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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Thursday, July 6, 2023

[ Wednesday, July 5, 2023 | Index | Today | Friday, July 7, 2023 ]

DAY 279 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/07/2023 04:00:10 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
MH
MEDIUM HIGH

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 72.76°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 57.89°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 65.32°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.915
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 41
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 511

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.03 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.03 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 186
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 430.16 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -6

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 4
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 50.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-07 04:00:10OBSERVATION2023279-672.7599257.8899465.324930001.031.03FF40.75992510.75992186430.15588521069 00.9154293065957716 51415150DRYMH
2023-07-07 00:00:02FORECAST2023279-566.2950.1858.2350001.031.03FF34.29504.29187430.79210326700.774781572188851641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 12:00:04FORECAST2023279-565.82250.2758.0460001.031.03FF33.822503.822187430.79210326700.761102678148941641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 08:00:02FORECAST2023279-566.72251.09858.910001.031.03FF34.722504.722187430.79210326700.787005337196081641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 04:00:07FORECAST2023279-565.5749.51457.5420001.031.03FF33.57503.57187430.79210326700.753553342882781641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-06 00:00:03FORECAST2023279-666.8348.99257.9110001.031.03FF34.83497.83186430.1558852106900.789999790517131641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 20:00:01FORECAST2023279-667.06449.49658.280001.031.03FF35.064499.064186430.1558852106900.796402436465541641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 16:00:01FORECAST2023279-667.06451.63859.3510001.031.03FF35.064499.064186430.1558852106900.796402436465541641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 12:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.25251.6259.9360001.031.03FF36.252500.252186430.1558852106900.827076269814241641415145DRYM
2023-07-05 08:00:04FORECAST2023279-666.88452.14259.5130001.031.03FF34.884498.884186430.1558852106900.791487711573491641315220DRYL
2023-07-05 04:00:08FORECAST2023279-667.17251.6259.3960001.031.03FF35.172499.172186430.1558852106900.799317887875691641415222.5DRYL
2023-07-05 00:00:04FORECAST2023279-667.53253.58260.55700.011811030.011811031.031.04181103FF35.532495.532186430.1558852106900.808853899457551641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 20:00:05FORECAST2023279-666.77652.93459.8550001.031.03FF34.776493.776186430.1558852106900.788505661022151641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 16:00:02FORECAST2023279-665.64252.14258.8920001.031.03FF33.642491.642186430.1558852106900.755723234717021641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:03FORECAST2023279-666.8351.94459.3870001.031.03FF34.83494.83186430.1558852106900.789999790517131641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:04FORECAST2023279-667.58652.37659.9810001.031.03FF35.586496.586186430.1558852106900.810260002957981641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:20FORECAST2023279-666.41652.08859.2520001.031.03FF34.416494.416186430.1558852106900.77838721988611641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023279-665.91252.17859.0450001.031.03FF33.912488.912186430.1558852106900.763767947330651641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:06FORECAST2023279-667.35252.39459.8730001.031.03FF35.352494.352186430.1558852106900.804121030055661641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:06FORECAST2023279-668.16252.30460.2330001.031.03FF36.162496.162186430.1558852106900.824860855519721641315140DRYM
2023-07-03 12:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.7253.4261.070001.031.03FF36.72496.72186430.1558852106900.838307611795341641315140DRYM
2023-07-03 09:27:25FORECAST2023279-669.24253.97861.610001.031.03FF37.242497.242186430.1558852106900.850262321894551651315145DRYM
2023-07-03 08:00:03FORECAST2023279-668.7254.2361.47549.312068001.031.03FF36.72494.72186449.9037346545822.1856835567410.83830761179534164131118DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:16FORECAST2023279-667.62253.660.61149.6787902001.031.03FF35.622492.622186450.0415252011322.3575185117550.81119386945467164131124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:05FORECAST2023279-667.31652.14259.7290001.031.03FF35.316492.316186430.1558852106900.803166011291631641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.05453.00660.530001.031.03FF36.054494.054186430.1558852106900.822178764242241641315140DRYM
2023-07-02 16:00:05FORECAST2023279-667.42453.31260.3680001.031.03FF35.424490.424186430.1558852106900.806022631417211641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:10FORECAST2023279-669.40454.51861.9610001.031.03FF37.404494.404186430.1558852106900.853849672121151651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 08:00:07FORECAST2023279-669.40454.33861.8710001.031.03FF37.404493.404186430.1558852106900.853849672121151651315145DRYM
