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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, August 13, 2023

[ Saturday, August 12, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, August 14, 2023 ]

DAY 317 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/14/2023 04:00:05 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
H
HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 77.63°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 58.19°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 67.91°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.909
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 46
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 543

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.24 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.24 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 224
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 452.71 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 32

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 55.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-14 04:00:05OBSERVATION20233173277.6358.1967.910000.240.24FF45.63542.63224452.71051360617 00.9094983903703716 52415155DRYH
2023-08-14 00:00:02FORECAST20233173274.15654.17664.1660000.240.24FF42.156539.156225453.2611867129200.839464941600171642415150DRYMH
2023-08-13 12:00:02FORECAST20233173274.55254.60864.580000.240.24FF42.552539.552225453.2611867129200.848873646240551642415150DRYMH
2023-08-13 08:00:02FORECAST20233173274.17454.30264.2380000.240.24FF42.174539.174225453.2611867129200.839900716952191642415150DRYMH
2023-08-13 04:00:08FORECAST20233173274.24653.9664.1030000.240.24FF42.246539.246225453.2611867129200.841636096876351642415150DRYMH
2023-08-13 00:00:04FORECAST20233173275.84854.73465.2910000.240.24FF43.848540.848224452.7105136061700.877065069753451652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 20:00:02FORECAST20233173276.13654.80665.4710000.240.24FF44.136539.136224452.7105136061700.882794917772581652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 16:00:02FORECAST20233173276.9154.82465.8670000.240.24FF44.91539.91224452.7105136061700.897252033221011652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 12:00:03FORECAST20233173274.80454.08664.4450000.240.24FF42.804537.804224452.7105136061700.854666576260561652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 08:00:05FORECAST20233173274.9354.87864.9040000.240.24FF42.93539.93224452.7105136061700.857506435851611652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 04:00:11FORECAST20233173274.96654.0564.5080000.240.24FF42.966538.966224452.7105136061700.858310903374631652415155DRYH
2023-08-12 00:00:05FORECAST20233173274.87653.31264.0940000.240.24FF42.876553.876224452.7105136061700.856293968829821652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 20:00:02FORECAST20233173275.97455.00465.4890000.240.24FF43.974555.974224452.7105136061700.87959552581161652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 16:00:02FORECAST20233173274.4853.7864.130000.240.24FF42.48553.48224452.7105136061700.847190762683911642415150DRYMH
2023-08-11 12:00:02FORECAST20233173275.00253.47464.2380000.240.24FF43.002554.002224452.7105136061700.859112297546281652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 08:00:05FORECAST20233173275.16453.36664.2650000.240.24FF43.164554.164224452.7105136061700.862680581719051652415155DRYH
2023-08-11 04:00:08FORECAST20233173274.31853.18663.7520000.240.24FF42.318553.318224452.7105136061700.843359122148821642415150DRYMH
2023-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233173273.63453.13263.3830000.240.24FF41.634559.634224452.7105136061700.826491832796171642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 20:00:04FORECAST20233173273.61651.85462.7350000.240.24FF41.616558.616224452.7105136061700.826032926012621642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 16:00:03FORECAST20233173273.7652.98863.3740000.240.24FF41.76558.76224452.7105136061700.829682630855651642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 12:00:07FORECAST20233173273.83254.42864.130000.240.24FF41.832558.832224452.7105136061700.831488999226021642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233173273.61652.80863.2120000.240.24FF41.616558.616224452.7105136061700.826032926012621642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 04:00:08FORECAST20233173272.60852.95262.780000.240.24FF40.608557.608224452.7105136061700.79911392576591642415150DRYMH
2023-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233173272.48252.57462.5280000.20.2FF40.482558.482224452.7105136061700.795582030085091642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 20:00:04FORECAST20233173273.32852.10662.7170000.20.2FF41.328557.328224452.7105136061700.818585950353811642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 16:00:03FORECAST20233173272.51851.87262.1950000.20.2FF40.518553.518224452.7105136061700.796594888189381642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 12:00:05FORECAST20233173272.37452.2562.3120000.20.2FF40.374556.374224452.7105136061700.792525532543741642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233173270.64652.10661.3760000.190.19FF38.646550.646224452.7105136061700.740077463684581642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233173271.54651.51261.5290000.180.18FF39.546555.546224452.7105136061700.768211945197391642415150DRYMH
