MOUNT RAINIER
GEOLOGY & WEATHER
Hello guest! [ Log In ]
MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, August 11, 2023

[ Thursday, August 10, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, August 12, 2023 ]

DAY 315 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 08/12/2023 04:00:09 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
L
LOW

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 45.66°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 43.28°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 44.47°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.030
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 14
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 513

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.06 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.26 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.32 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 222
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 451.60 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: 30

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 1
D1: 2
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 17.5

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-08-12 04:00:09OBSERVATION20233153045.6600243.2800644.47004000.060.260.32FF13.66002512.66002222451.60286979454 00.02987976302527216 12415217.5DRYL
2023-08-12 00:00:01FORECAST20233153060.51241.34250.927000.060.260.32FF28.512527.512223452.1577439607100.329086320924971622415220DRYL
2023-08-11 12:00:01FORECAST20233153061.14242.92652.034000.060.260.32FF29.142528.142223452.1577439607100.351434626464181622415220DRYL
2023-08-11 08:00:02FORECAST20233153060.56641.75651.161000.060.260.32FF28.566527.566223452.1577439607100.330979535812761622415220DRYL
2023-08-11 04:00:07FORECAST20233153060.92641.86451.395000.060.260.32FF28.926527.926223452.1577439607100.343709552204651622415220DRYL
2023-08-11 00:00:03FORECAST20233153061.68242.92652.304000.060.260.32FF29.682534.682222451.6028697945400.371011370799511622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 20:00:02FORECAST20233153061.30441.93651.62000.060.260.32FF29.304534.304222451.6028697945400.357269164882221622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 16:00:02FORECAST20233153061.2542.5351.89000.060.260.32FF29.25534.25222451.6028697945400.355320530001561622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 12:00:06FORECAST20233153061.03443.0752.052000.060.260.32FF29.034534.034222451.6028697945400.347564180788611622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 08:00:03FORECAST20233153061.28642.8952.088000.060.260.32FF29.286534.286222451.6028697945400.356619203472571622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 04:00:07FORECAST20233153060.78242.9851.881000.060.260.32FF28.782533.782222451.6028697945400.338595263419451622415220DRYL
2023-08-10 00:00:03FORECAST20233153062.13244.13253.132000.020.260.28FF30.132534.132222451.6028697945400.38758677492821622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 20:00:03FORECAST20233153061.71843.35852.538000.020.260.28FF29.718531.718222451.6028697945400.372329092507171622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 16:00:02FORECAST20233153060.8942.9851.935000.020.260.28FF28.89529.89222451.6028697945400.342428252298621622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 12:00:04FORECAST20233153061.17843.35852.268000.020.260.28FF29.178532.178222451.6028697945400.35272822798331622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 08:00:03FORECAST20233153060.02643.8851.953000.010.260.27FF28.026530.026222451.6028697945400.312248949208191622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 04:00:07FORECAST20233153061.95243.66452.8080000.260.26FF29.952532.952222451.6028697945400.380930103163881622415220DRYL
2023-08-09 00:00:07FORECAST20233153062.45643.71853.087000.060.260.32FF30.456531.456222451.6028697945400.399651189728071622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 20:00:05FORECAST20233153061.44843.55652.502000.060.260.32FF29.448529.448222451.6028697945400.362483622470081622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 16:00:04FORECAST20233153059.64843.0751.35900.03937010.08937010.260.3493701FF27.648524.648222451.6028697945400.299416553653561622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 12:00:03FORECAST20233153060.3544.85252.60100.03937010.07937010.260.3393701FF28.35527.35222451.6028697945400.323433064736361622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 08:00:04FORECAST20233153058.1943.57450.88200.141732360.201732360.260.46173236FF26.19522.19222451.6028697945400.252311383510191622425240DRYM
2023-08-08 04:00:08FORECAST20233153061.3444.38452.862000.020.260.28FF29.34531.34222451.6028697945400.35857032852121622415220DRYL
2023-08-08 00:00:04FORECAST20233153059.84644.13251.989000.080.330.41FF27.846523.846222451.6028697945400.306108586956921622415220DRYL
2023-08-07 20:00:03FORECAST20233153060.15244.3352.241000.050.240.29FF28.152525.152222451.6028697945400.316578556266051622415220DRYL
2023-08-07 16:00:03FORECAST20233153061.3444.38452.862000.020.240.26FF29.34529.34222451.6028697945400.35857032852121622415220DRYL
2023-08-07 12:00:04FORECAST20233153061.19645.08653.141000.020.240.26FF29.196527.196222451.6028697945400.353375668642341622415220DRYL
2023-08-07 08:00:05FORECAST20233153062.99645.75254.374000.20.310.51FF30.996524.996222451.6028697945400.419967567299551622425240DRYM
