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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Sunday, July 9, 2023

[ Saturday, July 8, 2023 | Index | Today | Monday, July 10, 2023 ]

DAY 282 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/10/2023 04:00:06 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 67.89°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 50.10°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 59.00°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.730
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 36
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 592

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.23 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.23 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.29 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.52 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 189
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 432.06 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -3

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 4
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 2
D4: 5
D5: 2
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-10 04:00:06OBSERVATION2023282-367.8900250.1000858.9950500.230000000000020.230000000000020.290.52000000000002FF35.89002591.89002189432.05730940898 00.7295538156795916 41425245DRYM
2023-07-10 00:00:01FORECAST2023282-263.78847.64255.7150000.290.29FF31.788587.788190432.6863157642500.577698201092281631415220DRYL
2023-07-09 12:00:02FORECAST2023282-264.99447.60656.300.051181130.051181130.290.34118113FF32.994588.994190432.6863157642500.624814054520391631415220DRYL
2023-07-09 08:00:02FORECAST2023282-264.95847.91256.43500.003937010.003937010.290.29393701FF32.958588.958190432.6863157642500.62343049097211631415220DRYL
2023-07-09 04:00:06FORECAST2023282-267.5548.16457.8570000.290.29FF35.55591.55190432.6863157642500.718038413128811641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-09 00:00:04FORECAST2023282-367.2849.06458.1720000.290.29FF35.28590.28189432.0573094089800.708729480937471641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 20:00:02FORECAST2023282-367.80248.07457.9380000.290.29FF35.802590.802189432.0573094089800.726595503722451641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 16:00:03FORECAST2023282-367.89247.73257.8120000.290.29FF35.892590.892189432.0573094089800.729620178389081641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 12:00:05FORECAST2023282-366.86647.46257.1640000.290.29FF34.866589.866189432.0573094089800.694183980125681631415220DRYL
2023-07-08 08:00:03FORECAST2023282-367.02848.90257.9650000.290.29FF35.028592.028189432.0573094089800.699913982978121641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 04:00:13FORECAST2023282-367.71249.85658.7840000.290.29FF35.712592.712189432.0573094089800.723554189869251641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-08 00:00:03FORECAST2023282-368.84650.25259.5490000.290.29FF36.846589.846189432.0573094089800.76062018791641415145DRYM
2023-07-07 20:00:02FORECAST2023282-367.96450.25259.1080000.290.29FF35.964588.964189432.0573094089800.732027831470061641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 16:00:03FORECAST2023282-366.8348.36257.5960000.290.29FF34.83586.83189432.0573094089800.6929041019191631415220DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:04FORECAST2023282-367.08249.58658.3340000.290.29FF35.082588.082189432.0573094089800.701813145186921641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:05FORECAST2023282-367.08250.05458.56800.027559070.037559070.290.32755907FF35.082586.082189432.0573094089800.701813145186921641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:12FORECAST2023282-366.52448.86657.6950000.290.29FF34.524585.524189432.0573094089800.681931451416911631415220DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:03FORECAST2023282-367.15448.97458.0640000.290.29FF35.154581.154189432.0573094089800.704336817626891641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:04FORECAST2023282-368.41450.3659.38700.011811030.021811030.290.31181103FF36.414584.414189432.0573094089800.746827281279611641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 16:00:04FORECAST2023282-369.36850.8160.0890000.290.29FF37.368586.368189432.0573094089800.776724796918231641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 12:00:07FORECAST2023282-368.79250.12659.45900.027559070.047559070.290.33755907FF36.792582.792189432.0573094089800.758918790031641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 08:00:06FORECAST2023282-369.36850.88260.1250000.290.29FF37.368587.368189432.0573094089800.776724796918231641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 04:00:09FORECAST2023282-367.78449.89258.8380000.290.29FF35.784581.784189432.0573094089800.725988566959841641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023282-368.4547.9358.190000.290.29FF36.45575.45189432.0573094089800.747992414431121641415145DRYM
2023-07-05 20:00:03FORECAST2023282-367.71248.90258.3070000.290.29FF35.712574.712189432.0573094089800.723554189869251641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:04FORECAST2023282-367.58647.19257.3890000.290.29FF35.586574.586189432.0573094089800.719268705497721641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:06FORECAST2023282-368.7247.89458.307000.010.290.3FF36.72576.72189432.0573094089800.756640085574321641415145DRYM