2023-08-09 00:00:08FORECAST20233173271.65451.33261.4930000.240.24FF39.654552.654224452.7105136061700.771470409817211642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 20:00:05FORECAST20233173270.71851.76461.2410000.240.24FF38.718549.718224452.7105136061700.742391180505521642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 16:00:05FORECAST20233173271.27650.59460.935000.040.230.27FF39.276546.276224452.7105136061700.759953837032261642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 12:00:04FORECAST20233173271.38452.62862.006000.040.220.26FF39.384547.384224452.7105136061700.763276159265521642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 08:00:05FORECAST20233173269.11650.960.008000.140.240.38FF37.116540.116224452.7105136061700.688513666326731632425190DRYVH
2023-08-08 04:00:09FORECAST20233173270.41252.2561.3310000.20.2FF38.412553.412224452.7105136061700.732484644113291642415150DRYMH
2023-08-08 00:00:05FORECAST20233173270.6152.3461.4750000.330.33FF38.61546.61224452.7105136061700.738916604317641642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233173270.50252.89861.70000.210.21FF38.502547.502224452.7105136061700.73541812702391642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233173270.41252.2561.3310000.180.18FF38.412551.412224452.7105136061700.732484644113291642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 12:00:04FORECAST20233173270.1652.80861.4840000.180.18FF38.16549.16224452.7105136061700.724184700159921642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 08:00:06FORECAST20233173273.45453.43863.4460000.430.43FF41.454551.454224452.7105136061700.821868176865971642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 04:00:09FORECAST20233173270.28652.64661.4660000.250.25FF38.286547.286224452.7105136061700.72835043447231642415150DRYMH
2023-08-07 00:00:04FORECAST20233173269.40450.41459.9090000.30.3FF37.404541.404224452.7105136061700.698552406578831632415145DRYM
2023-08-06 20:00:05FORECAST20233173273.45453.43863.4460000.490.49FF41.454552.454224452.7105136061700.821868176865971642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233173269.63850.3659.9990000.350.35FF37.638543.638224452.7105136061700.706600094243751642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233173270.35849.98260.170000.230.23FF38.358552.358224452.7105136061700.730716726223051642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233173271.22249.76660.4940000.430.43FF39.222545.222224452.7105136061700.758283206278991642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233173270.35848.48859.4230000.260.26FF38.358548.358224452.7105136061700.730716726223051642415150DRYMH
2023-08-06 00:00:05FORECAST20233173271.22249.76660.4940000.50.5FF39.222542.222224452.7105136061700.758283206278991642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 20:00:05FORECAST20233173271.65450.19860.9260000.480.48FF39.654546.654224452.7105136061700.771470409817211642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 16:00:06FORECAST20233173272.21252.68262.4470000.550.55FF40.212551.212224452.7105136061700.78789058377811642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 12:00:05FORECAST20233173272.78854.15863.4730000.420.42FF40.788551.788224452.7105136061700.80409562187651642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 08:00:05FORECAST20233173272.01453.04262.5280000.490.49FF40.014543.014224452.7105136061700.782144386941281642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 04:00:22FORECAST20233173270.1650.61260.3860000.690.69FF38.16546.16224452.7105136061700.724184700159921642415150DRYMH
2023-08-05 00:00:05FORECAST20233173272.03251.40461.7180000.880.88FF40.032537.032224452.7105136061700.782670442650661642415150DRYMH
2023-08-04 20:00:07FORECAST20233173271.58251.9861.7810000.690.69FF39.582534.582224452.7105136061700.769300961595521642415150DRYMH
2023-08-04 16:00:08FORECAST20233173277.07254.565.7860000.730.73FF45.072537.072224452.7105136061700.900107004860541652415155DRYH
2023-08-04 12:00:05FORECAST20233173275.77653.90664.8410000.520.52FF43.776541.776224452.7105136061700.875602518234281652415155DRYH
2023-08-04 08:00:06FORECAST20233173273.47254.53664.0040000.560.56FF41.472549.472224452.7105136061700.822333998906031642415150DRYMH
2023-08-04 04:00:13FORECAST20233173273.47254.3263.8960000.510.51FF41.472542.472224452.7105136061700.822333998906031642415150DRYMH
2023-08-04 00:00:05FORECAST20233173255.99448.68652.340000.420.42FF23.994544.994224452.7105136061700.208559219803021612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-03 20:00:06FORECAST20233173262.25855.43658.8470000.110.11FF30.258563.258224452.7105136061700.424905784085151622415220DRYL
2023-08-03 16:00:08FORECAST20233173253.36651.72852.5470000.450.45FF21.366553.366224452.7105136061700.141736008468191612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20233173255.65251.63853.6450000.270.27FF23.652556.652224452.7105136061700.198942657194651612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-03 08:00:07FORECAST20233173255.65251.63853.6450000.260.26FF23.652562.652224452.7105136061700.198942657194651612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-03 04:00:09FORECAST20233173253.36651.72852.5470000.450.45FF21.366555.366224452.7105136061700.141736008468191612415217.5DRYL