2023-07-02 04:00:11FORECAST2023279-668.9955.07662.0330001.031.03FF36.99494.99186430.1558852106900.844566486956991641315140DRYM
2023-07-02 00:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.03654.21261.1240001.031.03FF36.036493.036186430.1558852106900.82172924912621641315140DRYM
2023-07-01 20:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.57654.71661.6460001.031.03FF36.576491.576186430.1558852106900.834903471065511641315140DRYM
2023-07-01 16:00:07FORECAST2023279-668.19854.73461.4660001.031.03FF36.198490.198186430.1558852106900.825749167507711641315140DRYM
2023-07-01 12:00:04FORECAST2023279-668.64855.1361.8890001.031.03FF36.648490.648186430.1558852106900.83661128545651641315140DRYM
2023-07-01 08:00:06FORECAST2023279-669.27854.42861.8530001.031.03FF37.278494.278186430.1558852106900.851064529944451651315145DRYM
2023-07-01 04:00:20FORECAST2023279-669.02653.2461.1330001.031.03FF37.026494.026186430.1558852106900.845388793198071641315140DRYM
2023-07-01 00:00:06FORECAST2023279-670.84454.19462.5190001.031.03FF38.844489.844186430.1558852106900.883203848599791651315145DRYM
2023-06-30 20:00:06FORECAST2023279-670.53853.65462.0960001.031.03FF38.538492.538186430.1558852106900.877343922222941651315145DRYM
2023-06-30 16:00:08FORECAST2023279-670.89853.1562.0240001.031.03FF38.898486.898186430.1558852106900.88421706395781651315145DRYM
2023-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023279-666.88451.6259.2520001.031.03FF34.884486.884186430.1558852106900.791487711573491641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:07FORECAST2023279-667.78451.54859.6660001.031.03FF35.784491.784186430.1558852106900.815361193496811641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:11FORECAST2023279-666.18250.88258.5320001.031.03FF34.182486.182186430.1558852106900.771664793162231641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023279-665.350.34257.8210001.031.03FF33.3483.3186430.1558852106900.745325229466551641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:07FORECAST2023279-665.82250.28858.0550001.031.03FF33.822486.822186430.1558852106900.761102678148941641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:06FORECAST2023279-666.39852.26859.3330001.031.03FF34.398488.398186430.1558852106900.777874152396011641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023279-666.36250.25258.3070001.031.03FF34.362483.362186430.1558852106900.776845989820041641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:06FORECAST2023279-667.150.75658.9280001.031.03FF35.1488.1186430.1558852106900.797377042851181641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:19FORECAST2023279-665.78649.83857.8120001.031.03FF33.786479.786186430.1558852106900.760031991175791641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:05FORECAST2023279-669.83652.8861.3580001.061.06FF37.836489.836186430.1558852106900.863132541651141651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 20:00:07FORECAST2023279-671.81654.82463.320001.041.04FF39.816494.816186430.1558852106900.900497451071721651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 16:00:08FORECAST2023279-671.27654.26662.7710001.041.04FF39.276494.276186430.1558852106900.891135558068561651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023279-672.01454.01463.0140001.041.04FF40.014499.014186430.1558852106900.903778823021621651415150DRYMH
2023-06-28 08:00:08FORECAST2023279-670.48454.42862.4560001.071.07FF38.484495.484186430.1558852106900.876288839252031651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 04:00:16FORECAST2023279-663.93249.13656.5340001.041.04FF31.932475.932186430.1558852106900.701534164297261641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 00:00:08FORECAST2023279-659.05444.2451.6470001.081.08FF27.054479.054186430.1558852106900.5245703335851631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 20:00:05FORECAST2023279-658.24441.34249.7930001.061.06FF26.244469.244186430.1558852106900.493637620640461621315215DRYL
2023-06-27 16:00:10FORECAST2023279-659.93644.4252.1780001.071.07FF27.936468.936186430.1558852106900.558078720244451631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 12:00:10FORECAST2023279-660.2642.4451.350001.061.06FF28.26477.26186430.1558852106900.570297044860921631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023279-660.24242.56651.4040001.071.07FF28.242476.242186430.1558852106900.56961990082171631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-27 08:00:08FORECAST2023279-660.18843.10651.6473.7660488001.041.04FF28.188476.188186431.752835614561.62600224846280.567587247909561631314214DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:24FORECAST2023279-659.28838.98449.1364.8695230666667001.031.03FF27.288466.288186432.217864978012.10469486333590.53348715425851631314214DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:10FORECAST2023279-646.16640.67643.4210001.141.14FF14.166458.166186430.1558852106900.120390683499011611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023279-646.20240.7343.4660001.131.13FF14.202460.202186430.1558852106900.12108426387361611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023279-640.1935.47437.8320001.141.14FF8.19453.19186430.1558852106900.0403308108065511611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023279-640.1935.47437.8320001.171.17FF8.19455.19186430.1558852106900.0403308108065511611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-26 04:00:24FORECAST2023279-643.2540.44241.8460001.091.09FF11.25468.25186430.1558852106900.0731350710428441611315212.5DRYL