2023-07-05 08:00:05FORECAST2023282-367.8248.36258.091000.010.290.3FF35.82572.82189432.0573094089800.727201774905931641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:09FORECAST2023282-367.3747.60657.4880000.290.29FF35.37574.37189432.0573094089800.711848346261581641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:06FORECAST2023282-366.12850.39658.262000.030.30.33FF34.128567.128189432.0573094089800.667492393906391631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:06FORECAST2023282-366.6549.2857.9650000.290.29FF34.65566.65189432.0573094089800.686469678605971631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2023282-364.3146.88655.5980000.290.29FF32.31558.31189432.0573094089800.598271309408081631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:04FORECAST2023282-365.91246.7656.3360000.290.29FF33.912562.912189432.0573094089800.659508795764551631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:06FORECAST2023282-365.64246.7656.2010000.290.29FF33.642563.642189432.0573094089800.649428311939941631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:22FORECAST2023282-364.25647.53455.8950000.290.29FF32.256557.256189432.0573094089800.596154606959131631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023282-361.44844.8753.1590000.290.29FF29.448547.448189432.0573094089800.483655968532541621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:08FORECAST2023282-362.56443.39452.9790000.290.29FF30.564554.564189432.0573094089800.528717059605941631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:07FORECAST2023282-361.89842.2652.0790000.290.29FF29.898556.898189432.0573094089800.501833044863591631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:05FORECAST2023282-360.67444.56452.6190000.290.29FF28.674559.674189432.0573094089800.452491790270281621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:27FORECAST2023282-362.61845.57254.0950000.290.29FF30.618563.618189432.0573094089800.530892764069011631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:04FORECAST2023282-362.52845.8654.19440.522488000.290.29FF30.528560.528189448.2779313322618.1653370930760.52726610963058163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:17FORECAST2023282-363.3248.255.7640.3547998000.290.29FF31.32559.32189448.2141895258618.0875938858350.55906958815757163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023282-365.85844.97855.4180000.290.29FF33.858558.858189432.0573094089800.657501509090731631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023282-366.6547.1256.8850000.290.29FF34.65565.65189432.0573094089800.686469678605971631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:06FORECAST2023282-365.08446.90455.994000.040.290.33FF33.084556.084189432.0573094089800.628265912665961631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:10FORECAST2023282-367.65846.14856.90300.007874020.047874020.290.33787402FF35.658566.658189432.0573094089800.721721481927061641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:08FORECAST2023282-368.57647.08457.8300.043307110.093307110.290.38330711FF36.576565.576189432.0573094089800.752048027832391641425190DRYVH
2023-07-02 04:00:12FORECAST2023282-367.40647.60657.506000.020.290.31FF35.406568.406189432.0573094089800.713091470060631641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:05FORECAST2023282-362.58245.4153.996000.030.290.32FF30.582560.582189432.0573094089800.529442392891131631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023282-361.21443.98852.601000.020.290.31FF29.214558.214189432.0573094089800.474214911081321621415217.5DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:08FORECAST2023282-363.96847.31855.643000.050.290.34FF31.968560.968189432.0573094089800.584819379093741631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:05FORECAST2023282-366.0249.62257.82100.007874020.027874020.290.31787402FF34.02568.02189432.0573094089800.663509803079361631415220DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:07FORECAST2023282-368.21650.12659.1710000.290.29FF36.216576.216189432.0573094089800.740368826336431641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:21FORECAST2023282-371.83451.42261.62800.074803190.074803190.290.36480319FF39.834580.834189432.0573094089800.844004545159731641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 00:00:07FORECAST2023282-366.45248.63257.542000.020.290.31FF34.452570.452189432.0573094089800.679325812663781631415220DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:08FORECAST2023282-366.5648.4757.5150000.290.29FF34.56572.56189432.0573094089800.683230914901131631415220DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:09FORECAST2023282-368.59450.95459.774000.010.290.3FF36.594571.594189432.0573094089800.75262454877991641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 12:00:05FORECAST2023282-373.41852.05262.7350000.290.29FF41.418574.418189432.0573094089800.879329176977171651415150DRYMH
2023-06-30 08:00:08FORECAST2023282-373.45450.7262.08700.007874020.007874020.290.29787402FF41.454579.454189432.0573094089800.880060768382811651415150DRYMH
2023-06-30 04:00:12FORECAST2023282-365.37250.48657.92900.007874020.007874020.290.29787402FF33.372560.372189432.0573094089800.639241545406891631415220DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:05FORECAST2023282-353.97847.80450.8910000.290.29FF21.978544.978189432.0573094089800.212558629686431611415215DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:09FORECAST2023282-354.84247.80451.323000.040.290.33FF22.842551.842189432.0573094089800.238837279868351611415215DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:07FORECAST2023282-351.65646.7649.2080000.290.29FF19.656546.656189432.0573094089800.150831855015131611415215DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:06FORECAST2023282-343.17835.20439.1910000.290.29FF11.178532.178189432.0573094089800.0291269736508371611415215DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:07FORECAST2023282-343.17835.20439.1910000.290.29FF11.178538.178189432.0573094089800.0291269736508371611415215DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:21FORECAST2023282-334.21432.97233.5930000.290.29FF2.214520.214189432.0573094089800.00249687750383691611415215DRYL