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MORA Debris Flow Hazard - View Day

Daily Debris Flow Hazard (DFH) for Tuesday, July 4, 2023

[ Monday, July 3, 2023 | Index | Today | Wednesday, July 5, 2023 ]

DAY 277 OF WATER YEAR 2023, FORECAST LAST UPDATED 07/05/2023 04:00:07 AM
According to the database, there were no geologic events (floods, debris flows, outburst floods, etc) on this day.

THIS DAY'S DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD CLASS:
M
MEDIUM

MODEL USED FOR HAZARD CLASS DETERMINATION:

DRY

MODEL VARIABLES AND OUTPUT:
Temperature at Paradise MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmax): 70.02°F
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (Tmin): 53.76°F
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (Tavg): 61.89°F

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE PERCENTILE (Tmax percentile): 0.860
Maximum Percentile on this day is based on 16 years of historic (1917-2017) records:

DEBRIS FLOW HAZARD MODEL:


Click to zoom in
Degree Days above 32°F
(DD32)
TODAY'S DD32: 38
18-DAY CUMULATIVE DD32: 445

DD32 is calculated as: DD32 = TMAX - 32
18-day Cumulative DD32 is the sum of DD32 for the last 18 days.
Precipitation at Paradise DAY 1: 0.00 in
DAY 1-3 (P3): 0.00 in
DAY 4-15 (P15): 1.41 in
18-DAY TOTAL (P18): 1.41 in

PRECIP THRESHOLD A (PA) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 2.5)

PRECIP THRESHOLD B (PB) EXCEEDED: False
P3 > (-0.67 * P15 + 4.5)
Snow at Paradise DEPTH: 0 in
SWE DAY: 184
CALCULATED SNOW DENSITY: 428.88 kg/m3
CALCULATED SWE: 0.00 in

SWE Day, Calculated Snow Density, and Calculated SWE based on work by Sturm and others (2010)
If Tavg > 32°F, snow melt is factored in at: M (in) = a(Tavg - T32), where a is between 0.0766 - 0.1312 in * °F-1 * day-1 (Currently 0.1039) and T32 = 32°F. This method is from Westerstrom (1982) in Kustas and others (1994) and converted to US customary units.
Seasonal Variables DAYS SINCE JULY 11: -8

July 11 is the average snow melt-out day (where snow depth goes down to 0 in) at Paradise
Calculated Variables D0: 5
D1: 1
D2: 3
D3: 1
D4: 5
D5: 1
HSdry: 45.0

These are primarly for the Dry-weather debris flow hazard model, but calculated every day.
HSdry = (([D0 + D1 + D2] * D3) * D4) / D5
See model (right) to figure out how D0 - D5 are calculated.
Notes

UPDATE HISTORY AND MODEL OUTPUT NOTES:
You can also use this to see how the forecast changes over time. Note that "FORECAST" is the forecasted model whereas "OBSERVED" is the actual observed values for that day.
Show/Hide: Observation | Forecast | Notes | Status