2023-08-07 04:00:09FORECAST20233153062.7845.30254.041000.110.220.33FF30.78524.78222451.6028697945400.411812163314991622425240DRYM
2023-08-07 00:00:03FORECAST20233153060.9845.80653.393000.10.280.38FF28.98522.98222451.6028697945400.345634867100171622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 20:00:04FORECAST20233153062.99645.75254.374000.210.360.57FF30.996525.996222451.6028697945400.419967567299551622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 16:00:04FORECAST20233153061.48445.03253.258000.150.280.43FF29.484524.484222451.6028697945400.363791275451711622425240DRYM
2023-08-06 12:00:04FORECAST20233153061.86244.67253.267000.030.280.31FF29.862531.862222451.6028697945400.37761479471881622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 08:00:05FORECAST20233153061.84446.18454.0140000.510.51FF29.844525.844222451.6028697945400.376952804473741622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 04:00:06FORECAST20233153061.39443.8852.637000.030.310.34FF29.394528.394222451.6028697945400.36052515033471622415220DRYL
2023-08-06 00:00:05FORECAST20233153061.84446.18454.0140000.580.58FF29.844522.844222451.6028697945400.376952804473741622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 20:00:05FORECAST20233153062.47446.02254.248000.010.550.56FF30.474525.474222451.6028697945400.400324369034891622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 16:00:05FORECAST20233153063.69845.62654.662000.020.610.63FF31.698525.698222451.6028697945400.446693030566831622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 12:00:04FORECAST20233153065.10245.1455.121000.010.490.5FF33.102524.102222451.6028697945400.500754059508031632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-05 08:00:05FORECAST20233153063.37444.90654.14000.010.560.57FF31.374516.374222451.6028697945400.434320487304581622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 04:00:20FORECAST20233153063.66244.56454.113000.020.750.77FF31.662521.662222451.6028697945400.445315511317861622415220DRYL
2023-08-05 00:00:04FORECAST20233153063.06845.73454.401000.050.910.96FF31.068513.068222451.6028697945400.422693873136581622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 20:00:06FORECAST20233153064.6746.63455.652000.070.70.77FF32.67509.67222451.6028697945400.484075013632281622415220DRYL
2023-08-04 16:00:07FORECAST20233153063.73445.64454.689000.10.710.81FF31.734505.734222451.6028697945400.448071193290461622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 12:00:05FORECAST20233153064.54444.97854.761000.170.430.6FF32.544510.544222451.6028697945400.479214239151111622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 08:00:05FORECAST20233153063.53645.24854.392000.260.380.64FF31.536522.536222451.6028697945400.440499498117361622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 04:00:12FORECAST20233153063.46445.37454.419000.230.360.59FF31.464516.464222451.6028697945400.437751389981681622425240DRYM
2023-08-04 00:00:05FORECAST20233153064.446.70655.553000.120.380.5FF32.4534.4222451.6028697945400.473662893212721622425240DRYM
2023-08-03 20:00:05FORECAST20233153070.71850.64860.6830000.190.19FF38.718537.718222451.6028697945400.707309971310041642415150DRYMH
2023-08-03 16:00:07FORECAST20233153069.22450.57659.90000.530.53FF37.224548.224222451.6028697945400.65575787874261632415145DRYM
2023-08-03 12:00:04FORECAST20233153070.50250.3660.4310000.350.35FF38.502538.502222451.6028697945400.700080535108531642415150DRYMH
2023-08-03 08:00:07FORECAST20233153071.81650.50461.160000.340.34FF39.816543.816222451.6028697945400.742749316685251642415150DRYMH
2023-08-03 04:00:08FORECAST20233153069.22450.57659.90000.530.53FF37.224550.224222451.6028697945400.65575787874261632415145DRYM
2023-08-03 00:00:04FORECAST20233153069.99851.20660.6020000.570.57FF37.998549.998222451.6028697945400.682906099744911632415145DRYM
2023-08-02 20:00:04FORECAST20233153067.96450.70259.3330000.580.58FF35.964544.964222451.6028697945400.609854511538471632415222.5DRYL
2023-08-02 16:00:04FORECAST20233153068.10849.87458.9910000.320.32FF36.108543.108222451.6028697945400.615192886631581632415145DRYM
2023-08-02 12:00:04FORECAST20233153069.51250.73860.1250000.120.12FF37.512566.512222451.6028697945400.665963012996141632415145DRYM
2023-08-02 08:00:05FORECAST20233153071.4252.64662.033000.220.110.33FF39.42564.42222451.6028697945400.7302289067242416424251100DRYVH
2023-08-02 04:00:08FORECAST20233153071.4252.64662.033000.220.110.33FF39.42558.42222451.6028697945400.7302289067242416424251100DRYVH
2023-08-02 00:00:04FORECAST20233153054.96850.3652.664000.180.140.32FF22.968536.968222451.6028697945400.163726927988341612425235DRYL
2023-08-01 20:00:04FORECAST20233153054.96850.3652.664000.180.140.32FF22.968538.968222451.6028697945400.163726927988341612425235DRYL
2023-08-01 16:00:04FORECAST20233153053.36647.76850.5670000.110.11FF21.366540.366222451.6028697945400.128297627171061612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-01 12:00:05FORECAST20233153047.85846.1346.9940000.120.12FF15.858539.858222451.6028697945400.0475691804207541612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-01 08:00:06FORECAST20233153047.85846.1346.9940000.120.12FF15.858540.858222451.6028697945400.0475691804207541612415217.5DRYL
2023-08-01 04:00:15FORECAST20233153049.51448.23648.875000.010.120.13FF17.514542.514222451.6028697945400.0657678087593911612415217.5DRYL