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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Friday, July 7, 2023

[ Thursday, July 6, 2023 | Index | Today | Saturday, July 8, 2023 ]

DAY 280 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/08/2023 04:00:11 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 71.45°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 54.94°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 63.19°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.885
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 39
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 545

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 0.57 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 0.57 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 187
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.79 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -5

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-08 04:00:11OBSERVATION2023280-571.4500654.9399263.194990000.570.57FF39.45006545.45006187430.792103267 00.8848923580932416 51415150DRYMH
2023-07-08 00:00:01FORECAST2023280-465.8045057.9020000.570.57FF33.804539.804188431.4259082823800.726584459347871641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 12:00:02FORECAST2023280-465.91249.96457.9380000.570.57FF33.912539.912188431.4259082823800.730370914918961641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 08:00:02FORECAST2023280-465.19249.65857.4250000.570.57FF33.192539.192188431.4259082823800.704644298743351641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-07 04:00:11FORECAST2023280-464.70648.77656.7410000.570.57FF32.706538.706188431.4259082823800.686665173010051631415220DRYL
2023-07-07 00:00:02FORECAST2023280-567.29849.1958.2440000.570.57FF35.298534.298187430.79210326700.776521849358271641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 20:00:02FORECAST2023280-567.9149.2858.5950000.570.57FF35.91534.91187430.79210326700.795377839999881641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 16:00:02FORECAST2023280-567.80249.40658.6040000.570.57FF35.802534.802187430.79210326700.792120704795021641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:06FORECAST2023280-566.93849.71258.3250000.570.57FF34.938533.938187430.79210326700.764984397978341641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:04FORECAST2023280-568.1851.11659.6480000.570.57FF36.18536.18187430.79210326700.803386974796051641415145DRYM
2023-07-06 04:00:08FORECAST2023280-566.63250.32458.4780000.570.57FF34.632533.632187430.79210326700.75492474302131641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:04FORECAST2023280-566.41648.5657.4880000.570.57FF34.416527.416187430.79210326700.747686936647531641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:02FORECAST2023280-566.32649.47857.9020000.570.57FF34.326528.326187430.79210326700.744638307691231641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:03FORECAST2023280-565.67848.84857.2630000.570.57FF33.678527.678187430.79210326700.72213394963031641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:05FORECAST2023280-566.39849.26257.830000.570.57FF34.398529.398187430.79210326700.747078747517881641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023280-565.49848.9257.2090000.570.57FF33.498527.498187430.79210326700.71571544039081641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:08FORECAST2023280-565.60648.18256.8940000.570.57FF33.606527.606187430.79210326700.719575039880961641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023280-564.38249.92857.15500.027559070.037559070.570.60755907FF32.382523.382187430.79210326700.674424261998031631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:05FORECAST2023280-564.5849.51457.0470000.570.57FF32.58521.58187430.79210326700.681928232650611631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:03FORECAST2023280-563.19448.30855.7510000.570.57FF31.194518.194187430.79210326700.627999104645371631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2023280-562.92447.1255.0220000.570.57FF30.924520.924187430.79210326700.617153170307831631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:05FORECAST2023280-562.36646.90454.6350000.570.57FF30.366522.366187430.79210326700.594453953488891631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:21FORECAST2023280-561.30446.68853.9960000.570.57FF29.304518.304187430.79210326700.550425683131321631415220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:04FORECAST2023280-560.47647.15653.8160000.570.57FF28.476512.476187430.79210326700.51563305474111631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:07FORECAST2023280-561.48446.86854.1760000.570.57FF29.484518.484187430.79210326700.55794752586251631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023280-562.67247.31854.9950000.570.57FF30.672521.672187430.79210326700.606946568212691631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023280-563.91449.06456.4890000.570.57FF31.914523.914187430.79210326700.656408952166411631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:26FORECAST2023280-564.7649.42457.0920000.570.57FF32.76524.76187430.79210326700.688685969035221631415220DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023280-564.4949.1956.8446.1518536000.570.57FF32.49522.49187449.2768386495820.7349588832260.67852634412771163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:16FORECAST2023280-563.9549.11856.53446.515919000.570.57FF31.95519.95187449.414210842720.9049150290080.6578080809708163141124