D TYPE WY DOFWY DS0SP T_MAX T_MIN T_AVG SP P1 P3 P15 P18 PA PB DD32 DD32_18 SWE_DAY SNOW_P SWE T_MAX_PERC T_MAX_PERC_YRS D0 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 HS_DRY FCST_TYPE HAZ_CLASS
2023-07-05 04:00:07OBSERVATION2023277-870.0199653.7600261.889990001.411.41FF38.01996445.01996184428.8761731923 00.8604917050477316 51315145DRYM
2023-07-05 00:00:02FORECAST2023277-765.10247.8456.4710001.411.41FF33.102440.102185429.5172449264500.728097876377061641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 12:00:01FORECAST2023277-764.445.03254.7160001.411.41FF32.4439.4185429.5172449264500.705134756141741641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 08:00:02FORECAST2023277-765.26446.27455.7690001.411.41FF33.264440.264185429.5172449264500.733268034531221641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 04:00:18FORECAST2023277-764.38246.455.3910001.411.41FF32.382439.382185429.5172449264500.704534398121091641315220DRYL
2023-07-04 00:00:03FORECAST2023277-864.99447.06656.030001.411.41FF32.994434.994184428.876173192300.72462365870211641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 20:00:02FORECAST2023277-866.34446.4956.4170001.411.41FF34.344437.344184428.876173192300.766420922661341641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 16:00:02FORECAST2023277-866.93848.70457.8210001.411.41FF34.938437.938184428.876173192300.783634544023781641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 12:00:03FORECAST2023277-866.68649.24457.9650001.411.41FF34.686437.686184428.876173192300.776422930549671641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 09:27:24FORECAST2023277-866.93849.71258.3250001.411.41FF34.938437.938184428.876173192300.783634544023781641315220DRYL
2023-07-03 08:00:02FORECAST2023277-866.6549.69458.17256.86968001.411.41FF34.65436.65184451.6100363057925.6829182494980.77538167561547164131124DRYL
2023-07-03 04:00:14FORECAST2023277-866.09249.08257.58757.0350758001.411.41FF34.092436.092184451.6714805921125.7611171322690.75889530385772164131124DRYL
2023-07-03 00:00:04FORECAST2023277-866.39850.10858.2530001.411.41FF34.398436.398184428.876173192300.768016467238061641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 20:00:03FORECAST2023277-867.20848.99258.10001.411.41FF35.208436.208184428.876173192300.791210036469941641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 16:00:03FORECAST2023277-865.67849.5557.6140001.411.41FF33.678433.678184428.876173192300.746251290567211641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 12:00:08FORECAST2023277-866.81248.81257.8120001.411.41FF34.812434.812184428.876173192300.780045665375291641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 08:00:05FORECAST2023277-866.34448.84857.5960001.411.41FF34.344433.344184428.876173192300.766420922661341641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 04:00:10FORECAST2023277-866.5649.76658.1630001.411.41FF34.56434.56184428.876173192300.772766560646621641315220DRYL
2023-07-02 00:00:03FORECAST2023277-865.91248.66857.290001.411.41FF33.912433.912184428.876173192300.753440313109491641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 20:00:03FORECAST2023277-865.8449.24457.5420001.411.41FF33.84431.84184428.876173192300.751239975006611641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 16:00:07FORECAST2023277-865.62449.42457.5240001.411.41FF33.624431.624184428.876173192300.744576815126921641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 12:00:03FORECAST2023277-865.82248.77657.2990001.411.41FF33.822431.822184428.876173192300.750688263775431641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 08:00:05FORECAST2023277-866.72248.66857.6950001.411.41FF34.722433.722184428.876173192300.777461439688051641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 04:00:19FORECAST2023277-867.15449.33458.2440001.411.41FF35.154435.154184428.876173192300.789707543917331641315220DRYL
2023-07-01 00:00:05FORECAST2023277-865.73249.38857.560001.411.41FF33.732428.732184428.876173192300.747919992456411641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 20:00:05FORECAST2023277-864.81448.14656.480001.411.41FF32.814432.814184428.876173192300.718785247281181641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 16:00:07FORECAST2023277-864.36447.9356.1470001.411.41FF32.364428.364184428.876173192300.703933479076081641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 12:00:04FORECAST2023277-866.14647.85857.0020001.411.41FF34.146432.146184428.876173192300.760518932963721641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 08:00:06FORECAST2023277-865.76847.5756.6690001.411.41FF33.768434.768184428.876173192300.749029240371221641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 04:00:10FORECAST2023277-865.85848.07456.9660001.411.41FF33.858431.858184428.876173192300.751791036448271641315220DRYL
