233183375.36258.1966.7760000.430.43FF43.362566.362225453.2611867129200.837521397860831642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 04:00:09FORECAST20233183375.39858.47866.9380000.250.25FF43.398562.398225453.2611867129200.838329602538951642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 00:00:04FORECAST20233183372.17654.91463.5450000.30.3FF40.176553.176225453.2611867129200.755813878618661642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233183375.36258.1966.7760000.490.49FF43.362567.362225453.2611867129200.837521397860831642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233183374.91255.88665.3990000.350.35FF42.912558.912225453.2611867129200.827198108218891642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233183376.22654.15865.1920000.230.23FF44.226568.226225453.2611867129200.85619589120661652415155DRYH
2023-08-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233183373.77855.27464.5260000.430.43FF41.778558.778225453.2611867129200.799381958126521642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233183375.54253.45664.4990000.260.26FF43.542563.542225453.2611867129200.841536238190251642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 00:00:06FORECAST20233183373.77855.27464.5260000.50.5FF41.778555.778225453.2611867129200.799381958126521642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 20:00:06FORECAST20233183373.99455.92264.9580000.480.48FF41.994560.994225453.2611867129200.80487749647891642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20233183374.10255.36464.7330000.550.55FF42.102565.102225453.2611867129200.807590686770921642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233183384.72256.2170.4660000.420.42FF52.722576.722225453.2611867129200.967276841843391652415155DRYH
2023-08-05 08:00:06FORECAST20233183384.72255.74270.2320000.490.49FF52.722567.722225453.2611867129200.967276841843391652415155DRYH
2023-08-05 04:00:23FORECAST20233183373.50852.5263.0140000.690.69FF41.508559.508225453.2611867129200.79238365328111642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233183363.19456.08459.6390000.880.88FF31.194540.194225453.2611867129200.448930519103991622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 20:00:07FORECAST20233183351.27844.65447.9660000.690.69FF19.278526.278225453.2611867129200.111563222859021612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-04 16:00:08FORECAST20233183357.99255.20256.5970000.730.73FF25.992534.992225453.2611867129200.272920546430721622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 12:00:06FORECAST20233183358.9155.92257.4160000.520.52FF26.91540.91225453.2611867129200.301510046727141622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 08:00:06FORECAST20233183359.43258.74859.090000.560.56FF27.432548.432225453.2611867129200.318344692296291622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 04:00:13FORECAST20233183359.43258.74859.090000.510.51FF27.432541.432225453.2611867129200.318344692296291622415220DRYL