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:06FORECAST2023280-563.24847.37255.310000.570.57FF31.248518.248187430.79210326700.630156471606281631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023280-564.7648.5656.660000.570.57FF32.76521.76187430.79210326700.688685969035221631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:05FORECAST2023280-562.9648.36255.66100.035433090.035433090.570.60543309FF30.96515.96187430.79210326700.618604822668151631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:10FORECAST2023280-564.7647.94856.35400.035433090.035433090.570.60543309FF32.76521.76187430.79210326700.688685969035221631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:07FORECAST2023280-564.2247.8456.0300.051181130.051181130.570.62118113FF32.22520.22187430.79210326700.668231487799231631415220DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023280-566.21850.39658.3070000.570.57FF34.218524.218187430.79210326700.740954735270191641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023280-565.46250.9958.2260000.570.57FF33.462521.462187430.79210326700.714423294175771641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023280-565.55250.7258.1360000.570.57FF33.552520.552187430.79210326700.7176484091871641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:07FORECAST2023280-565.85851.15258.5050000.570.57FF33.858518.858187430.79210326700.728480970512351641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:04FORECAST2023280-568.43252.95260.69200.015748040.015748040.570.58574804FF36.432522.432187430.79210326700.810688521755731641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023280-568.52252.37660.4490000.570.57FF36.522525.522187430.79210326700.813255324130071641415145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:20FORECAST2023280-567.94651.99859.9720000.570.57FF35.946524.946187430.79210326700.7964567813851641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023280-570.84455.29263.06800.015748040.015748040.570.58574804FF38.844523.844187430.79210326700.871947825717111651415150DRYMH
2023-06-30 20:00:07FORECAST2023280-570.2554.2362.240000.570.57FF38.25526.25187430.79210326700.858315015512391651415150DRYMH
2023-06-30 16:00:09FORECAST2023280-570.01653.52861.77200.007874020.007874020.570.57787402FF38.016520.016187430.79210326700.852684658025131651415150DRYMH
2023-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023280-568.88252.32260.6020000.570.57FF36.882518.882187430.79210326700.823306031943551641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 08:00:07FORECAST2023280-568.7250.21659.4680000.570.57FF36.72523.72187430.79210326700.818826170786041641415145DRYM
2023-06-30 04:00:11FORECAST2023280-566.05649.157.5780000.570.57FF34.056515.056187430.79210326700.735378371635911641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023280-565.67849.80257.740000.570.57FF33.678511.678187430.79210326700.72213394963031641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:07FORECAST2023280-566.90250.34258.62200.043307110.043307110.570.61330711FF34.902516.902187430.79210326700.763812856538971641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023280-566.43451.9859.2070000.570.57FF34.434517.434187430.79210326700.74829435499371641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023280-566.27251.31458.7930000.570.57FF34.272512.272187430.79210326700.742799945133291641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023280-567.13651.81859.4770000.570.57FF35.136518.136187430.79210326700.771370243316251641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:20FORECAST2023280-567.17250.07258.6220000.570.57FF35.172510.172187430.79210326700.772520764393571641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023280-567.98251.6259.8010000.60.6FF35.982520.982187430.79210326700.797532329288061641415222.5DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:07FORECAST2023280-569.67453.97861.8260000.580.58FF37.674527.674187430.79210326700.844190091701461641415145DRYM
2023-06-28 16:00:08FORECAST2023280-572.33852.62862.4830000.580.58FF40.338529.338187430.79210326700.902137965249791651415150DRYMH
2023-06-28 12:00:06FORECAST2023280-570.28651.20660.7460000.580.58FF38.286532.286187430.79210326700.859168147923521651415150DRYMH
2023-06-28 08:00:08FORECAST2023280-568.9951.20660.0980000.610.61FF36.99526.99187430.79210326700.826253441433581641415145DRYM
2023-06-28 04:00:16FORECAST2023280-570.44847.31858.8830000.580.58FF38.448509.448187430.79210326700.862964181719161651415150DRYMH
2023-06-28 00:00:08FORECAST2023280-552.12444.70848.4160000.620.62FF20.124494.124187430.79210326700.199364082682261611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023280-552.12441.82846.9760000.60.6FF20.124484.124187430.79210326700.199364082682261611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:10FORECAST2023280-551.9843.62847.8040000.610.61FF19.98483.98187430.79210326700.195135570127661611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:10FORECAST2023280-545.37441.7243.5470000.60.6FF13.374485.374187430.79210326700.0595433382182411611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023280-545.37441.7243.5470000.610.61FF13.374484.374187430.79210326700.0595433382182411611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:08FORECAST2023280-545.37441.7243.5473.2662752000.580.58FF13.374484.374187432.17275194541.4115951417950.0595433382182411611314210DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:24FORECAST2023280-542.18840.69441.4414.7146414666667000.570.57FF10.188471.188187432.781317587182.04040874589520.0289274980520011611314210DRYL