2023-06-30 00:00:04FORECAST2023277-866.50649.78458.1450001.411.41FF34.506428.506184428.876173192300.771189305869851641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 20:00:05FORECAST2023277-867.53249.62258.5770001.411.41FF35.532431.532184428.876173192300.800091553904471641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 16:00:05FORECAST2023277-866.63249.98258.3070001.411.41FF34.632432.632184428.876173192300.77486002013971641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 12:00:05FORECAST2023277-866.9247.87657.3980001.411.41FF34.92428.92184428.876173192300.783123927955471641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 08:00:05FORECAST2023277-866.79448.88457.8390001.411.41FF34.794431.794184428.876173192300.779530199629371641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 04:00:17FORECAST2023277-865.9347.71456.8220001.411.41FF33.93425.93184428.876173192300.753988766491351641315220DRYL
2023-06-29 00:00:04FORECAST2023277-867.42450.12658.7750001.441.44FF35.424430.424184428.876173192300.797156551926861641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 20:00:06FORECAST2023277-867.17249.8258.4960001.421.42FF35.172430.172184428.876173192300.790209077447431641315220DRYL
2023-06-28 16:00:07FORECAST2023277-869.40451.11660.260001.421.42FF37.404430.404184428.876173192300.846835417079461641315140DRYM
2023-06-28 12:00:05FORECAST2023277-871.3351.18861.2590001.421.42FF39.33433.33184428.876173192300.88672187457751651315145DRYM
2023-06-28 08:00:08FORECAST2023277-868.88251.40460.1430001.451.45FF36.882432.882184428.876173192300.834592673142011641315140DRYM
2023-06-28 04:00:15FORECAST2023277-868.23452.2560.2420001.421.42FF36.234424.234184428.876173192300.81854057289611641315140DRYM
2023-06-28 00:00:07FORECAST2023277-872.9553.04262.9960001.461.46FF40.95436.95184428.876173192300.91404596721581651315145DRYM
2023-06-27 20:00:04FORECAST2023277-870.12452.71861.4210001.441.44FF38.124429.124184428.876173192300.862714176825311651315145DRYM
2023-06-27 16:00:09FORECAST2023277-868.46852.0760.2690001.451.45FF36.468426.468184428.876173192300.824446034941321641315140DRYM
2023-06-27 12:00:09FORECAST2023277-870.86254.60862.7350001.441.44FF38.862432.862184428.876173192300.877786383950071651315145DRYM
2023-06-27 09:14:28FORECAST2023277-870.86254.73462.7980001.451.45FF38.862431.862184428.876173192300.877786383950071651315145DRYM
2023-06-27 08:00:07FORECAST2023277-870.7953.72662.2589.5455728001.421.42FF38.79431.79184432.925001677524.13251712045290.876369074544841651313127DRYL
2023-06-27 04:00:23FORECAST2023277-867.04651.2659.1539.9685126666667001.411.41FF35.046426.046184433.102133756534.31738410631230.78668362015921641313212DRYL
2023-06-27 00:00:09FORECAST2023277-866.75851.04458.9010001.521.52FF34.758428.758184428.876173192300.778497197773561641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 20:00:02FORECAST2023277-867.83851.4459.6390001.511.51FF35.838430.838184428.876173192300.808267896093041641315220DRYL
2023-06-26 12:00:08FORECAST2023277-868.66652.0760.3680001.521.52FF36.666429.666184428.876173192300.829346919650231641315140DRYM
2023-06-26 08:00:07FORECAST2023277-868.39651.45859.9270001.551.55FF36.396432.396184428.876173192300.822642049979971641315140DRYM
2023-06-26 04:00:23FORECAST2023277-869.60251.94460.7730001.471.47FF37.602439.602184428.876173192300.851318390395051651315145DRYM
2023-06-26 00:00:06FORECAST2023277-872.19454.69863.4460001.51.5FF40.194450.194184428.876173192300.901977584518231651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 20:00:06FORECAST2023277-872.26654.73463.50001.491.49FF40.266455.266184428.876173192300.903177647400481651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 16:00:04FORECAST2023277-870.91651.72861.3220001.431.43FF38.916446.916184428.876173192300.878841876015041651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 12:00:06FORECAST2023277-866.84838.42652.6370001.351.35FF34.848442.848184428.876173192300.781074523355311641315220DRYL
2023-06-25 08:00:05FORECAST2023277-871.61838.42655.0220001.351.35FF39.618432.618184428.876173192300.891984176014181651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 04:00:11FORECAST2023277-876.5549.47863.0140001.361.36FF44.55455.55184428.876173192300.956828668274351651315145DRYM
2023-06-25 00:00:09FORECAST2023277-866.5655.25660.9080001.411.41FF34.56446.56184428.876173192300.772766560646621641315220DRYL
2023-06-24 20:00:06FORECAST2023277-859.25253.656.4260001.41.4FF27.252434.252184428.876173192300.516649380901331631315217.5DRYL
2023-06-24 16:00:06FORECAST2023277-855.07649.13652.1060001.371.37FF23.076406.076184428.876173192300.358751031241521621315215DRYL
2023-06-24 12:00:06FORECAST2023277-844.85239.75842.3050001.351.35FF12.852405.852184428.876173192300.0884420034231881611315212.5DRYL
2023-06-24 08:00:08FORECAST2023277-844.85239.75842.3050001.341.34FF12.852388.852184428.876173192300.0884420034231881611215210DRYL
2023-06-24 04:00:13FORECAST2023277-843.75441.05442.4040001.421.42FF11.754382.754184428.876173192300.0725917944313181611215210DRYL